Google Nexus One Unveiling Jan. 5, 2010?

Google seems to be gearing up for a Jan. 5, 2010 unveiling of its Nexus One smartphone. The somewhat controversial move might be seen as a misguided effort that will undercut Google's effort to support broad adoption of its Android operating system by all the major service providers.

Worse still, in the worst-case scenario, Google is aiming to become a service provider in its own right. That seems highly unlikely. That really would strain relationships with its carrier partners. Nor does Google seem to be angling to become a hardware supplier in the same way that Apple is.

True, it seems to be fostering development of handsets. But even a Google-branded device might be seen as a way of pointing out what it thinks could be done.

One suspects that the unveiling is more of a demonstration project, intended to showcase what might be done with the Android operating system when paired with mobile hardware. One reason for that belief is that unlocked smartphone devices are expensive enough that few actually are sold in the U.S. market.

More seriously, T-Mobile is rumored to be readying a contract-subsidized Nexus One deal, which would put the out-of-pocket cost of the device within typical ranges for some other leading smartphone models. The typical model is a two-year contract in exchange for a device subsidy, and that is what most observers expect to see.

That is a fairly well established business model, giving T-Mobile a period of device exclusivity before it also is made available to other service providers.

The other angle is that if Google were really serious about becoming a player in either the device or service provider business, it likely would have readied deals in multiple countries.

The key thing is whether the user experience winds up being something users clearly can perceive as offering a "delightful" experience. That would seem to be the point. Whether Google can deliver remains to be seen.

How Significant Will Google "Nexus One" Be?

It's increasingly clear that a new Google-branded "Nexus One" unlocked smartphone will be sold in 2010. What remains unclear is how much impact the device will have, for a number of prosaic reasons. Unless Google has designed a dual-mode, multi-band device capable of operating on both GSM and CDMA air interfaces, roughly half the market will be inaccessible. Even if the device is GSM certified, it has to be built using a radio operating across all U.S. GSM bands, and that isn't entirely clear, yet.

It might be the case that the Nexus One simply has not yet been certified for AT&T's 3G spectrum bands, or for Sprint and Verizon networks using CDMA. For an unlocked device to work across all four of the major U.S. networks, that would be required.

So far, it appears the device is certified only on some of the U.S. GSM bands. What that means is that T-Mobile USA absolutely will be able to support the Nexus One. It might work on AT&T's spectrum as well, but it isn't completely clear that is the case, at the moment. So far, AT&T has declined to offer an Android-based device in its device line up.

That issue should be clarified soon enough. The other issue is the retail price of the phone. Unlocked phones can be bought now in the U.S. market, but few consumers do so, because of the price. Perhaps Google plans to subsidize the device, but if not, Nexus One will not be a mass market device at the start. Few consumers buy devices at $600 when a subsidized device costs $200 to $300.

Perhaps Google plans to offer an installment plan, which will help. If the Nexus One really provides a better user experience, it will be helpful. But if it is sold at full retail price, and works on just one U.S. GSM network, its impact will be limited, to begin with.

Google "Nexus One" Available in January 2010

A new Google-braned phone called the "Nexus One" will be available in January 2010, it now appears. The Android device apparently resembles the unlocked HTC Touch, runs Android 2.1 on a Snapdragon chip and has two microphones, according to a report by eWeek, supporting voice-to-text features.

The move represents a new tack for Google, which to this point has relied solely on handset and carrier partners to propagate Android-powered device in the retail market, with T-Mobile, Verizon Wireless and Sprint all selling Android devices.

Some observers say Google is bothered by a problem frequently encountered with open source software: incompatibilities that frustrate users and provide a less-than-optimal end user experience. Others might suggest Google simply wants to showcase what is possible by more-tightly integating hardware and software, as Apple's iPhone is able to do, providing a more-enjoyable and useful experience.

Why the Google "Mobile Lab" Test?

Whatever else Google may want to demonstrate with its "mobile lab" test, which apparently has Google employees globally testing an Android smartphone, the company likely wants to explore and highlight the use of the mobile device as an intelligent sensor able to use voice input, location and camera features to enrich the "what's around here" features of Google's search experience.

