Mobile Advertising Could Have a Big Year in 2011

Mobile marketing is finally catching on as a viable marketing and advertising platform, and will be the fastest growing of digital formats in 2011, according to a survey conducted by Deutsche Bank.

In addition to mobile, the fastest-growing online advertising categories in 2011 will be social media and online video, all of which are believed to be gaining share of wallet within online marketing budgets.

Classic display appears to be the most vulnerable to this shift. In fact, half of the respondents think display is losing share, and only 20 percent consider it is gaining share.

“It finally feels like the tipping point for mobile is here,” Deutsche Bank says in its report. “According to our media buyers, mobile will represent roughly five percent to seven percent of online budgets in 2011. That would imply spending of about $1 billion to $1.5 billion in the U.S. market, assuming total online spending of $28 billion.

Mobile Marketing and Technology

Bad News for Big Media

Jim Breyer, venture capitalist at Accel Partner says “75 percent of new Internet company value in next 10 years will be created outside U.S.."

Also, he predicts that “80 percent to 90 percent of big media companies are dying a slow death.” For that reason, he as a venture capitalist "absolutely no way" would be investing in any new companies doing TV, newspapers, or magazines.”

DLD Lost For Words About Nokia - Tech Europe - WSJ

SMS and Email Marketing: Complementary Rather than Substitutes

There is some truth to the notion that text messaging campaigns are substitutes for email campaigns. There also is some truth to the notion that they are complementary.

The "personal" nature of text messaging and the high need for user opt in are key reasons why the channels mostly appeal to different types of retailer relationships. Text messages require some sort of pre-existing relationship. Perhaps email messages are supposed to require opt in as well, but frequently permission is more tacit than formally acknowledged.

A user that has opted in to receive SMS messages presumably already has significant interest in a particular product or retailer. Email messages can cover a wider range of consumers.

Mobile Video Consumption Up 47%

While the number of people watching videos on their mobile phones remains relatively small compared to TV, they are increasingly using the devices to that end. On a year-to-year basis, the number of people watching mobile video increased more than 43 percent, while the amount of time spent doing so was up almost seven percent, according to Nielsen.

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Overall Usage Number of Users 13+ (in 000s) – Monthly Reach
	Q2 2010	Q1 2010	Q2 2009	% Diff Yr to Yr
Using a Mobile Phone ^	229,375	229,495	220,527	+3.99%
Mobile Subscribers Watching Video on a Mobile Phone ^	21,957	20,284	15,267	+43.82%
Source: The Nielsen Company As of Q2 2010, 22 million people watched video on a mobile device

Web-based Email Shows Signs of Decline

In November 2010, the number of U.S. visitors to web-based email sites declined six percent compared to the previous year, while the number of users accessing email using their mobile devices grew by 36 percent, comScore reports.g

“From PCs to mobile devices, whether its email, social media, IM or texting, consumers have many ways to communicate and can do so at any time and in any place," says Mark Donovan, comScore senior vice president of mobile.

The decline in web-based email is a byproduct of these shifting dynamics and the increasing availability of on-demand communication options.

The broad conclusion might be that people are using email less, but when they do so, it is likely to be on a mobile device. That isn't likely to matter much for person-to-person or person-to-multiple-person messaging. But it will be significant for email marketers, who no longer can assume their messages are received on a larger-screen PC, with ability to display images natively, for example.

Email Evolution: Web-based Email Shows Signs of Decline in the U.S. While Mobile Email Usage on the Rise - comScore

Google Management Shake-up: Good for Google?

Both Google and Apple now face scrutiny over management issues at each company.

Apple iPhone: 2 better than 1

Apple says "Two is better than one." Better for Apple; better for consumers; better for all the suppliers of iPhone components; better for mobile app providers working in the Apple ecosystem; arguably better for Verizon Wireless; not good for AT&T; still bad for Sprint and T-Mobile USA.

That sort of illustrates the conundrum mobile service providers now face, and that fixed-line providers have faced for some time, notably that value in both ecosystems has shifted in the direction of devices and apps.

That isn't to say "access" lacks definite value. Spending time someplace with no broadband access, or with poor access, will quickly illustrate the point. Of course, contestants in the apps and devices parts of the ecosystem would say they face significant competitive pressure as well.

But the fact remains: people might "love" their apps and devices. They rarely have any emotional attachment to their "access." Of course, it is much harder to develop a true brand preference for an intangible product, compared to something tangible such as a device or a favored application.

From Apple's point of view, two is better than one. But the ad indirectly points out yet again where value is shifting in the communications business.