Handset shipments suffered another annual decline in the third quarter but are forecast to rebound in the key final quarter of the year, according to Strategy Analytics and IDC. Virtually all observers attribute the slowdown to slower handset replacement caused by consumer caution in the face of the recession.
Strategy Analytics estimates that global handset shipments reached 291 million units in the third quarter, down four percent from 304 million units year over year.
IDC estimates third quarter 2009 shipments totalled 287.1 million units worldwide, down six percent from a year earlier, but up 5.6 percent from the second quarter.
"The mobile phone market is showing the first signs of improvement since the onset of the economic crisis," says Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst at IDC. "During the third quarter, we saw a number of channels promoting older devices at significantly lower prices. For many, this was enough to spur demand and push volumes higher."
Strategy Analytics forecasts that 300 million handsets will be shipped in the key fourth quarter, an increase of three percent increase on the 294 million units shipped in the last quarter of 2008.
"We believe this will be the first time the industry has returned to positive growth since the third quarter of 2008, signalling an end to the handset recession after four quarters of decline," Strategy Analytics says.
Of course, industry-wide averages sometimes obscure market share changes. Nokia sales dipped eight percent, year over year, while Samsung grew 16 percent. LG grew 37 percent. Both Sony Ericsson and Motorola reported declines.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Is Mobile Handset Market Heating Up?
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Pandemic Would Impair Residential Broadband, GAO Says
In a serious pandemic, residential Internet access demand is likely to exceed the capacity of Internet providers’ network infrastructure, says the Government Accountability Office. That means enterprise and government disaster recovery efforts that depend on residential broadband connections may not work as planned, GAO warns.
In a serious pandemic, U.S. businesses, government agencies and schools could experience absenteeism (or forced dispersal of workers as precautionary measure) that could reach 50 percent or higher ranges, thereby displacing Internet access demand from normal daytime sites to homes, says the Government Accountability Office.
But residential broadband networks are not designed to handle this unexpected load, and could interfere with teleworkers in the securities market and other sectors, according to the Department of Homeland Security.
Oddly enough, robust network neutrality measures, such as forbidding any prioritization of bits, could render impotent one obvious way of handling the sudden explosion of traffic.
"Private Internet providers have limited ability to prioritize traffic or take other actions that could assist critical teleworkers," GAO says. "Some actions, such as reducing customers’ transmission speeds or blocking popular Web sites, could negatively impact e-commerce and require government authorization."
In other words, laws and rules that forbid "packet discrimination" would impair ability to prioritize more-important work-related uses of the residential Internet.
"Increased use of the Internet by students, teleworkers, and others during a severe pandemic is expected to create congestion in Internet access networks that serve metropolitan and other residential neighborhoods," GAO warns.
"Localities may choose to close schools and these students, confined at home, will likely look to the Internet for entertainment, including downloading or 'streaming' videos, playing online games, and engaging in potential activities that may consume large amounts of network capacity," GAO says.
"Additionally, people who are ill or are caring for sick family members will be at home and could add to Internet traffic by accessing online sites for health, news, and other information," GAO adds. "This increased and sustained recreational or other use by the general public during a pandemic outbreak will likely lead to a significant increase in traffic on residential networks."
"If theaters, sporting events, or other public gatherings are curtailed, use of the Internet for entertainment and information is likely to increase even more," GAO says. At-home workers will only compound the problem.
Oddly enough, the mechanisms ISPs could use to prioritize bandwidth so that a suddenly-scarce resource can be managed are precisely the tools strong "network neutrality" forbids.
"A provider could attempt to reduce congestion by reducing the amount of traffic that each user could send to and receive from his or her network," says GAO. "Such a reduction would require adjusting the configuration file within each customer’s modem to temporarily reduce the maximum transmission speed that that modem was capable of performing—for example, by reducing its incoming capability from 7 Mbps to 1 Mbps."
"However, according to providers we spoke with, such reductions could violate the agreed-upon levels of services for which customers have paid," GAO points out.
And that is even before any new regulations that specifically would outlaw packet shaping that could, for example, limit video streaming, gaming, and peer-to-peer and other bandwidth-intensive applications during daytime work hours, when teleworkers will have an arguably greater need to maintain functioning connections for voice and data operations essential to their work.
Overly-casual positioning of the need for "packet equality" rules can be dangerous, as the GAO points out.
