Growth Anomalies: Trend or Blip?

It is way too early to determine an actual trend, but there have been some anomalies this quarter. Dish Network, Cogent Communications and Verizon experienced what appear to be "first ever" declines in traffic or customer additions. If market share shifts are all that is involved, that's one thing. If something else is going on, that might be more worrisome.

It's one thing for market share to shift among competitors in a given segment. It would be quite something else again if aggregate demand in a market is slowing. And that might be happening. It just is too early to say.

Cogent Communications, for example, experienced a first-time, three orders of magnitude shift in traffic growth for the months of April and May. Where Cogent traditionally has seen growth rates over the past five years of about 120 percent a quarter, it saw in the second quarter negative growth of one percent.

Cogent CEO Dave Schaeffer says the industry might now be at a point where traffic no longer can be driven by either broadband access penetration growth or even faster access speeds.

"We’ve seen a proliferation of broadband connectivity where we now have almost 80 percent broadband penetration in the Western world," says Dave Schaeffer, Cogent CEO. Line rates on those mass mile connections have increased to close to five megabits of download speed which is sufficient for most applications particularly video"

"You’re not going to get an uplift from more broadband penetration or greater download speed," he says. "What you need are more applications that consumers want to use more and more."

"Many applications that people point to could migrate to the Internet or increase and not materially move the needle because the base is large," he says. So what about video? Sure, video is driving traffic, he says.

There are applications that will drive growth and we’ve been pretty clear that this is really video we see that with a number of customers and we see that trend continuing. "But we have not seen the massive migration of video consumption over the Internet, he says.

"Today video is consumed about 4.5 minutes a day on the Internet and television, which is traditionally delivered by a broadcast satellite, cable or DVD, is consumed 4.5 hours a day," Schaeffer says. Until that viewership pattern changes, "we will see slower growth," he adds.

"The Internet is not going to decelerate, it’s not going to go away but it is going to be a bit lumpy in the way in which it reaccelerates," he says.

There were some anamolies in the data this quarter. It bears watching.