10% of Fixed Internet Access Customers to Weigh Mobile Substitution Over Next Year?

Mobile substitution is not a new phenomenon in the telecom business, as first consumers began using mobile for voice instead of fixed services, then over-the-top for carrier messaging, and now OTT video as a substitute for linear video subscriptions.

And though there has been speculation for decades about the ability to substitute mobile or Wi-Fi for a fixed access connection, and though some percentage of consumers actually do so, it has not been a serious choice for most consumers.

That could change, if mobile “unlimited” data usage plans remain a staple. A study by Parks Associates suggests that perhaps 10 percent of U.S. broadband households are “likely to cancel their fixed broadband service” over the next 12 months, and use wireless or mobile data services as a replacement.

Now that all four leading U.S. mobile service providers offer some form of unlimited usage mobile data plan, one key barrier--the cost per gigabyte of mobile, versus fixed usage--is largely eliminated, for many consumers.

The other change which may be happening is the earlier move by all four leading providers to delink consumption of OTT video from data usage charges.

“Subscribers to value-added mobile data services are substantially more likely to cancel their fixed broadband service,” said Harry Wang, Parks Associates senior director. “This suggests that the use of a mobile phone for entertainment purposes contributes to the consumer perception that they can substitute mobile for fixed-data service with little or no pain.”

ITU Sees Minimum 5G Peak Speed Downstream at 20 Gbps

5G, known as IMT-2020 at the International Telecommunications Union, will feature a minimum peak data rate of 20 Gbps downstream and 10 Gbps upstream, for each connected device.

User-experienced data rates in a dense urban environment as set at 100 Mbps in the downlink and 50 Mbps in the uplink, per device.

Spectral efficiency minimums are 30 bits per Hertz in the downlink and 15 bits per Hertz in the uplink.

FCC Okays LTE-U, One of Many Steps Toward a "Converged" Spectrum Future

The Federal Communications Commission, T-Mobile US, Verizon, Ericsson and Nokia have taken new steps toward a communications business that uses spectrum more efficiently than ever before, in ways more dynamic than ever before, and “converges” licensed and unlicensed spectrum more tightly than in the past.

The Federal Communications Commission has authorizes LTE-U, a protocol that allows mobile operators to use some unused Wi-Fi spectrum in the U-NII-1 band (5150-5250 MHz) and U-NII-3 band (5725-5850 MHz) as those it were part of a licensed spectrum asset.

Some devices support LTE-U in hardware, including those using Qualcomm's X16 LTE modem (Snapdragon 820 chip and newer designs). That includes smartphones such as the Galaxy S7/S7 Edge, LG V20, and Google Pixel.  Existing T-Mobile phones will probably need a software update to enable LTE-U  functionality.

Verizon has been working towards LTE-U since at least 2015. And T-Mobile US has announced deployment of LTE-U  capabilities in its LTE network, following FCC certification of equipment from Ericsson and Nokia.

T-Mobile US expects to begin commercial LTE-U functions in the spring of 2017. Basically, LTE-U gives T-Mobile US customers the ability to bond some Wi-Fi spectrum (20 MHz) with T-Mobile’s licensed spectrum, while maintaining LTE sessions.

“LTE-U allows wireless providers to deliver mobile data traffic using unlicensed spectrum while
sharing the road, so to speak, with Wi-Fi,” said FCC Chairman Ajit Pai.

Smartphones Now are Content Consumption Devices

Though smartphones are best described as multi-function devices, among the key activities smartphones support is content consumption.

According to comScore, about 67 percent of all the time consumers spend with digital apps and services is on a smartphone, compared to about 33 percent of such time spent on PCs.

Smartphones also are the primary way most consumers interact with web apps and services as well.

Though much of that time is spent with mobile apps of various types, smartphones also will eventually emerge as a primary platform for video entertainment consumption as well.

source: comScore

source: comScore

source: comScore

AT&T Tests 39-GHz Fixed Wireless

AT&T has demonstrated use of a 39-GHz Nokia platform to deliver DirecTV Now streaming content over a fixed wireless connection. The test of the Nokia “AirScale” radio access platform took place at the AT&T Labs facility in Middletown, New Jersey. Though it is testing both 28-GHz and 39-GHz signal performance, AT&T now believes 39-GHz frequencies will be plentiful as an underpinning for gigabit internet access and video delivery.

The tests of pre-5G platforms in fixed modes is important for business model reasons, even if some do not believe fixed wireless will be so important for 5G revenues and apps. In fact, 5G fixed wireless might be quite significant.

Both AT&T and Verizon are testing use of pre-5G for fixed wireless purposes, important as a way for extending gigabit services without deploying new fiber-to-home infrastructure. With U.S. cable operators extending gigabit access to virtually every location over the next several years, fixed wireless might allow Verizon, AT&T and others to match such deployments faster, and at lower cost, than building brand-new fiber-to-home plant.

Also, since fixed wireless will build off of the network deployed to support mobile access, both AT&T and Verizon might find they can extend their fixed network footprint nearly nationwide, something neither has done so far.