In a serious pandemic, U.S. businesses, government agencies and schools could experience absenteeism (or forced dispersal of workers as precautionary measure) that could reach 50 percent or higher ranges, thereby displacing Internet access demand from normal daytime sites to homes, says the Government Accountability Office.
But residential broadband networks are not designed to handle this unexpected load, and could interfere with teleworkers in the securities market and other sectors, according to the Department of Homeland Security.
Oddly enough, robust network neutrality measures, such as forbidding any prioritization of bits, could render impotent one obvious way of handling the sudden explosion of traffic.
"Private Internet providers have limited ability to prioritize traffic or take other actions that could assist critical teleworkers," GAO says. "Some actions, such as reducing customers’ transmission speeds or blocking popular Web sites, could negatively impact e-commerce and require government authorization."
In other words, laws and rules that forbid "packet discrimination" would impair ability to prioritize more-important work-related uses of the residential Internet.
"Increased use of the Internet by students, teleworkers, and others during a severe pandemic is expected to create congestion in Internet access networks that serve metropolitan and other residential neighborhoods," GAO warns.
"Localities may choose to close schools and these students, confined at home, will likely look to the Internet for entertainment, including downloading or 'streaming' videos, playing online games, and engaging in potential activities that may consume large amounts of network capacity," GAO says.
"Additionally, people who are ill or are caring for sick family members will be at home and could add to Internet traffic by accessing online sites for health, news, and other information," GAO adds. "This increased and sustained recreational or other use by the general public during a pandemic outbreak will likely lead to a significant increase in traffic on residential networks."
"If theaters, sporting events, or other public gatherings are curtailed, use of the Internet for entertainment and information is likely to increase even more," GAO says. At-home workers will only compound the problem.
Oddly enough, the mechanisms ISPs could use to prioritize bandwidth so that a suddenly-scarce resource can be managed are precisely the tools strong "network neutrality" forbids.
"A provider could attempt to reduce congestion by reducing the amount of traffic that each user could send to and receive from his or her network," says GAO. "Such a reduction would require adjusting the configuration file within each customer’s modem to temporarily reduce the maximum transmission speed that that modem was capable of performing—for example, by reducing its incoming capability from 7 Mbps to 1 Mbps."
"However, according to providers we spoke with, such reductions could violate the agreed-upon levels of services for which customers have paid," GAO points out.
And that is even before any new regulations that specifically would outlaw packet shaping that could, for example, limit video streaming, gaming, and peer-to-peer and other bandwidth-intensive applications during daytime work hours, when teleworkers will have an arguably greater need to maintain functioning connections for voice and data operations essential to their work.
Overly-casual positioning of the need for "packet equality" rules can be dangerous, as the GAO points out.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Google Blocks Calls to About 100 High-Cost Telephone Numbers
Google says that although it still blocks use of Google Voice to terminate calls to fewer than 100 U.S. telephone numbers with unusually high termination cost, it still does so. Earlier, Google Voice had been blocking calls to thousands of numbers in some exchanges.
In a letter to the Federal Communications Commission, Google says a June 2009 study it conducted found that the top 10 U.S. telephone prefixes Google Voice was terminating accounted for 1.1 percent of its monthly call volume, about 161 times the expected volume for a "typical" prefix. That 1.1 percent of calls also accounted for 26.2 percent of its monthly termination costs.
Google says terminating those calls costs as much as 39 cents a minute. Google therefore blocked Google Voice calls to less than 100 U.S. telephone numbers, based on that study.
The difference is that where Google had before only been able to block calls to prefixes, it now can block specific telephone numbers with highly asymmetric traffic typical of free conference call services, for example, which never place outbound calls, but simply receive them.
In a letter to the Federal Communications Commission, Google says a June 2009 study it conducted found that the top 10 U.S. telephone prefixes Google Voice was terminating accounted for 1.1 percent of its monthly call volume, about 161 times the expected volume for a "typical" prefix. That 1.1 percent of calls also accounted for 26.2 percent of its monthly termination costs.
Google says terminating those calls costs as much as 39 cents a minute. Google therefore blocked Google Voice calls to less than 100 U.S. telephone numbers, based on that study.
The difference is that where Google had before only been able to block calls to prefixes, it now can block specific telephone numbers with highly asymmetric traffic typical of free conference call services, for example, which never place outbound calls, but simply receive them.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Will Telecom Markets Grow in 2010?
Worldwide telecom spending will decline four percent in 2009 with revenue of nearly $1.9 trillion. In 2010, telecom spending is forecast to grow 3.2 percent, say researchers at Gartner. The question lots of people logically will have is what pattern growth in U.S. enterprise and smaller business markets will take.
