Email Communication Declining in U.K. Market

Most people would guess that teenagers send more instant or text messages than emails. In the U.K., says ComScore, it is a quantifiable trend. As it turns out, people now are communicating more from within the context of their social networks than using portal-based email. That isn't yet true for business communications, of course.

But it stands to reason that personal use of email is for communication with friends and family. And if those people are part of a social network, one doesn't have to go outside the network to send messages. Some day soon, people will launch and receive voice, video and other communications from within the social network as well.

Mobile IM Use Increasing

According to the second annual AP-AOL Instant Messaging Trends Survey, 25 percent of respondents send instant messages from their mobile phones, including 32 percent teens.

In addition, IM users are instant messaging from within their social networking profiles.

More than 27 percent of users say they use instant messaging at work. Further, half of at-work IM users say that instant messaging makes them more productive at work, a 25 percent increase over last year.

More than half (55 percent) of teen IM users have used instant messaging to get help with their homework. This is a 17 percent increase over last year. Meanwhile, 22 percent of teens say they have sent an IM to ask for or accept a date.

Forty-three percent of teen IM users say they have used instant messaging to say something they would not say to someone in person. Teenage girls are more likely than boys to do so. Nearly half of teenage girls surveyed have used instant messaging to say something they would not say in person, compared with just over a third of teenage boys.

Nearly three in four teens (70 percent) and one in four adults (24 percent) send more instant messages than emails.

Multi-tasking remains very popular, as IM users tend to engage in multiple online activities while sending instant messages. Checking email is the most popular activity among eight in ten adult and teen IM users. After email, adult IM users most often conduct online searches (49 percent), while teens say they like to research homework assignments online (57 percent).

Nearly four in five (79 percent) at-work IM users say they have used instant messaging in the office to take care of personal matters. One in five (19 percent) IM users say they send more instant messages than emails to their co-workers and colleagues.

Google Will Bid on 700 MHz Spectrum!

Google is preparing to bid at least $4.6 billion for wireless spectrum to be bought at the Federal Communications Commission's January auction, the Wall Street Journal reported says. The company is planning to bid without partners, a move some of us would not have predicted.

The company is beta testing a wireless solution in preparation for running a full-scale national mobile network. Obviously, Google as a mobile network services provider would be highly disruptive to the existing legacy carrier business models, given the likelihood Google would emerge fairly quickly as a packaging, pricing and
network functionality innovator.

One simply has to point back to packaging and pricing innovation by just one carrier--AT&T--to illustrate the fact that a significant new pricing pattern, in this case the concept of a bucket of minutes for a flat fee, can cause an entire industry to react.

A bid obviously would vastly complicate Google's other efforts to gain favorable placement of its software on all sorts of devices compatible with all sorts of carrier networks. But Google probably wins even if it loses. By creating a "bid" poker chip, it can wring concessions out of recalcitrant carriers who might be wary of giving Google more play.

And there are very real costs to be borne by the likes of Verizon and at&t if Google enters the bidding contest. It is not simply the threat that Google wins. If Google bids, the final price paid by the auction winner, whether at&t or Verizon, will be higher than if Google had not been a contestant.

Making War on Your Customers a Mistake. Duh!

Edgar Bronfman, Warner Music CEO, says mobile service providers should not make the mistake the music industry did. "We used to fool ourselves,' he says. "We used to think our content was perfect just exactly as it was."

"We expected our business would remain blissfully unaffected even as the world of interactivity, constant connection and file sharing was exploding," he says. "And of course we were wrong."

"We inadvertently went to war with consumers by denying them what they wanted and could otherwise find and as a result of course, consumers won," he says.

Mobile operators risk making the same mistake with their music services, he says.

"The sad truth is that most of what consumers are being offered today on the mobile platform is boring, banal and basic," Bronfman says. "People want a more interesting form of mobile music content."

"They want it to be easy to buy with a single click," he adds. "And they want access to it, quickly and easily, wherever they are, 24/7."

BT: Another Twist on Social Networking

Tradespace is a community platform that allows businesses to interact together and use PayPal to make transactions. It currently features 20,000 largely small business users.

The SME employs 10 million people in the U.K. market, about half of the total private workforce, says Ben Verwaayen, BT CEO. About 24 percent of the U.K. workforce works from home. About 60 pecent start-ups also are home-based.

"They don't want hassle but they want to live in the 21st century," says Verwaayen. "So they want to have the capability to communicate, to delegate, to go out in the world and find supplies, find customers and do that in a way that they concentrate on what they do best," says Verwaayen.

And that's one example of how social networkng can work for small business.

Enterprise Software Not Where It's At Anymore

The future of enterprise computing will draw from what is being developed on the consumer side, says Paul Otellini, Intel CEO. "Consumers today are the number one users of semiconductors; they passed over IT and government in 2004."

"Prior to that period, most people developing silicon in the industry were focused on the main market: the enterprise and IT," says Otellini. "Today, most of us are focused on the consumer market as drivers."

"Not so long ago, if you were technology-oriented and wanted to do something innovative and cool that would make you rich, you wrote a new piece of enterprise software," he says. "Or you came up with a new design for a server. Or you figured out a way to link business people with their offices while on the road."

That's just not the case anymore. Innovation is coming from the consumer Web.

Global Telecom Revenue Up Again

For all the talk of how IP-based services will cannibalize legacy communications revenue, only narrowband voice services seem to be stalled at this point. In 2008, projects Insight Research, worldwide service provider revenues are predicted to grow to $1.7 trillion
in 2008, and to keep growing to $2.7 trillion in 2013.

While the overall CAGR is 10.3 percent, there are notable regional differences. The Europe/Middle East/Africa (EMEA)region has the slowest growth rate at 5.2 percent annually. The Asia Pacific region is experiencing the highest five-year growth overall, at 15.5 percent. The Latin American region is next with a growth of 12 percent.

Broadband wireline revenues are growing at a 6.7 percent cumulative annual growth rate over the forecast period, while narrowband wireline services revenues are essentially flat at 0.4 percent over the same period.

Clearly wireless and broadband are where the growth is. Wireless revenues will grow from 60.3 percent of all telecommunications services revenues in 2008 to 72.3 percent in 2013.

Wireless services revenues are growing at 14.4 percent over the forecast period, while wireline services, which includes both broadband and narrowband services, grows much more modestly at 2.6 percent.