Text messaging might be worth about $140 billion annually over the next three years for mobile service providers. But use of over the top messaging apps is growing. On the other hand, that doesn't mean the revenue earned by messaging app providers is anywhere close to that of text messaging.
The analogy likely will be the impact of Skype on international long distance revenue.
Skype displaces some amount of international long distance revenue. But it displaces a huge amount of usage.
In other words, even as Skype is a substitute for much international long distance, Skype doesn't just take share. Skype essentially destroys the international long distance market, exchanging usage pennies for former usage dollars.
Usage is not revenue, for voice or messaging.
BII
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