Real-Time Internet Traffic Doubles

Real-time entertainment has almost doubled its share of total Internet traffic from 2008 to 2009, while gaming has increased its share by more than 50 percent, says Sandvine. Real-time entertainment traffic (streaming audio and video, peer-casting, place-shifting, Flash video) now accounts for 26.6 percent of total traffic in 2009, up from 12.6 percent in 2008, according to a new analysis by Sandvine.

As the percentage of real-time video and voice traffic continues to grow, latency issues will become more visible to end users, and will prompt new efforts by Internet access providers to provide better control of quality issues not related directly to bandwidth.

One reason is that video downloads, for example, are declining in favor of real-time streaming. Downloaded content is less susceptible to latency and jitter impairments.

Traffic to and from gaming consoles increased by more than 50 percent per subscriber as well, demonstrating not only the popularity of online gaming, but also the growing use of game consoles as sources of “traditional” entertainment such as movies and TV shows, says Sandvine.

Gaming, especially fast-paced action games, likewise are susceptible to experience impairment caused by latency and jitter.

.The growth of real-time entertainment consumption also is leading to a decline of peer-to-peer traffic. At a global level, P2P file-sharing declined by 25 percent as a share of total traffic, to account for just over 20 percent of total bytes, says Sandvine.

The changes have key implications for ISPs and end users. One way to protect real-time service performance for applications such as voice, video, videoconferencing and gaming is to take extra measures to protect latency performance for such real-time applications. And that is where clumsy new network neutrality rules might be a problem.

Whatever else might be said, user experience can be optimized at times of peak congestion by prioritizing delivery of real-time packets, compared to other types of traffic that are more robust in the face of packet delay. File downloads, email and Web surfing are examples of activities that are robust in the face of congestion.

So it matters greatly whether ISPs can condition end user traffic--especially with user consent--to maintain top priority for streaming video, voice or other real-time applications when networks are congested. Enterprises do this all the time. It would be a shame if consumers were denied the choice to benefit as well.

Broadband Stimulus Delays Continue

It should not come as any surprise--given earlier delays--that the first project awards under the the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act's "broadband stimulus" program will be late. Some might not happen at all, unless they can adequately document that there is no existing provider able to provide service in project areas.

The program is supposed to allocate $7.2 billion to provide broadband services or training to rural and other underserved communities, through the Department of Commerce’s National Telecommunications and Information Administration and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Utilities Service.

The problem is that the work load required to evaluate and award funds so vastly exceeds the volume of work either agency has handled in the past. The NTIA must now disburse sums that are about 4.7 times greater than normal, while the RUS faces the task of disbursing amounts 192 times larger than normal.

Those would be challenges under the best of circumstances, so it is no surprise that the first awards may not be made until December, about a month later than anticipated. There are other risks, says the Government Accountability Office, including a lack of funding for oversight beyond fiscal year 2010 and a lack of updated performance measures to ensure accountability for NTIA and RUS.

Some awards might never happen. The program rules relating to new services in "unserved" areas forbid projects in areas already served by existing providers. Comcast and other cable providers believe some projects violate just those provisions. Comcast says it will file supporting data Oct. 28, 2009, supporting its contentions.

The National Cable & Telecommunications Association claims funding has been sought in "hundreds" of areas where its members already provide broadband service.

For Lots of People, This Will Be Unified Communications

Impulse Purchases Key for Mobile Marketing Messages

A significant number of American consumers are interested in receiving opt-in marketing messages, according to a new survey by Harris Interactive. It also appears impulse purchases are prime candidates for mobile marketing messages.

The survey of 2,029 mobile phone users, ages 18 and older shows 42 percent of users between the ages of 18 and 34 and 33 percent of those between 35 to 44 are at least somewhat interested in receiving alerts about sales on their cell phones from their favorite establishments.

Men are more interested than women. About 51 percent of men ages 18 to 34, and 34 percent of women of the same age range are at least somewhat interested in receiving opt-in shopping alerts on their cell phones.

Only one percent of cell phone owners currently receive alerts about sales at their favorite establishments on their phones, yet 26 percent would be at least somewhat interested in receiving such alerts, assuming they were permission-based.

Of those interested in receiving alerts, 53 percent would be at least somewhat interested in being notified about restaurant specials around them.

About 43 percent say they would be interested in getting information about movie or event tickets. About 39 percent are interested in getting weather information, while 37 percent indicated interest in information about clearance sales.

