U.K. ISPs Will Have to Block Pirated Content

Voluntarily or by government regulation, U.K. Internet service providers are going to become watchdogs of pirated music and video content, and likely will be required to disconnect repeat offenders.

In fact, Virgin Media will become the first U.K. ISP to crack down on customers who download music illegally, says Juliette Garside of the Telegraph. And video is a strong possibility for follow-on rules.

Record labels are lobbying for a "three strikes" regime that would allow ISPs to disconnect offenders' access service, and the U.K. government is expected next month to start the process of putting such regulations into place.

This would be the first time a British internet company has publicly moved to share responsibility for curbing piracy, using a mechanism where offenders are identified by copyright holders and that information is forwarded to Virgin and other ISPs.

Six million broadband users are estimated to download files illegally each year, costing record labels billions of pounds in lost CD sales but ISPs have so far resisted calls to control the traffic that passes over their networks, raising issues around customer privacy and the difficulty of accurately pinpointing file sharers.

The U.K. government, though, intends to force the matter to a head. It has said it will implement legislation by April 2009 unless ISPs came to a voluntary agreement with the music and film industries.

The new developments illustrate the difficulty of cleanly separating piracy control from content freedom; network management from anti-competitive ISP actions; optimized delivery of audio, video and other real-time services from other best-effort traffic using priority-delivery mechanisms.

Mac Sales Stronger, PCs Slipping

Despite evidence of slowing PC buying activity, planned purchases of Apple Macs remain relatively strong, according to a recent ChangeWave Alliance survey.

About eight percent of the 4,427 consumers surveyed by ChangeWave in late February say they'll be buying a laptop in the next 90 days, the lowest level of consumer laptop demand in the past 12 months. The same trend was seen in desktop PC purchases, with just six percent saying they'll be buying one, also a low for the year, says ChangeWave.

That trend also is reflected among enteprise and business buyers. In February, only 73 percent of 2,204 corporate respondents said their company plans on buying laptops in the next quarter, down 4-pts from a year ago. Plans to buy desktop machines were down five percentage points from the same month a year ago.

On the other hand, looking at the next three months, Apple remains the leader among consumers who plan to buy a laptop. Some 31 percent of those who say they will buy a machine indicate they will buy a Mac, down just two points from the all-time high recorded in ChangeWave's prior survey. Apple planned desktop purchases of 28 percent, down one percentage point, also are near record levels.

Importantly, Apple's numbers are up more than 50 percent from a year ago.Enterprise planned Mac purchases are also at or near record highs, ChangeWave says. It is possible the operating system is responsible for some or much of the difference in Mac interest, compared to the Vista operating system.

Among corporate respondents using the Leopard operating system, over half (53 percent) report they are "very satisfied". This compares to a 40 percent "very satisfied" rating for Windows XP Pro users, and just an eight percent "very satisfied" rating for Microsoft Vista Business (eight percent).

iPhone, Smart Phone, Phone: Big Difference in Behavior

It's starting to become clear that putting smart phones in the hands of users will cause their behaviors to change in ways that are helpful if a service provider cares about new services.

It also is clear that new behaviors are encouraged when users have an easy way to navigate and don't have to worry about the charges.

That isn't necessarily to say most users require truly "unlimited" data plans. Plans that allow them to make use of Web applications and features without worrying about the cost are what is important.

iPhone Changes Mobile Landscape

Six months after the iPhone’s U.S. launch, has the device changed the mobile landscape? According to M:Metrics, the mobile media authority, the answer is yes. Today, the measurement firm reports that the iPhone is already the most popular device for accessing news and information on the mobile Web, with 85 percent of iPhone users accessing news and information in the month of January.

That's important because the iPhone probably has created a whole new segment within the wireless user and wireless device universe: that of the mobile Web device.

Until recently, surveys by the Pew Internet and American Life Project, for example, have shown relatively low usage of the mobile Web. The iPhone user pattern suggests latent demand exists and will surface if only user interface and charging expectations are addressed.

