Users Now Want an Order of Magnitude More Speed

User expectations matter in virtually all markets. At any point in time, there is a bundle of values that constitute the minimum acceptable offer for any product. The obvious example is all the component parts and features of an automobile that are essential as part of the basic product. 

The same is true for end user expectations of what constitutes a minimum acceptable level of broadband access service. Back in 2008, policymakers routinely spoke of 2 Mbps as a minimum threshold. 


There is a reason. Historically, "broadband" was defined as any speed at or above 2.5 Mbps. These days, user expectations outstrip the original industry definitions. 

A new poll by thinkbroadband of U.K. respondents finds that about a third think 20 Mbps is the minimum speed for any universal service requirement.

That is an order of magnitude increase over the 2008 levels of expectation that were commonly cited by policymakers as a floor. But it appears policymakers might already have underestimated expectations by close to an order of magnitude. 

That is why it is dangerous for ISPs to assume too much about what customers want, and how fast expectations can change.

That, in fact, is precisely what Google Fiber intends to achieve: a disruptive increase in end user expectations about what a minimally acceptable offer is, in the area of Internet access. 

There are huge implications for ISP investment decisions. There are equally huge implications for the future roles of various types of networks. The point is that end user and customer expectations apparently are highly elastic. 

Elastic expectations mean ISPs must be prepared not just for higher speeds, but rapidly-changing end user expectations as well.