Amazon Sees 30-Minute Delivery by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

At least for packages up to five pounds, Amazon believes it can commercially deliver merchandise by unmanned aerial vehicles. 

Technology Firm Business Models So Varied We Sometimes Have Trouble Identifying What a "Tech" Firm Is

An example of the diversity of business models, as well as the shift in technology firm business models, is clear from any look at advertising revenues. For the first time, ever, leading technology firms have advertising-supported or transaction-supported business models.

The other key--and longstanding--observation is the “software is eating the world” adage having serious relevance: more of the value of technology now comes from software, compared to hardware.

Looking only at mobile display advertising, Facebook had in 2015 generated $5 billion in revenue, Google and Twitter nearly $2 billion, with total U.S. mobile-only advertising generating about $19 billion in 2015.

Amazon and Alibaba, meanwhile, show that a big technology company can be built on transaction revenues. Granted, some might not view Amazon or Alibaba as technology firms. But that might be the point: how technology firms create business models is much more varied than ever before.

In that sense, Apple is among the more-traditional firms, with revenue built on device sales.

How Might Ecosystems Change, 5G and Beyond?

There is a very good reason fifth generation mobile networks get so much attention: 5G will be a big business, across a wide ecosystem, and likely will create the foundation for business models now yet in existence.

And, as has been the case in the computing industry, each successive generation of mobile networks creates the possibility of major shifts in industry leadership. In other words, the leader in one era are not necessarily the leaders in the next, or subsequent generations.

One simple example: many firms that lead the fixed network infrastructure market in the analog era--either in the cable TV or telecom supplier markets--no longer exist.

Nortel is gone. Alcatel and Lucent are gone. Scientific-Atlanta and General Instrument are gone. Their assets live on, but not the companies.

The other significant development is that, in the mobile and IP era, over the top app providers and mobile device suppliers are major new segments of the value chain.

OTT did not exist in the analog era, and the device suppliers were TV and fixed network telephone suppliers. Neither TV nor fixed network phone suppliers have much leverage in the new era.

In the core “access networks” portion of the ecosystem, one is not crazy to consider major potential shifts as well. The ultimate impact of new access providers and technologies remains an open question. But potential for major disruption exists.

source: Reed Hundt

source: Reed Hundt

Content Firms Now Drive Global Bandwidth

Globally, IP video will represent 80 percent of all traffic by 2019, up from 67 percent in 2014, according to Cisco. That necessarily drives other trends.

For the first time, more than 50 percent of the data traversing both Transatlantic and Transpacific submarine networks will be driven by content providers, not traditional telcos.  

Likewise, 50 percent of the volume of content consumed over the internet, globally, is served by content delivery networks, and is growing.

And since much of the total video is driven by a relatively small number of content providers, operating huge data centers, it also follows that global undersea traffic ultimately originates in a relatively small number of global content store locations.

At the same time, “cloud computing” magnifies the trend, as a growing percentage of total computing activities occur at cloud data centers.

The point is that global traffic is driven by content.

source: Cisco

One Answer for Question: "Will Millennials Behave Differently When They Have Children?"

One big uncertainty about video consumption preferences among younger viewers is whether those preferences would change--and more resemble habits of older viewing cohorts--as younger viewers got older and established families.

At least one study suggests a bit of good news but much bad news. The good news is that Millennials who have children do indeed increase their consumption of linear video.

The bad news is that even Millennials with children do not watch linear video at levels of non-Millennial viewers. In face, Millennials with children watch a bit more than half the linear TV that non-Millennial viewers do.

Bad news, going forward, for linear TV.

source: L.E.K.

One Answer for Question: "Will Millennials Behave Differently When They Have Children?"

One big uncertainty about video consumption preferences among younger viewers is whether those preferences would change--and more resemble habits of older viewing cohorts--as younger viewers got older and established families.

At least one study suggests a bit of good news but much bad news. The good news is that Millennials who have children do indeed increase their consumption of linear video.

The bad news is that even Millennials with children do not watch linear video at levels of non-Millennial viewers. In face, Millennials with children watch a bit more than half the linear TV that non-Millennial viewers do.

Bad news, going forward, for linear TV.

source: L.E.K.

Fixed Network Business is in "Terminal Decline," EIU Says

Terminal decline is the phrase the Economist Intelligence Unit uses to describe the fixed network telecom business. Harsh words, perhaps, but instructive if one honestly has to assess the direction of public policy about fixed telecom networks.

The most fundamental observation: it does not make sense to add more regulation for an industry “in terminal decline.” If an industry really is dying, regulation that further distresses the business model is not needed, and ultimately does not matter.

Competitors often continue to argue that incumbent fixed network suppliers must be heavily regulated, because they have such overwhelming market power. But it is hard to square that position with the actual trends in the business.

If there are exceptions to the broad theme, it is the Internet access business, as well as mobility.

As the rollout of 3G and 4G connections proceeds rapidly, widening access to mobile broadband in developing markets, in 2016 Internet penetration is forecast to surpass 50 users per 100 people for the first time, the EIU says.

The other notable trend in mobility, aside from Internet access, is the role of content services.  Generally, “operators are likely to be less focused on acquiring new customers in 2016 than in coming up with plans to deliver more sophisticated and enticing content,” EIU argues.

The main point, though, is the prognosis: “terminal decline.” All strategy in the fixed network business has to be based around that one main trend.

source: Economist Intelligence Unit