Qwest provided some anecdotal evidence during its third quarter earnings report. "As far as the activity in BMG and wholesale, I would say, yes. we are seeing some quicker decision making," says Teresa Taylor, Qwest COO. "Quicker decision making" is a sign of more buying intent and activity, as longer decision cycles represent less intent and activity.
Qwest's business markets group sells to enterprises, so the anecdote suggests enterprise demand, at least for Qwest, is growing. Business markets segment income of $409 million was flat, compared to the second quarter, but increased 11 percent year over year.
The caveat here is that Qwest believes it has been doing better than AT&T and Verizon over the last couple of quarters. All Taylor will say that trends are "positive."
Qwest provided some anecdotal evidence during its third quarter earnings report. "As far as the activity in BMG and wholesale, I would say, yes. we are seeing some quicker decision making," says Teresa Taylor, Qwest COO. "Quicker decision making" is a sign of more buying intent and activity, as longer decision cycles represent less intent and activity.
Qwest's business markets group sells to enterprises, so the anecdote suggests enterprise demand, at least for Qwest, is growing. Business markets segment income of $409 million was flat, compared to the second quarter, but increased 11 percent year over year.
The caveat here is that Qwest believes it has been doing better than AT&T and Verizon over the last couple of quarters. All Taylor will say that trends are "positive."
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Verizon to Debut Motorola Droid Nov. 6, 2009
The Android operating system supports running of multiple applications at once, and allows toggling between as many as six simultaneous applications. Google searches can be conducted using voice input and results are location dependent. Content on the phone, such as apps and contacts plus the Web can be searched using the search box.
"Push" Gmail is supported, as is "push" Microsoft Exchange email. "Google Maps Navigation" provides turn-by-turn voice guidance as a free feature of Google Maps.
Droid will be available in the United States exclusively at Verizon Wireless Communications Stores and online for $199.99 with a new two-year customer agreement after a $100 mail-in rebate.
Customers will receive the rebate in the form of a debit card; upon receipt, customers may use the card as cash anywhere debit cards are accepted.
Customers will need to subscribe to a nationwide voice plan and an email and Web for plan. Nationwide voice plans begin at $39.99 for monthly access for 450 minutes and an "Email and Web for Smartphone" plan costs $29.99 for monthly access.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Consumption-Based Billing Coming?
Sandvine has released Usage Management 2.5, a software solution that enables fixed-line network operators to implement consumption-based billing models, real-time subscriber communications and multiple service plan tiers. The move is significant as it suggests retail pricing might move in that direction in the future, representing a major shift in retail pricing models.
Historically, consumption-based billing has been problematic for Internet service providers. Time Warner Cable tested and then decided not to implement metered billing earlier in 2009 after widespread consumer resistance to tests in in Rochester, N.Y., Austin and San Antonio, Tex., and Greensboro, N.C.
User behavior also is powerfully affected by billing methods. At one point in time America Online charged users by the minute for their dial-up Internet access usage. When it converted to flat fee billing, usage and subscribers exploded, and AOL became the largest U.S. ISP.
Similar results have been seen when other types of services, such as voice calls, also moved from per-minute to flat rate or "buckets" of usage. Generally, users spend more time talking or using the Internet when they are not metered for that usage.
Mobile voice services have a half-way approach that combines usage limits with much of the perceived freedom users feel when they are not charged strict per-minute charges. Such "buckets" of usage are a likely direction much retail Internet access pricing will move as bandwidth-intensive applications become more important and if new "network neutrality" rules forbid ISPs from shaping overall demand at times of peak congestion.
The alternative to traffic shaping then would shift to other measures such as increasing raw bandwidth or providing incentives for users to limit their consumption at peak hours. The former obviously requires more investment, which then would have to be reflected in higher prices, while the latter would allow for more gradual investments and therefore stable or more slowly increasing prices.
One problem today is that few consumers have any idea how much bandwidth they use. The new Sandvine tool would simultaneously allow users to monitor and understand their own behavior, as well as provide ISPs with better ways to create plans matched to end user behavior.
The Sandvine tool also would help ISPs create quality-sensitive service or personalized plans, assuming Federal Communications Commission or Congressional rules allow them to be offered.