Google first launched "search by voice" about a year ago, and "looking ahead, we dream of combining voice recognition with our language translation infrastructure to provide in-conversation translation," says Google VP Vic Gundotra.

Google recently also introduced "What's Nearby" for Google Maps on Android 1.6+ devices, available as an update from Android Market. The application returns a list of the 10 closest places, including restaurants, shops and other points of interest near a user's location. Local product inventory will be added in 2010.

Visual search also is developing, Gundotra says. A picture taken by a Google-equipped device will return relevant search results based on that visual information, including information on landmarks, works of art, and products.

"Today you frame and snap a photo to get results, but one day visual search will be as natural as pointing a finger," says Gundotra.

Google Phone Appears to be an Unlocked GSM Device

Google's rumored phone appears to be an unlocked GSM device, to be sold under its own brand name, and built by HTC, TechCrunch reports.


What seems clear enough is that Google employees are testing something. Google says it is testing something it calls a "mobile lab," said to be "a device that combines innovative hardware from a partner with software that runs on Android to experiment with new mobile features and capabilities, and we shared this device with Google employees across the globe."

"Unfortunately, because dogfooding is a process exclusively for Google employees, we cannot share specific product details. We hope to share more after our dogfood diet," Google says.

A Real "Google Phone" Coming?

A Google-branded smartphone running a version of Android not yet seen on other devices is coming, and it will feature a large screen, Gizmodo speculates. Since any such device presumably would be built directly to Google's specifications, it is possible the device would feature a more-tightly integrated hardware and software experience than is possible on "open" devices.

Oddly enough, such an approach would resemble nothing so much as the iPhone experience, which is just about the diametrical opposite of an open approach.

What's a Google Phone?

Apparently, just about any smart phone with broadband access, according to Financial Times reporters Maija Palmer and Paul Taylor. Google head of mobile operations Vic Gundotra says "it had seen 50 times more searches on Apple‘s iPhone than any other mobile handset."

“We thought it was a mistake and made our engineers check the logs again,” Gundotra says. "If the trend continues and other handset manufacturers follow Apple’s lead in making web access easy, the number of mobile searches will overtake fixed internet searches “within the next several years."

More mobile searches than fixed! I don't know about you, but my sense is that if that volume of activity can happen on most broadband-connected smart phones, Google won't have to worry much about creating a "Google phone," any more than it has to worry about a "Google PC."

Google has never separated out its mobile revenues but Gundotra says the business was growing “above expectations”, both in terms of usage and revenues.

Executives at at&t Wireless have said average revenue per user for iPhone users was nearly double the average, because iPhone plans come with capacious data plans.

Android Phones in February?

One would assume that Android phone developers will want to show prototypes of possible devices at the Mobile World Congress in February. This screen sort is supposed to be one of the concepts.

Keep in mind that this is supposed to be a functional prototype on which the developers and engineers can do their work, not a polished industrial design. That sort of thing almost has to be done before February, if Google is to gin up much buzz.

Google Says "No Phone" Right Now

Andy Rubin, Google Director of Mobile Platforms says Google is not announcing today a Gphone. Google has announced the Open Handset Alliance and Android.

Android is an open and comprehensive platform for mobile devices. It includes an operating system, user-interface and applications.

The Open Handset Alliance consists of more than 30 technology and mobile leaders including Motorola, Qualcomm, HTC, Sprint and T-Mobile.

The phones will also be available through the world’s largest mobile operator, China Telecom, with 332 million subscribers in China, and the leading carriers in Japan, NTT DoCoMo and KDDI, as well as T-Mobile in Germany, Telecom Italia in Italy and Telefónica in Spain.

"We recognize that many among the multitude of mobile users around the world do not and may never have an Android-based phone," says Rubin. So Google will work to ensure that its services are independent of device or even platform. "For this reason, Android will complement, but not replace, our longstanding mobile strategy of developing useful and compelling mobile services and driving adoption of these products through partnerships with handset manufacturers and mobile operators around the world."

The software developer kit is expected in about a week. Phones built on Android will be available in the second half of 2008.

Why Google Will Be a Mobile Force

Google is poised to charge the mobile Web applications for a very simple reason. Mobile advertising is an ad-supported medium it hasn't yet begun to dominate. Second, Google dominates Web applications, period, according to Net Applications.

