"Steve Jobs Was Right"

"Steve Jobs was right," says at&t VP Ralph de la Vega. Right about slashing the price of the iPhone sooner than att&t would typically have done. AT&T Inc., owner of the biggest U.S. mobile phone service, said the increase in sales of the iPhone has been "significant" since maker Apple Inc. cut the price by a third. How much?

at&t appears also to have been at least partly right about the iPhone's impact. Sprint and Verizon executives both acknowdledge at least a temporary increase in churn immediately after iPhone hit the market, and again after the recent price reduction.

Perhaps of more lasting significance is the ability of iPhone users to use Wi-Fi for connectivity in place of the EDGE network. Though it is doubtful many users will settle for a single "do everything device" that primarily connects only when within range of Wi-Fi networks, it will be interesting to watch whether there is a developing market for devices used primarily as media players.

The reason is simply that if the primary use mode is media, not voice, users might be able to live with sideloading and "spot" access of connectivity at home, at work and at public hotspots. And if there is a market for that, there could be a market for other Web-based devices that have value even when they are not "always connected."

That in turn is significant because it could offer some new options for providers of services and devices optimized for Web applications rather than voice. The analogy is notebook computers, that are highly useful even though they are not always connected. It might be possible to create significant new business models for devices that are "mobile" but not "always connected."

That, in turn, is highly significant for application or service providers that do not want to depend on the legacy mobile connectivity providers for access and transport.

Orange Gets iPhone in France

France Telecom's Orange has sealed the iPhone deal, it appears. France Telecom CEO Didier Lombard says the iPhone would be distributed in France "before Christmas, probably in November." Orange does not appear likely to subsidize the handset.

Address Books for Landlines?

Embarq is adding an address book feature to its home phones, allowing people to look up an entry and dial it by speaking a name into the handset.

Embarq also is testing a text-messaging function for home phones in some markets. When a text message is sent to a land-line number, the home phone rings, converts the message into audio, and plays it back. The land-line phone user can reply with an audio message or press a button to send a standard text response.

You have to admire Embarq's efforts to add features to landlines that are standard for mobiles. You also have to wonder how well address books, which are personal, and text messages, also personal, are going to translate into a "public" setting, which most landline phones represent.

One-person households won't have that problem, of course. "Public" and "personal" are the same, in such cases. But it will be an interesting test.

Sprint Launches Airave Femtocell Service

I happen to live in one of the neighborhoods in Denver where Sprint is rolling out its new Airave femtocell network, and i do have mobile service with Sprint (I also use Verizon, T-Mobile and at&t). That doesn't necessarily mean I am going to test it or use it, but I can. The service also is available in some parts of Indianapolis.

Make no mistake: this is a landline replacement service. In my case the incremental cost of the femtocell service, offset by the abandonment of my landline, would save $20 a month or so. That might be an interesting number for lots of consumers.

It makes possible unlimited incoming, outgoing, and long distance calls using any handset Sprint sells and supports. As I have argued before, handset freedom will be vitally important in the fixed-mobile convergence space. Dual-mode phones don't make as much sense to me, for precisely that reason.

Airave vastly improves indoor mobile coverage (something desperately needed in my neigborhood. All you have to do is watch all my neighbors out on their front porches talking on their mobiles.

Airave costs $15 per month for individuals and $30 per month for families, above the existing wireless plan any user has.

The Airave base station costs $49.99. Sprint plans to make the AIRAVE available later this year to customers in the remainder of Denver and Indianapolis, along with Nashville, and to customers nationwide in 2008.

The Samsung-built Airave base station covers approximately 5,000 square feet. Up to three Sprint subscribers can use the AIRAVE simultaneously as long as they are registered with the device.

Airave is Sprint's answer to T-Mobile's HotSpot@Home service. So watch the deployment numbers, when they ultimately are available.

T-Mobile Sells iPhone in German Market

T-Mobile will sell Apple's iPhone in Germany for 399 euros ($558) each. Service plans weren't immediately announced. As in the United States, where Apple picked at&t as its exclusive network services provider, customers in Germany will have to sign up for two years to buy and use the 8-gigabyte version of the phone-iPod-Web appliance.

In the U.K. market, where O2 has a five-year exclusive on service for the iPhone. And a pattern seems to be developing in terms of the business model.

Estimates of how much revenue O2 is going to share with Apple vary between 10 percent to 40 per cent and it is likely both figures are correct. The delta is what Apple gets paid based on the degree of churn the device can induce.

Apple might get 10 percent of revenue when an existing O2 customer gets an iPhone, but Apple might get the heftier percentage when a customer switches service providers and becomes an O2 customer.

at&t pays Apple $3 a month when one of its existing customers buys an iPhone plan, but $11 a month when a customer switches carries and becomes an at&t customer.

O2's ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) is around £23, so 10 per cent of that would be £2.30 while 40 per cent comes to £9.20.

3G GPhone?

Now that Adsense for Mobile is launched in 13 markets, the next issue is whether, or when, Google will launch a branded handset, and whether it actually will bid to own its own U.S. mobile broadband network.

DigiTimes says Google is pondering both EDGE and 3G versions of its branded handset. And DigiTimes says it has been told Google might opt for 3G. A switch from EDGE likely would push back the introduction into the first half of next year instead of this year.

High Tech Computer is said to be the manufacturing contractor for the Gphone.

3G would make lots of sense for a device so Web browsing centric.

No Wireline in This at&t Bundle

In a nod to new market realities, at&t is offering a package of wireless calling and residential high-speed Internet without wireline voice as a mandatory part of the package. at&t will launch the program in seven cities.

Bought separately, the wireless plan would cost about $40 while the 1.5 Mbps DSL would cost about $20. The advantage today is avoidance of the need to buy a wireline voice connection to get the DSL service as a stand alone. It's a half step to full naked DSL.

The $60 a month package is aimed at younger users and college students, and
includes 450 wireless minutes of "any time" wireless use plus 5,000 minutes on nights and weekends, plus free calls to other AT&T mobile customers. Customers also can roll over unused "any time" minutes.

The digital subscriber line service operates at a 1.5 Mbps rate downstream. The same plan is offered for $65 in the former BellSouth territory.

Later this year, AT&T plans to offer a naked DSL connection at about half that speed for $19.95 a month to all customers. That offer will put real pressure on the remaining dial-up connections.