Sizable percentages expressed interest in specific products such as pizza, clothes, fast food, electronics, music, happy hour specials or bar and night club offers.

Impulse purchases seem particularly germane. The survey found that about 90 percent of U.S. adults have made an impulse purchase when they were out shopping in a store, based on a sale or special offer going on around where they were.

Nearly a quarter of adults owning cell phones (22 percent) make this type of impulse purchase at least once per week or more often.

Might Verizon Still Get the iPhone?

Given the direct knocks on the Apple iPhone in Verizon's latest "Droid Does" marketing campaign, there has been speculation that Verizon has given up on any plans it might have had for offering the iPhone on the Verizon network.

But Verizon chairman and CEO Ivan G. Seidenberg surprised observers by saying Verizon has not given up hope of offering Apple's iPhone.

"This is a decision that is exclusively in Apple's court," Seidenberg said on Verizon's third quarter 2009 earnings call. "We obviously would be interested in any point in the future they thought it would make sense for them to have us as a partner."

"We have expanded our base of other devices," explained Seidenberg. "So our view is to broaden the base of choice for customers and hopefully along the way, Apple as well as others will decide to jump on the bandwagon."

Although AT&T's exclusive deal to offer the iPhone in the US is thought to be nearing an end, Verizon Wireless, which uses the CDMA air interface, is viewed by some an unlikely candidate to offer the iPhone, which currently is designed to run on GSM networks.

AT&T's iPhone exclusive is seen as a key factor in differing net new subscriber performance in the third quarter. Verizon Wireless added 1.2 million new mobile customers during the quarter to reach 89 million in total, while AT&T had earlier reported growth of two million net new subscribers, to reach 81.6 million total subs.

AT&T said it activated 3.2 million iPhones in the third quarter of 2009, the company's largest quarterly total to date.

T-Mobile USA Launches Unlimited Prepaid Offer

Given the relative strength of prepaid wireless, and a renewed spate of competition in the segment, it might not be too surprising that T-Mobile USA has launched a new unlimited mobile plan available to customers who do not like contracts.

What might have been disruptive is an extension of such plans to all postpaid customers as well, a move that might have sparked yet another round of price cuts in the postpaid business. But it was a move T-Mobile USA chose not to take.

The new plan offers unlimited talk, text and Web surfing for $79.99 a month to customers who do not want to sign up for a long-term contract, which typically lasts two years.

It will also offer a $50 per month unlimited service for non-contract customers that only want access to voice calls, not text messaging or Web access.

By some measures, the new deal represents a 20 percent discount on T-Mobile's standard unlimited monthly fee for contract customers.

Nobody knows what might have happened had T-Mobile USA launched a $50 per month unlimited voice and data service plan for all customers, but an immediate price war is one likely outcome.

As matters stand, that is unlikely to happen. On its third quarter earnings call, Verizon said Verizon Wireless was unlikely to respond to T-Mobile USA's new offer with a similar one of its own.

That is unsurprising given Verizon's general stance on prepaid, which is that it remains a niche tough to square with Verizon's historic focus on higher-end postpaid customers.

Prepaid accounted for 80 percent of U.S. subscriber growth in the first quarter of 2009, though growth has moderated since then.

Sprint subsidiary Boost Mobile launched a $50 monthly plan in January 2009 and has been matched by the other leading prepaid providers.

On Demand TV "Not So Everywhere"

Comcast Cable subscribers will be able to watch popular cable television series such as HBO's "Entourage" and AMC's "Mad Men" on your computer by the end of the year without paying extra — as long as you're a Comcast Corp. subscriber watching at home.

The initiative is a starting point for Comcast, which hopes to eventually offer what some call "TV Everywhere" service: linear video programming on demand, over any broadband network.

Comcast, wanting to make sure the shows will remain off-limits to non-subscribers, apparently still is working on providing access over competing home broadband systems as well as on the go — at work, on laptops and, one day, over cell phones.

Comcast will be the first cable TV operator to unlock online access to a many cable shows and movies, aiming to replicate what's available on television through video on demand.

Comcast subscribers can initially watch shows and movies only on their home computers after being verified by the cable system. And for now, the online viewing will be restricted to those who also get Internet service through Comcast, and not on any broadband connection.

That might be helpful for Comcast consumers watching on-demand fare at home. It will not be so helpful if those customers would prefer to watch on their mobiles or any other broadband connection.

But it is a start.