GooglePhone: Big Issues

Speculation about a new Google Phone continues to mount. Add the Boston Globe to the Wall Street Journal as entities that have "uncovered" the prototype. Google executive Rich Miner, a co-founder of mobile software company Android (which was bought by Google two years ago), has not confirmed that he is working on a phone, but he is reported to have shown the alleged prototype to "a handful of Boston entrepreneurs and venture capitalists."

Dan Roth, president of VoiceSignal, and Mike Phillips, founder of speech-recognition firm Vlingo Inc., both are suggested as also working with Google on the device. Google's phone supposedly allows horizontal scrolling and has three-dimensional, animated buttons on the screen as well as a small QWERTY keyboard.

This will be interesting. Most tier one service providers will say Google is the competitor they worry about most, and wireless is the service now keeping the global industry moving forward.

We can safely dismiss the notion that Google will build handsets. We cannot discount Google becoming a service provider, though, as it just might bid for 700 MHz spectrum. In the meantime, it continues to work to seed existing networks with its software, so one cannot discount an "iPhone" deal with at least one wireless carrier.

But that's where matters get sticky. T-Mobile has the most to gain, but the worst network for browsing. Verizon has the network, but probably not the willingness. at&t is busy with iPhone and might not want the distraction. Sprint has the network and a long history of working with partners. The network access platform (CDMA) probably isn't the most important issue, but is a potential negative.

Then there's the issue of how coherent the value proposition is. BlackBerry is mobile email. iPhone is a fashion statement right now. It isn't clear what it will become as adoption broadens, though if it winds up being mobile Internet then Google has to take it on. Mobile search doesn't quite have the ring of something lots of end users will understand. The "Internet in your pocket" probably does, but iPhone is already there.

More important initially is the choice of network partner. "The Internet in your pocket when near a Wi-Fi access point" doesn't cut it, at least for me. That would have as little appeal as a mobile phone that only worked within range of a Wi-Fi access point. A small number of people might put up with the convenience, but it is hard to see lots of people doing so.

T-Mobile has lots of reasons for considering such a partnership. But that's the worst possible network for mobile browsing. As much as people complain about the bandwidth used to support the iPhone, they should have to use the T-Mobile data network before complaining. Negative user experience is about the only way to describe it.

Of course, Google could be angling for applications requiring low bandwidth, such as location-based and contextual information, not mobile search, or transaction capabilities based on such location-based capabilities. That wouldn't take much bandwidth. But that also wouldn't be the "Internet in your pocket."

Assuming the bandwidth issue can be finessed, the task of creating a new category remains. People understand the "email in your pocket" and "music in your pocket" positions. Mobile browsing, mobile payments, mobile advertising and location-aware services do not provide similar positions in the end user mind.

I suppose Google could attack the iPhone segment (similar features, much less price) but even there the message does not immediately seem clear.

Apple also had an advantage: it is well known for user interface innovation industrial design and ease of use. Apple also has a fanatical user base and was able to build off the wild success of the iPod. Google will not have those advantages.

And this is said by someone whose day begins and ends with Google, and for whom search is something that happens throughout the day. But the way I use Google (research) would not translate to the mobile environment. Mobile search would be a different use case and some new behaviors Google would have to stimulate and help create. Of course, BlackBerry and iPhone had to do so as well. I just can't tell you off hand what a Google Phone does for me, the way I can describe the BlackBerry and iPhone.

Separately, Google has filed a patent application covering an electronic on-line payment system it refers to as GPay. Using GPay, a server receives a text message from a payer containing a payment request for a specific amount. The server parses the text message to find out what value the payer account should be debited for, and
credits the payee account.

Of course, one way or the other, Google is going to be a presence in wireless. If Google wants a share of the mobile advertising market, and it clearly does, it needs control over more elements of the value chain.

Also, with wireless increasingly ubiquitous, and fourth generation wireless coming, Google has to get into position to extend beyond the PC experience. So Google seems to be working on an operating system and at least one handset.

It had made wireless enabling technology acquisitions, including Reqwireless (mobile apps: browser, email), Skia (graphics software), Android (OS)and Dodgeball (mobile social networking).

Google is developing mobile versions of existing apps such as its Calendar and AdSense apps. it is developing text message services such as real-time flight information, local search and payments.

Google might bid in the upcoming 700 MHz auction. it also is sealing deals with hardware makers to pre-install Google services on Samsung, Apple iPhone and LG devices and working with China Mobile and at&t--through the iPhone--to optimize the services for handset use.

Google also is supporting the Windows Mobile operating system. Google also is talking about a mobile virtual network in the U.K. market. And of course it has been experimenting with Wi-Fi networks, and is working with Sprint on that firm's WiMAX handsets.