Highly Non-Linear Phenomena Mean We Tend to "Fight the Last War"

The problem with non-linear phenomena is that it is hard for the human mind to process. In all likelihood, many parts of the United States, for example, already have passed the peak rate of Coronavirus infection. Assuming all our social distancing works, the falloff should be as dramatic as the uptake. 

Ironically, just at the point where people and businesses are moving to mandate use of masks, we arguably need them less than we would have, earlier in the epidemic. Fast-moving, non-linear processes do that to us. Much as generals always plan to “fight the last war,” our responses to the pandemic seemingly lag the state of reality. 

source: University of Washington

To put it in personal terms, because of the hypothesized incubation period, and because of the social distancing most of us have followed, the risk of new infection actually now is quite low. That does not mean my own social distancing ends, or lets up. That does not mean I stop disinfecting. It simply is to say that the period of greatest danger has likely passed, now followed by a period of rapidly-decreasing risk. So instead of projecting the present state into the future, as though it were unending, I actually need to start thinking practically about the small steps back to normality, and what precautions are prudent even longer term, keeping in mind the highly non-linear nature of the threat. It does not make sense to operate post-epidemic as I did at the peak of the epidemic. The better issue is what practices will continue, virtually indefinitely, and at what level. Hand washing and use of sanitizing wipes likely are permanent.

Avoiding large crowds, when possible, likely will continue for some time. The more immediate issue is when to recommence travel by airplane. At what point is that an acceptable risk?

Most likely, we all are going to overshoot, and we delayed taking our most-aggressive action at the onset. We will persist in taking precautions that actually are out of proportion to the degree of actual threat. Non-linear and fast-changing circumstances will do that.