And if you believe the mobile Web will be THE Web for billions of users, and an increasingly useful adjunct to PC-based Web apps for billions more, Google has to play.

Google Talks to Verizon and Sprint

Google is in advanced talks with Verizon Wireless to put its applications on Verizon phones, according to the Wall Street Journal. Google reportedly also is also talking to Sprint Nextel. The talks appear to center around carrier licensing of software and anoperating system that would power a Google-optimized mobile device.

Such devices are expected to cost less than similar handsets, as part of a "Google everywhere" strategy not built on handset sales or recurring service provider revenue streams.

Want a GPhone? You Have to be a Developer

A UBS analyst has confirmed that Taiwanese handset manufacturer HTC will ship about 50,000 cell phones running on a mobile operating system made by Google. The phones are reportedly going to ship by the end of this year. But the phones will only be going to development partners. The move would suggest that Google is more interested in an operating system for mobile devices than making actual devices itself, as most observers would guess, if given a choice between those two avenues as most likely.

But development of the operating system does not preclude the possibility that Google might want to have its own name plate on devices built on the operating system.

“These initial phones are not going to be for sale,” says Benjamin Schachter, UBS analyst.

iPhone No Big Deal?

At least some observers think iPhone really is not that big a deal. Sure it is. It is the first device to begin breaking the carrier-device-user relationship. To a greater extent than any other device in the mobile world, Apple has started pushing in the direction of a direct handset-user relationship. Google will be next. It IS a big deal.

3G GPhone?

Now that Adsense for Mobile is launched in 13 markets, the next issue is whether, or when, Google will launch a branded handset, and whether it actually will bid to own its own U.S. mobile broadband network.

DigiTimes says Google is pondering both EDGE and 3G versions of its branded handset. And DigiTimes says it has been told Google might opt for 3G. A switch from EDGE likely would push back the introduction into the first half of next year instead of this year.

High Tech Computer is said to be the manufacturing contractor for the Gphone.

3G would make lots of sense for a device so Web browsing centric.

Lots of Detail for a Phone That Doesn't Exist...

...and which some doubt makes sense. Still, there's growing evidence that mobile software developers are working on services and tools they hope will be packaged with a wireless operating system under wraps at Googleplex and they've been sworn to secrecy, says Business Week reporter Olga Kharif.

Among them: Plusmo, a Santa Clara (Calif.) company that pulls together blogs and news items and sends them to cell phones. Nuance Communications, a Burlington (Mass.) maker of speech-recognition software used in mobile directory assistance services.

Another startup said to be working with Google is 3Jam, a software maker in Menlo Park, Calif., that lets users send text messages to groups of friends.

Google's platform is said to consist of an operating system, mobile versions of Google's existing software, and built-in developer tools. Google is expected to offer an open application programming interface as well.

Since talk of the gPhone emerged, developers whisper that other companies, including Apple, may open their mobile-software platforms to programmers.

Part of that excitement stems from the possibility for developers to tap a new revenue source: mobile advertising, instead of user subscription fees.

Will Verizon Get Handsets Right?

So the rumor is that Verizon doesn't want to support the Google Phone. It also didn't want to support the iPhone. It isn't going to get future N series Nokia devices. So maybe Samsung or BlackBerry are working on a Verizon exclusive. That at least would explain Verizon's reluctance. Granted, Verizon would be loathe to share revenue in the way the new handset partners prefer. But there is a danger here.

It isn't so clear customers are, or can be made, loyal to a network. No network is an expression of a user's identity or personality. Handsets are. Users just want networks to work. Beyond there, why is there any reason for loyalty?

Some networks work better than others, for all sorts of reasons. I happen to be using at&t, Verizon, Sprint and T-Mobile for various applications and devices. All have some shadow areas. In-building coverage is a problem for all of them. Customer service is radically better from all of them, compared to a few years ago.

T-Mobile's biggest negative is the lack of a 3G network. But Verizon's 3G network rarely delivers the throughput it claims. And everybody has coverage issues. In fact, one of the absolute Verizon dead spots is around our Virginia home.

