Will 5G Disrupt the Video Subscription Business?

One often hears it said that 5G has potential to affect the video entertainment business. What never seems to be as clear is how that could happen, and where the new sources of value are that could drive the trend. Quibi has one answer, namely mobile-optimized short-form content.

The suggestion is that subscription mobile video services could emerge that are delivered exclusively using the 5G network, much as cable TV is delivered using the hybrid fiber coax network. That logically applies most immediately to linear content formats, as the whole premise of any on-demand over-the-top subscription is that the access network really does not matter. 

The thinking seems to be that 5G enables mobile-centric video subscriptions that could, in some cases, displace traditional linear formats such as cable TV, satellite TV or over the air broadcasting. 

Some might suggest artificial reality and virtual reality could be additional angles, though many might also suggest this is more likely to shape video games than entertainment video in the near term. 

Many sort of vaguely say mobility, internet access and video could be disrupted, but are not too specific about those changes. 

Sometimes the threat is fixed wireless competition for cable modem services, which might affect cable operators, but not directly cable operator video revenues. 

Yet others might suggest it is the ability to use 5G networks to cast content from mobiles to TV and other screens, which is not so much a format change as a delivery change. 

The point is that it remains somewhat unclear at the moment how big 5G-delivered video services might become. Mobile-optimized services (aspect ratio and short form, for example) are one angle. Bundled linear or on-demand subscriptions (5G access plus the app) are another angle. New formats using AR or VR and displayed on the mobile or some other device provide another avenue. 

As a practical matter, much of the early activity is likely to involve ways to use the 5G network as the access pipe, instead of using some cabled network. Quibi seems to be among the earliest efforts to create mobile-optimized content. But most linear or on-demand approaches are mostly going to use 5G as an alternate access pipe.