Google Might Try to Act More Like Apple

Google is reported to be planning a unified user interface that will be imposed across Android products, ending the fragmentation that dogs the system, but also restricting partners' development of their own user experiences. That shift in philosophy would pull Google closer to the way Apple operates.

The top priority for the next Android update, codenamed Gingerbread, reportedly is to homogenize the user experience and address criticisms of fragmentation. This could severely curtail the freedom of licensees to create their own user interface overlays, most famously, Motorola's Motoblur and HTC's Sense.

It's probably a toss up at this point which approach is better. Apple has proven that absolute uniformity of experience is no barrier to wild acceptance. On the other hand, a uniform approach to user interface will tend to dampen the pace of innovation to a degree.

Google does have a big stake in preventing Android fragmentation, which makes it much harder for developers to create applications guaranteed to run on any Android device with a specific version of the operating system. On the other hand, the HTC "Sense" user interface is quite a differentiator, so handset suppliers might not like the restrictions on their freedom of movement.

As with all engineering decisions, there will be trade offs. A uniform UI is better for software developers, but arguably worse for hardware developers. Most consumers seem to indicate by their buying preferences that a standard UI is, if not a "good" thing, then at least no barrier.

In the battle between "open" and "closed" approaches to development, "closed" seems to be getting more traction these days.

Google risks OEM wrath with unified Android UI plan - Rethink Wireless

FCC Power Grab Will Face Huge Legal Challenges

Despite strong bipartisan objections from a majority of congress, the FCC voted to move ahead to take public comments on FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski’s “third way” proposal to reclassify broadband providers under Title II common carrier status.

It’s truly amazing how we got to such a state of affairs. The FCC had gotten everything it wanted from Comcast before it even issued a ruling, and the entire reclassification movement is incoherent because it is based on a myth to begin with.

The whole thing is a manufactured crisis based on irrational hysteria over the DC Circuit ruling on the Comcast-vs-FCC case.

The courts have ruled many times in favor and against the FCC, yet the reclassification movement acts as if the DC Circuit ruling against the FCC was some earth shaking event that permanently strips the FCC of its authority unless the FCC does something extraordinary to counter it. The reality is that an FCC acting brashly to bypass the court’s ruling would likely result in a nasty rebuke from the courts.

The court has been very clear that it would reject any power grab by the FCC that would “free the Commission from its congressional tether”. With 74 congressional Democrats signing a letter opposing reclassification and the majority of Republicans on board, it’s clear that the FCC doesn’t even have the support of congress much less explicit authority. Furthermore, it appears that the FCC may be violating a legal precedent set in the Midwest Video II case.

Digital Society � Blog Archive � FCC third way – Shattering the congressional tether

Not Much Actual Video Cord Cutting Going On, Nielsen Says

Consumers who really have stopped buying multi-channel video and watch online video instead are young and light TV viewers, a new analysis by Nielsen suggests.

Young, emerging households, younger college graduates and  lower to middle income consumers who may not be fully convinced of the need to pay for digital cable represent the core group abandoning their multi-channel video subscriptions and substituting online video.

Nielsen data shows that these individuals are typically light TV viewers who watch 40 percent less TV per day than the national average. And while they stream about twice the average amount of video, they still only stream about 10 minutes per day, hardly an indication of a monumental shift to online-only viewing, Nielsen says.

The number of people per month viewing online video increased six percent year-over-year, the study shows.

Online video streaming still only accounts for less than 2.5 percent of total video consumption across all demographics.

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Tablets Becoming a User's Second PC

Tablets will be used as a second computer, primarily for media consumption, with a laptop becoming their principal computing device, Forrester Research analyst Sarah Epps says.

Tablet computers like Apple's iPad will outsell netbooks by 2012 and surpass desktops by 2015, growing at a 42 percent compound annual growth rate between now and 2015. She estimates there will be about 3.5 million tablets sold in 2010.

By 2015, only laptops will have a greater share of the market, with 42 percent, versus a projected 23 percent market share for tablets.

