Disruption? Maybe Not.

Lots of companies and lots of people have been at the "telecom disruption" game for quite some time, beginning way back with the Carterfone decision and MCI's assault on the long distance calling market. We have had Internet service providers, competitive local exchange carriers, hosted service providers, application providers, instant messaging providers, portals, VoIP providers, cable companies, satellite providers and others attacking one part or another of the global telecom value chain.

Through it all, global communications service revenue has kept climbing. In fact, you'd be hard pressed to find any year when that didn't happen. Perhaps the issue is not disruption at all, but rather transformation. There will be new spaces created, and a rearrangement of older spaces. But nothing has stopped global revenue from climbing, year after year.

Of course, all the analysts could be wrong. Some cataclysm could yet await. But it sure doesn't appear to be something you would build your company on.

Another Outage for BlackBerry

U.S. Internet-based users of the Research in Motion BlackBerry service might have noticed, and might still be noticing odd behavior from their handhelds. Like, no mail parts of Friday, and then huge dumps of what you thought was archived mail thereafter. If so, it might be because RIM had another outage of some significance last Friday, Sept. 7. That's two significant outages this year.

All of us may someday lament the fact that no service we now enjoy and rely upon has the ruggedness and uptime of the old public switched network.

Apple iPhone Price Cut is, Oddly, About the Buzz

Equity analysts and presumably some investors are said to be quite unhappy about the $200 price reduction on the eight gigabyte vesion of the iPhone, which now sell for $399, $200 less than the price consumers paid just three months ago when the iPhone launched on June 29. "Leaving margin on the table" is the problem.

Apple announced a credit of $100 for early buyers after the price reduction. The credit is a bit unusual. The timing of the price cut is quite unusual. Apple has in the past waited as much as a year to drop prices on a device.

Some say the move is a significant strategic and tactical misstep. Maybe. But Apple once again gets huge buzz, refocusing attention a couple months after the splashy launch. Lower than anticipated sales is unlikely to be a drive, as the company stands by its initial projection of one million sales by the end of the quarter.

It might sell twice as many. Nobody knows yet. Undoubtedly some thought was given beforehand to the customer irritation factor. The credit could have been part of the plan, not an afterthought when a hue and cry arose about the unfairness of the price cut for early buyers.

Yes, there is some margin hit. But Apple now stands ready to move past the "gotta have it" early adopter crowd and occupy other niches in the market. Just what niches is the issue. Everybody intuitively understands that a BlackBerry is "email in your pocket."

I'm still having trouble coming up with a simple description of what precise niche the iPhone occupies. It might be the "heavy iPod user who doesn't want to carry a mobile phone." The iPhone might simply be a communicating iPod. It doesn't seem quite right to say it occupies the "whole Internet in your pocket" position.

It might more plausibly be something like an "easy to use mobile phone" positioning, analogous to the way the early Apple PCs held that niche in a world of command line interfaces. Graphical user interface is then the idea; "mouse"-based instead of "C: prompt"; finger rather than scroll wheel or button.

With the price cuts, Apple gets a chance to establish something more like its ultimate market position, as enough users are aggregated to figure out how end users view the device. Right now it still seems to be a device whose niche is evolving.

Microsoft Vista Service Pack Near Beta

As a follow-up to his email sent to Microsoft execs about Vista issues, Alec Saunders says: "Coincident with my note to Microsoft about Windows Vista quality yesterday, Microsoft let it be known that Vista SP1 would be going into beta in a couple of weeks, and surprise surprise, a substantial focus is on quality."

"Following the email I sent, two Microsoft senior execs responded yesterday — Steven Sinofsky who runs with the Windows platform organization, and Jeff Raikes, President of the Business Division. Among the many things in Raikes' mails was a question about how well I liked Office 2007, a product that I absolutely love. When I told him that, he observed that Sinofsky was the VP in charge of shipping Office 2007, and that he was applying many of the same methodologies to Windows Vista."

"Sinofsky gently chided me for having rose colored glasses, observing that PnP in Windows 95 routinely fried his network cards. Perhaps, he was saying, Windows Vista isn't as bad as I've described it. Nonetheless, he acknowledged that two key areas of focus for his team right now are application compatibility, and the video subsystem. Many of the Windows updates that go out are focused on these two areas, and that seems to be a good chunk of the focus in SP1 as well."

