About 66 percent of U.S. mobile devices will be replaced within the next two years, says ICR/International Communications Research, a prediction that should not surprise anybody. Mobiles break, get lost and typically have two-year contracts.
As might be expected, the younger generation is more likely to make a change sooner: 77 percent of those 18 to 34 plan to replace their mobile devices within the next two years, compared to 46 percent of those 65 or older.
About 78 percent of respondents believe they will need to replace their devices within the next two years because the items will break or be lost, while only 19 percent think they will want to upgrade to the latest version.
Upgraders also vary by age with 26 percent of 18 to 34 year-olds saying they do so, compared to 14 percent of respondents 55 or older.
Showing posts with label new handset. Show all posts
Showing posts with label new handset. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
66% of U.S. Mobile Devices Will Be Replaced Over the Next 2 Years
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Monday, December 21, 2009
How Will "No Contract" Smartphone Sales Affect Adoption?
What happens to smartphone sales, data plan sales, consumer behavior and mobile service provider marketing if phones cannot be provided at subsidized prices? If sales of smartphones fall, then use of mobile broadband services likely will grow more slowly. So smartphone prices do matter.
Up to this point, mobile phone subsidies have been seen as a “necessary evil” for the development of mobile phone services and have helped kick start the mass market for mobile phone services in many markets around the world. And it would be hard to underestimate the role subsidized handet pricing has had.
Handset subsidies are viewed as a loss leader strategy, a means for bringing new subscribers onboard, or encouraging existing subscribers to churn away from their existing network and onto a competitor’s.
But investors do not like the practice, as it puts pressure on service provider cash flow. Regulators do not seem to like the practice because subsidies mean contracts, and contracts lessen consumer ability to change carriers.
Global smartphone volumes will represent 14 per cent of total mobile devices sales in 2009, growing by 23.6 per cent from 2008 and to 38 per cent by 2013, say analysts at Gartner.
Smartphone prices are falling as shipment volumes increase, and a new study from ABI Research finds that while in 2007 only 18 percent of smartphones on offer cost under $200 retail, that percentage has already grown to 27 percent in 2009. By 2014, say the firm’s forecasts, 45 percent of the smartphones shipped that year will be priced below $200.
“Manufacturers see consumers increasingly demanding smartphones, because of their better understanding of the value that a smartphone delivers,” says mobile devices practice director Kevin Burden.
The result: more and more smartphones and conventional phones are priced in similar ranges. According to ABI Research, by far the greatest increase in smartphone shipment volumes over the next five years will be found in the $100-200 price range.
But what happens if new government regulations bar the practice of phone subsidies, and consumers must pay full retail price for new high-end models? Less buying.
On the other hand, there will be more buying of cheaper models. That doesn't necessarily mean smartphone sales overall will plunge, but it will be far more difficult to sell massive quantities of new high-end devices, as few consumers have shown any willingness to spend $600 for unlocked devices.
Of course, there are other possibilities. Perhaps some providers will be able to create new payment models, such as offering installment plans for purchase of new high-end devices. A few might consider other subsidy programs that serve up ads and default applications in exchange for lower-cost devices.
Advantage also will be gained by manufacturers that can wring out costs, offering high-performance devices that just cost less to begin with.
What seems clear, though, is that mandated sales of full price devices, sold without contracts, will have massive impact on the take rate for high-end devices.
Up to this point, mobile phone subsidies have been seen as a “necessary evil” for the development of mobile phone services and have helped kick start the mass market for mobile phone services in many markets around the world. And it would be hard to underestimate the role subsidized handet pricing has had.
Handset subsidies are viewed as a loss leader strategy, a means for bringing new subscribers onboard, or encouraging existing subscribers to churn away from their existing network and onto a competitor’s.
But investors do not like the practice, as it puts pressure on service provider cash flow. Regulators do not seem to like the practice because subsidies mean contracts, and contracts lessen consumer ability to change carriers.
Global smartphone volumes will represent 14 per cent of total mobile devices sales in 2009, growing by 23.6 per cent from 2008 and to 38 per cent by 2013, say analysts at Gartner.
Smartphone prices are falling as shipment volumes increase, and a new study from ABI Research finds that while in 2007 only 18 percent of smartphones on offer cost under $200 retail, that percentage has already grown to 27 percent in 2009. By 2014, say the firm’s forecasts, 45 percent of the smartphones shipped that year will be priced below $200.
“Manufacturers see consumers increasingly demanding smartphones, because of their better understanding of the value that a smartphone delivers,” says mobile devices practice director Kevin Burden.
The result: more and more smartphones and conventional phones are priced in similar ranges. According to ABI Research, by far the greatest increase in smartphone shipment volumes over the next five years will be found in the $100-200 price range.
But what happens if new government regulations bar the practice of phone subsidies, and consumers must pay full retail price for new high-end models? Less buying.
On the other hand, there will be more buying of cheaper models. That doesn't necessarily mean smartphone sales overall will plunge, but it will be far more difficult to sell massive quantities of new high-end devices, as few consumers have shown any willingness to spend $600 for unlocked devices.
Of course, there are other possibilities. Perhaps some providers will be able to create new payment models, such as offering installment plans for purchase of new high-end devices. A few might consider other subsidy programs that serve up ads and default applications in exchange for lower-cost devices.
Advantage also will be gained by manufacturers that can wring out costs, offering high-performance devices that just cost less to begin with.
What seems clear, though, is that mandated sales of full price devices, sold without contracts, will have massive impact on the take rate for high-end devices.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
3G GPhone?
Now that Adsense for Mobile is launched in 13 markets, the next issue is whether, or when, Google will launch a branded handset, and whether it actually will bid to own its own U.S. mobile broadband network.
DigiTimes says Google is pondering both EDGE and 3G versions of its branded handset. And DigiTimes says it has been told Google might opt for 3G. A switch from EDGE likely would push back the introduction into the first half of next year instead of this year.
High Tech Computer is said to be the manufacturing contractor for the Gphone.
3G would make lots of sense for a device so Web browsing centric.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
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