The point is that loyalty to a network isn't likely going to happen, for me or most anybody else. Handsets are another matter, and that's where Verizon could be making dubious decisions at the moment. Unless there is some killer device waiting in the wings, "the network" isn't going to help them.

Who Will Create the "Conference in a Pocket" Phone?

The rumored Google Phone will have to carve out a niche beyond "smart phone" or "feature phone" to get any serious traction. Perhaps it can create a new dual-mode position, since nobody really has that one nailed down yet. It might be a stretch to create a position based on "location based services," since it is doubtful most people will understand that.

But some new developments elsewhere suggest it might ultimately be possible for somebody to capture a new "conference in my pocket" position. Webex now has created an iPhone compatible PCNow capability, opening a bit of a wedge for conferencing. And iotum says it will develop a conference app running on BlackBerry and Facebook.

The point is not simply the size of the niche, but the ability to create a buyer reason to use one service or terminal instead of others. There are lots of devices that handle email. But BlackBerry created and "owns" the "email in your pocket" mental niche. That doesn't mean only the BlackBerry can do this, but that the mental position creates a compelling reason to buy and use a BlackBerry even though other smart phones can do so. The iPhone's position still is developing, though the initial positioning is as a fashionista device.

The point is that the creation of a compelling mental positioning allows a device or service to stand out in a crowd of alternatives that arguably can provide the same basic functionality. A "conference in your pocket" device can provide the same sorts of marketing value.

GooglePhone: Big Issues

Speculation about a new Google Phone continues to mount. Add the Boston Globe to the Wall Street Journal as entities that have "uncovered" the prototype. Google executive Rich Miner, a co-founder of mobile software company Android (which was bought by Google two years ago), has not confirmed that he is working on a phone, but he is reported to have shown the alleged prototype to "a handful of Boston entrepreneurs and venture capitalists."

Dan Roth, president of VoiceSignal, and Mike Phillips, founder of speech-recognition firm Vlingo Inc., both are suggested as also working with Google on the device. Google's phone supposedly allows horizontal scrolling and has three-dimensional, animated buttons on the screen as well as a small QWERTY keyboard.

This will be interesting. Most tier one service providers will say Google is the competitor they worry about most, and wireless is the service now keeping the global industry moving forward.

We can safely dismiss the notion that Google will build handsets. We cannot discount Google becoming a service provider, though, as it just might bid for 700 MHz spectrum. In the meantime, it continues to work to seed existing networks with its software, so one cannot discount an "iPhone" deal with at least one wireless carrier.

But that's where matters get sticky. T-Mobile has the most to gain, but the worst network for browsing. Verizon has the network, but probably not the willingness. at&t is busy with iPhone and might not want the distraction. Sprint has the network and a long history of working with partners. The network access platform (CDMA) probably isn't the most important issue, but is a potential negative.

Then there's the issue of how coherent the value proposition is. BlackBerry is mobile email. iPhone is a fashion statement right now. It isn't clear what it will become as adoption broadens, though if it winds up being mobile Internet then Google has to take it on. Mobile search doesn't quite have the ring of something lots of end users will understand. The "Internet in your pocket" probably does, but iPhone is already there.

More important initially is the choice of network partner. "The Internet in your pocket when near a Wi-Fi access point" doesn't cut it, at least for me. That would have as little appeal as a mobile phone that only worked within range of a Wi-Fi access point. A small number of people might put up with the convenience, but it is hard to see lots of people doing so.

T-Mobile has lots of reasons for considering such a partnership. But that's the worst possible network for mobile browsing. As much as people complain about the bandwidth used to support the iPhone, they should have to use the T-Mobile data network before complaining. Negative user experience is about the only way to describe it.

Of course, Google could be angling for applications requiring low bandwidth, such as location-based and contextual information, not mobile search, or transaction capabilities based on such location-based capabilities. That wouldn't take much bandwidth. But that also wouldn't be the "Internet in your pocket."

Assuming the bandwidth issue can be finessed, the task of creating a new category remains. People understand the "email in your pocket" and "music in your pocket" positions. Mobile browsing, mobile payments, mobile advertising and location-aware services do not provide similar positions in the end user mind.

I suppose Google could attack the iPhone segment (similar features, much less price) but even there the message does not immediately seem clear.