Historically, consumption-based billing has been problematic for Internet service providers. Time Warner Cable tested and then decided not to implement metered billing earlier in 2009 after widespread consumer resistance to tests in in Rochester, N.Y., Austin and San Antonio, Tex., and Greensboro, N.C.
User behavior also is powerfully affected by billing methods. At one point in time America Online charged users by the minute for their dial-up Internet access usage. When it converted to flat fee billing, usage and subscribers exploded, and AOL became the largest U.S. ISP.
Similar results have been seen when other types of services, such as voice calls, also moved from per-minute to flat rate or "buckets" of usage. Generally, users spend more time talking or using the Internet when they are not metered for that usage.
Mobile voice services have a half-way approach that combines usage limits with much of the perceived freedom users feel when they are not charged strict per-minute charges. Such "buckets" of usage are a likely direction much retail Internet access pricing will move as bandwidth-intensive applications become more important and if new "network neutrality" rules forbid ISPs from shaping overall demand at times of peak congestion.
The alternative to traffic shaping then would shift to other measures such as increasing raw bandwidth or providing incentives for users to limit their consumption at peak hours. The former obviously requires more investment, which then would have to be reflected in higher prices, while the latter would allow for more gradual investments and therefore stable or more slowly increasing prices.
One problem today is that few consumers have any idea how much bandwidth they use. The new Sandvine tool would simultaneously allow users to monitor and understand their own behavior, as well as provide ISPs with better ways to create plans matched to end user behavior.
The Sandvine tool also would help ISPs create quality-sensitive service or personalized plans, assuming Federal Communications Commission or Congressional rules allow them to be offered.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Wirefly’s Top 10 Most-Anticipated Cell Phones
In a major change, the top-two "most anticipated" new mobile devices are made by Motorola. That hasn't happened for quite some time, and will be a huge test of Motorola's decision to rely on Android as its ticket back into the top ranks of manufacturers of "hot" devices.
The launches are equally important for mobile service providers, who have found devices to be primary ways of differentiating their services. We'll have to see, but it is possible, perhaps likely, that a key new feature of the top-two Android devices will be their methods of integrating contact information and status updates across applications. That's an angle on "unified communications" we have not seen so much in the mobile arena.
Here's Wirefly's ranking and commentary.
1. Motorola Droid (Verizon Wireless) - The most anticipated cell phone launch of the season is just days away, but the hype for this the Motorola Droid smartphone has been building for quite some time. Verizon Wireless has invested heavily in a national “teaser” marketing campaign, while keeping the details about this Android-based device close to the vest. The Droid is the first commercial phone released with the new Android 2.0 platform, and has been dubbed the “iPhone killer” by many a technology-writer. Verizon Wireless is stoking the fire with a campaign that touts all the things the Droid does that the iPhone doesn’t – from running multiple apps, to a full slide-out keyboard, to changeable batteries and memory to a 5.0 megapixel camera that takes photos in the dark.
2. Motorola CLIQ MB200 (T-Mobile) - The highly-anticipated Motorola CLIQ is the new king of the T-Mobile Android smartphone lineup, and the first since the original G-1 to have a full slide-out keyboard. What really makes it buzz-worthy, though, is that it utilizes the new MotoBlur user interface that syncs your social media, contacts, and e-mail in real time, providing instant access to the latest happenings and messages from friends. (The Cliq is currently available to existing T-Mobile customers, however, new customers will not be able to purchase the device until November 2nd, and therefore, it still garners a spot on our top picks.)
3. Samsung Moment (Sprint) - Sprint’s second Android device, the Samsung Moment, mark’s Samsung’s entry into the Android smartphone market with a full slide-out keyboard and a first-of-its-kind AMOLED touch screen, providing unprecedented brightness that’s also kind to your battery life.
4. LG Chocolate Touch (Verizon Wireless) – The LG Chocolate is an iconic Verizon Wireless phone, and this new touch version should be even sweeter than its predecessors.
5. Samsung Behold II (T-Mobile) – The Behold II is the sequel to the very successful Samsung Behold but with one MAJOR difference - the latest version runs on the Android smartphone operating system. The Behold II also features a "cube menu" that provides quick access to six multimedia features at the flick of a finger: music, photos, videos, the Web, YouTube, and Amazon MP3.
6. HTC Desire 6200 (Verizon Wireless) – Verizon Wireless is making headlines with the Droid, but is expected to follow quickly with a second Android-powered smartphone dubbed the Desire. The Desire will not have a keyboard, and will boast HTC’s touch screen “Sense” interface that has won rave reviews on the HTC Hero.