“Beyond a doubt, this device is compelling consumers to interact with the mobile Web, delivering off-the-charts usage from everything to text messaging to mobile video,” says Mark Donovan, M:Metrics senior analyst.

iPhone might also be showing there are new niches for mobile video as well.

M:Metrics found that a staggering 31 percent of iPhone owners watched mobile TV or video, versus a 4.6 market average, and more than double the rate for all smartphone users.

The iPhone arguably also has emerged as the most-successful mobile music platform. About 74.1 percent of iPhone owners listened to mobile music in January, compared to 6.7 percent of the total mobile audience. In part, that may be because iPhone users also are heavy iPod users. About 84 percent of iPhone owners who use an MP3 player use an iPod.

Demographically, iPhone users are similar to the demographics of other smart phone owners. They are more likely to be: male, aged 25-34, earn more that $100,000 and have a college degree, than the average mobile subscriber, M:Metrics reports.

Though it might be tough to quantify the precise impact of each contributing element, it seems clear enough that when users don't have to worry about the charges and have an easy way to navigate, they quickly will adopt new behaviors related to mobile Web usage.

SME Conferencing Up 50% Next 12 Months

More than 50 percent of European small and mid-sized businesses plan to increase use of conference-calling and video-conferencing technologies over the next 12 months, a survey conducted by Skype reveals.

That finding corroborates with other data suggesting that Web-based collaboration, for example, is growing much faster than air travel, and replacement of such travel costs is a generally accepted value conferencing services provide.

A third of companies surveyed already use conference calls while a further 40 percent see the potential. Two thirds of companies already using conference calling do so at least once a week and 60 percent predict that they are likely to increase use over the next 12 months.

There is a similar pattern to video-conferencing use. Despite being a relatively new feature, more than 40 percent can see the potential of video-conferencing use in business. Skype’s internal data also suggest that 30 percent of all Skype calls now involve video.

There is also strong evidence to suggest that small businesses are embracing conference calling and video conferencing as a method of communicating both internally and with their customers and new prospects, Skype says.

In fact, many of the SMEs questioned who were not current users of video conferencing said they would be more likely to use it if it was better quality and not expensive.

Mobile Ads Still Largely Text Based

Global mobile advertising will grow from $2.7 billion in 2007 to $19.1 billion in 2012, mainly on the strength of text-message campaigns, according to a new eMarketer report.

Mobile spending in the U.S. market will jump from $878 million in 2007 to $6.5 billion by 2012, but will be eclipsed by the more mobile-centric Asia-Pacific market by then.

U.S. mobile spending is projected to nearly double to $1.7 billion in 2008.

Because text-messaging will remain the dominant non-voice mobile service over the next several years--especially in big markets like China and India that lack 3G networks--that's where most ad dollars will flow, eMarketer argues.

Advertising linked to SMS and MMS text-messaging, mobile instant messaging, and mobile e-mail will collectively account for more than $14 billion of the $19 million total projected in 2012--up from $2.5 billion in 2007.

Display and search advertising will lag because those formats work best on higher-speed broadband networks. But $99 smart prices and unlimited use mobile plans are going to expand market potential in North America.

3G Data Card Sales to Quadruple

Sales of mobile data cards are forecast by Infonetics Research to nearly quadruple between 2007 and 2011, when they will reach $2.9 billion globally.

Of course, mobile data cards could threaten some portion of the Wi-Fi hotspot market, as a logical consequence.

“Currently, mobile data services are generally too expensive for mass market adoption, but that will change with the increasingly extensive roll out of high speed HSDPA, the launch of new data plans offering increased download limits, and better subsidies for mobile data cards," says Richard Webb, Infonetics directing analyst.

There is another possibility, though. Broadband-equipped smart phones that double as access devices will become more popular. And some significant part of the Wi-Fi and data card use case is being subsumed by mobile email devices and Web-capable smart phones.

Still, it is hard to envision any scenario where "personal broadband" does not ultimately become as ubiquitous as "personal voice" now is. It will take a while, but the same convenience values that have transformed "voice," which once was a shared service provided to "places," and now is provided to "people," will occur in the mobile Web area as well.