Verizon will launch commercial pre-5G service for some customers in 11 markets throughout the United States, in the first half of 2017, in Ann Arbor, Atlanta, Bernardsville (NJ), Brockton (MA ), Dallas, Denver, Houston, Miami, Sacramento, Seattle and Washington, D.C.

The services will provide fixed wireless gigabit internet access service, not pre-5G mobile service, and seem to be targeted at selected lead customers as well, perhaps several thousand or so sites, including homes and businesses.

Some will take issue with the “pre-5G” platform, or perhaps the immediate focus on fixed wireless. Aside from the fact that supplying fixed wireless is something Verizon can do today, rather than waiting for the full standards to be ratified, fixed wireless also is one of the new use cases and revenue drivers for early 5G, many believe.

"Ericsson's partnership with Verizon in rolling out 5G customer trials is accelerating the global 5G ecosystem," said "These end-to-end solutions are a key step for preparing Verizon's network for commercial deployment with different 5G scenarios and use cases," said Rima Qureshi, Ericsson North America region head.

It matters, and matters perhaps significantly, if fixed wireless piggybacking on the 5G mobile infrastructure also can support widespread and affordable gigabit access services. Depending on how well the initial business case works, Verizon might well be able to dramatically extend its fixed network footprint nationwide, from its northeast and mid-Atlantic footprint.

That would represent a major new opportunity for Verizon, which has a relatively-limited fixed network geography.

Verizon to Launch Pre-5G Service in 11 Cities in 2017, Focusing on Fixed Wireless

Verizon will launch commercial pre-5G service for some customers in 11 markets throughout the United States, in the first half of 2017, in Ann Arbor, Atlanta, Bernardsville (NJ), Brockton (MA ), Dallas, Denver, Houston, Miami, Sacramento, Seattle and Washington, D.C.

The services will provide fixed wireless gigabit internet access service, not pre-5G mobile service, and seem to be targeted at selected lead customers as well, perhaps several thousand or so sites, including homes and businesses.

Some will take issue with the “pre-5G” platform, or perhaps the immediate focus on fixed wireless. Aside from the fact that supplying fixed wireless is something Verizon can do today, rather than waiting for the full standards to be ratified, fixed wireless also is one of the new use cases and revenue drivers for early 5G, many believe.

"Ericsson's partnership with Verizon in rolling out 5G customer trials is accelerating the global 5G ecosystem," said "These end-to-end solutions are a key step for preparing Verizon's network for commercial deployment with different 5G scenarios and use cases," said Rima Qureshi, Ericsson North America region head.

It matters, and matters perhaps significantly, if fixed wireless piggybacking on the 5G mobile infrastructure also can support widespread and affordable gigabit access services. Depending on how well the initial business case works, Verizon might well be able to dramatically extend its fixed network footprint nationwide, from its northeast and mid-Atlantic footprint.

That would represent a major new opportunity for Verizon, which has a relatively-limited fixed network geography.

How Artificial Intelligence Will Show Up in Mobile Apps

It sometimes is hard to envision how artificial intelligence will affect the applications and access  businesses. Voice interactions are probably the best present examples (Amazon Alexa, Google Home, Apple’s Siri), but pervasive (context-aware) apps are going to develop in the future.

Pervasive apps (usually mobile apps) adapt to their external environments, using geolocalization, phone sensors, externals sensors, surrounding data (places databases) to provide a highly-personalized user experience. Over time, machine learning (artificial intelligence) will enhance the ability to sift through huge amounts of data to personalize and contextualize at levels not presently possible.

At the same time, that will mean less need for active user actions to pull up and use data. That means less filling out of forms, for example, as apps will be able to predict what the user wants and act on the user’s behalf to provide answers and initiate actions.

A related and perhaps interim step is the use of "chat" platforms allowing organizations to get information, answer questions and transact with users and customers through messaging or virtual personal attendants (voice interfaces). That will likely also extend to smartphone communications with internet of things sensors and devices.

Gartner predicts that by 2018, 25 percent of new mobile apps will communicate with Internet of Things (IoT) devices.

Most IoT devices that talk to smartphones do so via an app or the browser, at least through 2018, according to Gartner researchers. But artificial intelligence could change all that.

"We are witnessing the beginning of the post-app era based on the evidence that users are starting to use fewer apps actively on their smartphones," according to Jessica Ekholm, research director at Gartner. "At the end of 2016, only 33 percent of survey respondents used six to 10 apps a month, which is down 6.2 percent from a year ago."

Another interim step is the growing use of voice interfaces.

A Gartner mobile apps survey found 35 percent of respondents using virtual personal assistants (VPAs) in 2016, up four percentage points from 2015. Some 71 percent of respondents used messaging apps, a three point increase in 2016.

Type of Apps	2015 Survey Respondents (%)	2016 Survey Respondents (%)
Social Media	85	83
Video	73	71
Maps	74	71
Messaging	68	71
Shopping	56	60
Personal Assistant	31	35

source: Gartner