Big Smartphones, Small Tablets

One wonders how big smartphone screens can get, and small tablet screens can get. The Sprint HTC Evo 4G and Verizon's Motorola Droid X have huge screens of about 4.3 inches and 4.4 inches, respectively.

The Evo 4G measures 4.8 by 2.6 by 0.5 inches and has a 4.3-inch touchscreen. T-Mobile's HD2 phone, also built by HTC, has similar dimensions--4.7 by 2.6 by 0.4 inches--as well as a 4.3-inch display. The Droid X, slated to debut next week, is even bigger than the Evo 4G or HD2, and has a 4.4-inch screen. By comparison, Apple's new iPhone 4 is relative petite with its 3.5-inch LCD.

The Dell Streak, an upcoming tablet device, will feature a 5-inch touchscreen. While the Streak will have 3G broadband and Wi-Fi, as well as a front-facing camera for video chat, it's definitely not a smartphone, according to Dell.

There are boundaries for how big a phone can be, and still be usable, though. One might argue the same thing is true of tablets. There is some point at which they likely are too small to be highly useful. Right now, it's hard to say where the line is, though.

Weight and battery size are other issues. To drive a larger screen you need a bigger battery. That adds both heft and weight to any device, but especially for a phone.

Supersized Smartphones: How Big Can They Get? - PCWorld

FCC Votes to Open Title II Reclassification for Broadband Access

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission has taken the first step toward imposing limited regulations on broadband providers by voting Thursday to launch a notice of inquiry exploring the change.

The commission voted three to two to launch the notice of inquiry, which asks for public comment on a proposal by FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski to reclassify broadband as a common-carrier regulated service. It might be an expensive proposition, if the FCC proceeds.

Proposed regulation of high-speed Internet service as a "common carrier" service could cost the U.S. economy at least $62 billion annually over the next five years--a total of $310 billion--and eliminate 502,000 jobs, according to a study released by the Advanced Communications Law & Policy Institute at New York University Law School.

The report estimates that broadband providers and related industries may cut their investments by 10 percent to 30 percent from 2010 to 2015 in response to additional regulation.

At at 30 percent reduction in investment, the economy might sustain an $80 billion hit, according to Charles Davidson, director of the law school's Advanced Communications Law & Policy Institute.

"There will be follow-on effects in the whole ecosystem," said Bret Swanson, president of technology researcher Entropy Economics in Zionsville, Ind., who co-authored the study with Davidson. "A diminution of investment by the big infrastructure companies will reduce network capacity, new services, and investment by all the ecosystem companies."

These investments would spur capital expenditures by others in the ecosystem. A five-percent incremental increase in capital expenditures by the rest of the  ecosystem companies could boost investment by approximately $18 billion per year between 2010 and 2015--about $90 billion over five years--and yield an additional 450,000 jobs created or sustained.

One might ask whether it makes sense to place further burdens on a business whose revenue steadily is declining as a percentage of total end-user communications spending. It wouldn't be the first time the FCC or Congress has moved to essentially disrupt industry structure in hopes of spurring higher consumer welfare.

In the Telecommunications Act of 1996, voice services were liberalized. What nobody apparently anticipated is that wireline voice would suddenly reach its zenith, and begin a long, steady decline. The background assumption was that the business was a "growth" business, rather than a "declining" business. But common sense suggests that different policies are needed when a business is shrinking, than when it is growing, when a business can grow faster because of more competition and when it will simply decline faster because of new constraints. $310 Billion Economic Loss, Over 5 Years if Title II Rules are Imposed

Is Email Going Away?

Lots of people, including Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg, think email is fading away as a communiation activity. "Only 11 percent of teens email each day," Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg says. "Email is probably going away."

Part of that behavior pattern can be explained by the fact that teens are not in the work world in the same way as older users are, and email remains highly important in the work world.

This is good news for Facebook and online advertising in general, she argues.
People are more comfortable seeing ads directed at them in their Facebook "News Feed" than they are in their email inboxes, she argues.

While ads in an inbox are called "spam," Facebook users will even sometimes click "Like" on a brand's Facebook page and volunteer to receive messages directly from advertisers.

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