7. Sprint Palm Pixi (Sprint) – The Sprint Palm Pixi is being touted as a tiny, sleek webOS-based handset that offers many of the same features and functionality as the Pre without the hefty price tag.
8 . BlackBerry Storm 2 (Verizon Wireless) – This next generation of the touch screen BlackBerry Storm looks similar to the original model on the outside, but boasts notable improvements on the inside such as a Wi-Fi radio, sleeker design, and an improved SurePress typing system.
9. BlackBerry Bold 9700 (AT&T & T-Mobile) –This smartphone is an updated version of the high-end Blackberry Bold that hit the market last year. It is thinner and lighter with a faster Web browser than its predecessor and replaces the original Bold's track ball with an optical track pad.
10. LG Shine 2 (AT&T) – The successor to the immensely popular Shine; but as its name indicates, it promises to be twice as sleek and sexy.
The launches are equally important for mobile service providers, who have found devices to be primary ways of differentiating their services. We'll have to see, but it is possible, perhaps likely, that a key new feature of the top-two Android devices will be their methods of integrating contact information and status updates across applications. That's an angle on "unified communications" we have not seen so much in the mobile arena.
Here's Wirefly's ranking and commentary.
1. Motorola Droid (Verizon Wireless) - The most anticipated cell phone launch of the season is just days away, but the hype for this the Motorola Droid smartphone has been building for quite some time. Verizon Wireless has invested heavily in a national “teaser” marketing campaign, while keeping the details about this Android-based device close to the vest. The Droid is the first commercial phone released with the new Android 2.0 platform, and has been dubbed the “iPhone killer” by many a technology-writer. Verizon Wireless is stoking the fire with a campaign that touts all the things the Droid does that the iPhone doesn’t – from running multiple apps, to a full slide-out keyboard, to changeable batteries and memory to a 5.0 megapixel camera that takes photos in the dark.
2. Motorola CLIQ MB200 (T-Mobile) - The highly-anticipated Motorola CLIQ is the new king of the T-Mobile Android smartphone lineup, and the first since the original G-1 to have a full slide-out keyboard. What really makes it buzz-worthy, though, is that it utilizes the new MotoBlur user interface that syncs your social media, contacts, and e-mail in real time, providing instant access to the latest happenings and messages from friends. (The Cliq is currently available to existing T-Mobile customers, however, new customers will not be able to purchase the device until November 2nd, and therefore, it still garners a spot on our top picks.)
3. Samsung Moment (Sprint) - Sprint’s second Android device, the Samsung Moment, mark’s Samsung’s entry into the Android smartphone market with a full slide-out keyboard and a first-of-its-kind AMOLED touch screen, providing unprecedented brightness that’s also kind to your battery life.
4. LG Chocolate Touch (Verizon Wireless) – The LG Chocolate is an iconic Verizon Wireless phone, and this new touch version should be even sweeter than its predecessors.
5. Samsung Behold II (T-Mobile) – The Behold II is the sequel to the very successful Samsung Behold but with one MAJOR difference - the latest version runs on the Android smartphone operating system. The Behold II also features a "cube menu" that provides quick access to six multimedia features at the flick of a finger: music, photos, videos, the Web, YouTube, and Amazon MP3.
6. HTC Desire 6200 (Verizon Wireless) – Verizon Wireless is making headlines with the Droid, but is expected to follow quickly with a second Android-powered smartphone dubbed the Desire. The Desire will not have a keyboard, and will boast HTC’s touch screen “Sense” interface that has won rave reviews on the HTC Hero.
7. Sprint Palm Pixi (Sprint) – The Sprint Palm Pixi is being touted as a tiny, sleek webOS-based handset that offers many of the same features and functionality as the Pre without the hefty price tag.
8 . BlackBerry Storm 2 (Verizon Wireless) – This next generation of the touch screen BlackBerry Storm looks similar to the original model on the outside, but boasts notable improvements on the inside such as a Wi-Fi radio, sleeker design, and an improved SurePress typing system.
9. BlackBerry Bold 9700 (AT&T & T-Mobile) –This smartphone is an updated version of the high-end Blackberry Bold that hit the market last year. It is thinner and lighter with a faster Web browser than its predecessor and replaces the original Bold's track ball with an optical track pad.
10. LG Shine 2 (AT&T) – The successor to the immensely popular Shine; but as its name indicates, it promises to be twice as sleek and sexy.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
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