Search Can Predict Smart Phone Launch Success

Google says search predicts smart phone sales with over 90 percent accuracy.

In its "2012 Smartphone Launch Predictor" study, Google found that an extra 1,000 news stories in the weeks before launch will likely lead to a nine percent boost in smartphone sales.

About 52 percent of purchase-related searches occur before launch (and over one third of general smartphone searches).

An extra 25,000 mobile searches will likely increase smartphone sales 17 percent. One month after launch, those searches boost sales 20 percent.

Tablets a Nightmare for Microsoft?

Are tablets potentially a nightmare for Microsoft and other leaders in the PC market? Some think that could happen. The indicators include a shift of buyer spending towards tablets, and away from PCs.

At work, there is a trend of workers substituting tablets, smart phones and Apple PCs for Windows machines. Office suites can be sourced online, at free or low costs. Developer attention is shifting to iOS and Android.

And then there are the questions about Windows 8 and Windows Phone. Those fears might be overblown. But the data points seem to suggest there is legitimate danger. We will know more as Windows 8 rolls out, and as Windows Phone efforts intensify in 2013. 

Digital Wallet Value Proposition Might be Clearer for Online Payments

New markets often do not develop as proponents originally envisioned, at least in part because end users and customers often decide that the value represented by an innovation is different than what was intended by the developers. At least where it comes to products or services they never have seen before, people are unpredictable. 

That might also be true for "mobile wallets" and "digital wallets," which generally are seen as innovations for retail checkout and shopping. But it might turn out that people find more value for online shopping and checkout. 

Today’s consumer types in an average of 44 fields when shopping online, and V.me gets you down to five or six, Visa says. 

Smart Phone Becomes “Primary” Screen for Teenagers, for First Time

Once upon a time, the movie theater was the primary content consumption screen, followed by the television. These days, a smart phone, tablet or PC increasingly is likely to have become the primary media consumption screen for a significant percentage of users, a study by Orange suggests.

The “Orange Exposure 2012/2013” study shows a  stark contrast in mobile media habits between teenagers and adults, for example.

For teenagers, the mobile phone is the primary screen, for the first time, not the TV or PC.

Also, adults are using multiple screens more interchangeably than ever before, choosing the most suitable screen for any particular situation, Orange says.

In the United Kingdom, 83 percent of teenagers have a smart phone and 95 percent have one in Spain. In addition, 92 percent of teenagers in the United Kingdom say mobile is a “way to always have a media device at hand” and 55 per cent of teenagers in the UK say that they prefer their mobile over other screens.

Consumers also are increasingly using their mobile or tablet to replicate the same experience on their PC, about  62 percent of consumers in the United Kingdom agree. Consumers also are multitasking. Some 90 percent of consumers access the internet at the same time as watching TV,  in the United Kingdom. 

es the tablet device is designed to be used as a content consumption device.

At the same time as interchangeable usage is occurring, larger screens on smart phones are making accessing multimedia easier, and “smaller” sized tablets are increasing their portability. In Spain, 16 percent of tablet owners also own the more portable Samsung Galaxy Tab, for example.

The percentage of people primarily accessing mobile media ‘out and about’ on both their mobile and tablet has significantly increased across all markets.

In the United Kingdom 58 percent of respondents say they use their devices to access content and media while out and about.

Tablet use to access content and media “out and about” has grown from 11 percent of users in 2011 to 21 percent in 2012 in the United Kingdom.

And though some would say tablets are not a substitute for a PC, about 75 percent of tablet media users want to “find the same things on their tablet as on their PC,” the study also found. That doesn’t mean people believe they can “work” on a tablet in the same way as on a PC.

But where it comes to content and information, they do expect they will be able to consume all the same content they would expect to get on a PC.

Tablet devices arguably also are used as commerce platforms. Some 62 percent of tablet users have used their tablet to pay, redeem or reserve something over the last six months.  

Some 58 percent of tablet users paid for something online. The point is that tablets and smart phones are changing user behavior.

Freemium Apps Grow Google Play Revenue 350% in 2012

Freemium app revenues in both iOS and Google Play stores have, over the last two years,  more than quadrupled, for both Google Play and the Apple Store. 

In 2012, global "freemium" app revenues on Google Play have grown 3.5 times over 2011, App Annie says, Those revenues include content or virtual goods sales inside the free to use apps and advertising. 

Premium revenues (paid apps)  for both app stores remained relatively flat in 2011 and 2012. 

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Value and Data Consumption are Not Closely Correlated, for Smart Phone Users

Though it is helpful in some ways to know how much total bandwidth is consumed from fixed devices, on fixed networks, compared to mobile devices on mobile networks, volume of data is not a reasonable proxy for value.

The reason is that the value of the mobile applications is very high, even if total consumed bandwidth is relatively low. And it appears the value of many different Internet applications is one reason so many people have embraced smart phones.

On the other hand, few of the popular activities really consume all that much bandwidth, and many of the activities have a real-time focus. The value comes largely from the context, the ability to get information immediately and use it to direct one's activities.

Chicago Issues RFI for Municipal Wi-Fi

The City of Chicago has issued a request for information for potential bidders on a new municipal Wi-Fi service that would serve public areas such as parks, and areas around research institutions, Chicago Business reports.  

The network does not appear to aim at providing service to residential consumers in the manner of high-speed access typically provided by cable companies and telephone companies, but is more a spot deployment more reminiscent of a competitive local exchange carrier network. 

At least so far, similar efforts have generally proven unworkable.