Monday, May 13, 2013

Predictions of Mobile Data Growth Cut in Half

Most forecasts of mobile data consumption over the last couple of years until 2012 were consistent in the prediction that bandwidth demand would grow between 25 times to 26 times over roughly a five year period.

But the latest estimate by Cisco suggests growth of something like 13 times over the next five years. The revisions are not unusual. It frequently has been the case that linear extrapolations have suggested bandwidth growth more robust than eventually developed.

One might assume that is typical of any growth rate, for any product, as adoption matures. One might also assume there are changes in both supplier and end user behavior, though, that change the demand curve over time.

Suppliers learn to promote offload of mobile data to the fixed networks, and users learn how to do that on a consistent basis.

A 2010 view:


A 20
11 view:
A 2012 view:

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