Apple TV is Not About the "TV"

Apple TV will succeed not as a "TV" or a "decoder" but only as a service offering the professional video people normally expect to see on a video subscription service, which makes Apple TV a tougher battle than creating a successful MP3 or smart phone ecosystem.

In creating the iTunes and iOS phone ecosystems, Apple faced a weakened music industry and a fragmented mobile service provider industry.

The video ecosystem is highly entrenched and used to dealing with potential disrupters. In addition, Apple faces formidable other viable contenders, including Amazon, Google and Microsoft, Bloomberg argues. But winning will require extensive licensing agreements with content owners and video distributors who are historically suspicious of interlopers that threaten to undermine the control content owners now exercise in the ecosystem. 

Without access to large amounts of that content, any effort to "change," "reinvent" or "disrupt" TV is destined to fail.

Cable and media companies are concerned that a better-designed Apple product will undermine their business model, says Walter Price, an investor with RCM Capital Management. 

“It’s a tough problem because the cable companies and media companies are not very enthusiastic about the prospect of Apple creating a better user interface,” said Price.