Apple also had an advantage: it is well known for user interface innovation industrial design and ease of use. Apple also has a fanatical user base and was able to build off the wild success of the iPod. Google will not have those advantages.

And this is said by someone whose day begins and ends with Google, and for whom search is something that happens throughout the day. But the way I use Google (research) would not translate to the mobile environment. Mobile search would be a different use case and some new behaviors Google would have to stimulate and help create. Of course, BlackBerry and iPhone had to do so as well. I just can't tell you off hand what a Google Phone does for me, the way I can describe the BlackBerry and iPhone.

Separately, Google has filed a patent application covering an electronic on-line payment system it refers to as GPay. Using GPay, a server receives a text message from a payer containing a payment request for a specific amount. The server parses the text message to find out what value the payer account should be debited for, and
credits the payee account.

Of course, one way or the other, Google is going to be a presence in wireless. If Google wants a share of the mobile advertising market, and it clearly does, it needs control over more elements of the value chain.

Also, with wireless increasingly ubiquitous, and fourth generation wireless coming, Google has to get into position to extend beyond the PC experience. So Google seems to be working on an operating system and at least one handset.

It had made wireless enabling technology acquisitions, including Reqwireless (mobile apps: browser, email), Skia (graphics software), Android (OS)and Dodgeball (mobile social networking).

Google is developing mobile versions of existing apps such as its Calendar and AdSense apps. it is developing text message services such as real-time flight information, local search and payments.

Google might bid in the upcoming 700 MHz auction. it also is sealing deals with hardware makers to pre-install Google services on Samsung, Apple iPhone and LG devices and working with China Mobile and at&t--through the iPhone--to optimize the services for handset use.

Google also is supporting the Windows Mobile operating system. Google also is talking about a mobile virtual network in the U.K. market. And of course it has been experimenting with Wi-Fi networks, and is working with Sprint on that firm's WiMAX handsets.

Or Maybe Google Phone Looks Like This...

Who knows? The point is that Google probably has to get involved with handsets at some point, just as Microsoft now has to supply phones, to get other things done. Google wants to stimulate mobile search so it can sell more contextual ads based on location. Microsoft wants to sell more unified communications applications. Each might have to play in the device arena as part of a broader effort to meet a business objective. Voice is just something people expect a mobile to do, even if the supplier objective really is revenues built on mobile search and advertising.

GooglePhone? GPhone?

Since late 2006, there has been speculation that Google is prototyping a Google mobile phone, optimized to run Google apps, enable communications between Gtalk users and operate as a standard mobile phone as well. The speculation then was that a launch could occur in 2008.

The rumors are out again, suggesting a device that could sell in the $100 range, not to compete with the iPhone but rather low-cost PCs and other Web-capable devices. The device supposedly is powered by Linux, includes global positioning satellite capabilities, and of course will be optimzied to run Google Maps and other Google software.

Google is said to be showing the prototype to cell phone manufacturers and network operators as it continues to hone the technical specifications that will allow the phone to offer a better mobile Web browsing experience than current products, even the Wall Street Journal has reported.

Perhaps more surprisingly is the apparently-serious talk that Google might try an ad-support model. Maybe someday. That strikes me as requiring too great a change in end user behavior. People don't mind paying something for calling. A more logical approach is a simple flat fee plan for data network usage, including IP-to-IP calls using the data plan, and some for-fee charge for calls that have to terminate on existing mobile and wired networks.

There is a rumor about T-Mobile being a network partner, but that is curious since T-Mobile's data network would provide a horrible end user experience. Perhaps T-Mobile is thinking about a dual-mode approach with connectivity at T-Mobile Hotspots. Despite that, T-Mobile has the most to gain, as it needs to do something to break out of its fourth-place spot in the U.S. mobile market.

Such a GPhone or Google Phone would aim for the "Internet in your pocket" segment of the market, with a heavy emphasis on how it can be a platform for contextual advertising based on user location, not just past behavior. There's always some risk when a supplier tries to create a new segment in the device category. But Apple has done it with the iPod and now with the iPhone.

The Google Phone would have to pioneer another new segment in the handset category as well. That's always challenging. But mobile search is a big deal for Google, providing huge incentives to prime the market.

This image, by the way, is just one conception of what such a device might look like.