"Time will tell. As John McKinley pointed out, this is a franchise issue for them. They have to get it right."

Mitel Inter-Tel Merger: Dan York is Available

Maybe LinkedIn or Plaxo is useful for such things, though I prefer Facebook. So if you can help Dan, contact him at Facebook. His last day at Mitel is September 21. Here's what he's thinking:

"What's next? I'm not sure, to be honest, as there are several pathways. I'd love to run back up to the crow's nest and perform that kind of analysis, investigation, exploration/communication or evangelism for a company in the IP telephony and unified communications space, especially with a focus on social networking and social media.

I think its a great fit with my technical, strategic, marketing and communication skills - and I think sites like Facebook will have a profound effect on our communication. I'd love to help explore and guide people through that space. Having said that, I definitely recognize that those roles are few and far between. I may look into something focused in the VOIP security space, where I've obviously got some great depth and experience, or something related to IETF standards, another strong interest of mine. I've considered some form of strategic consulting, or joining the analyst ranks. There are a couple of books I'd like to write. There's a startup idea I'm pondering. As is obvious, I completely enjoy blogging, podcasting, etc. and may pursue a role focused in those areas - or in community development, another strength. And then there's always returning to my open source roots in the Linux space...

Whatever the case, my aim is to be with of an organization that is part of the disruption in this space (or at the very least chronicling the disruption).

Right now I'd love to hear from folks who have openings in any of those various areas (or know of such openings). Please do email me - or contact me via Facebook or Skype. For folks in the IT telephony/unified communication's space, I'll be out at the Internet Telephony Conference & Expo next week in Los Angeles and would be delighted to speak with folks there. (As I mentioned previously, I'll be speaking there.) Information about my background can be obtained at LinkedIn (http://www.linkedin.com/in/danyork )

In my ideal world, I'd love to find a role that lets me continue to live in Burlington, VT, (with some amount of travel) since we're nicely settled in here and love the area."

Microsoft iPhone Competitor?

Since every other manufacturer of handhelds has been scrambling to create new devices that can compete with Apple's iPhone, it is only logical that Microsoft will do so as well. SoMindy Mount, corporate vice president and CFO for Microsoft's Entertainment and Devices Division, says it's not "unreasonable" to think that Microsoft will integrate photo, music, and touchscreen features into a Windows Mobile product in the future.

Microsoft's idea with Windows Mobile has been to move everyday business capabilities, such as accessing e-mail, from the PC to the mobile device. However, "Being able to do pictures and music is something that consumers are going to want, so it's a natural thing for us to want in our product road map," she says.

Has Muni Wi-Fi Missed the Window?

Municipal Wi-Fi arguably had a market window within which it had to get traction or lose out to cable companies and especially telcos. With EarthLink now backing out of the remaining deals it originally negotiated, that window could slam shut. That isn't to say there might not be some niches it could fill, but they will be smaller niches.

The higher end part of the fully mobile market will be able to buy fourth generation mobile services, broadband based on 700 MHz spectrum, WiMAX and 3G broadband services. The tethered part of the market will simply find cable modem, Digital Subscriber Line and fiber to home services too attractive to ignore as well. The out of office portion of the market increasingly can use T-Mobile hotspots, hotel Wi-Fi and airport Wi-Fi.

Clearwire and satellite broadband are going to make more sense in most rural markets, though independent ISPs continue to offer basic tethered access using Wi-Fi technologies adapted for more focused line of sight deployment.

Wi-Fi had to get into place before WiMAX arrived, and it looks like it simply is too late to be a sizable mass market access opportunity. That isn't to say hotspots are not a business at all; simply that it is a niche.

That said, sizable niches do exist for providers of satellite broadband in some segments of the market. WildBlue, ViaSat, Gilat and HughesNet prove that the niche exists. And Spaceway might someday create additional niches in the smaller enterprise market as well. Wi-Fi, though perhaps not of the muni variety, might continue to provide such a niche.