It is easy enough to visualize how the economic shutdown caused by stay-at-home policies has affected consumer spending. It also is possible to suggest that once the pandemic has passed, spending patterns will start to revert towards the pre-pandemic pattern, if the rate of change is difficult to predict.
If mobility spending (devices, primarily) has been hit by retail shutdowns, there will be pent-up demand, as phones do not stop breaking and batteries do not stop losing the ability to hold a charge. There will be a snap back of some volume, as deferred purchases cannot be avoided.
Airline travel, movie attendance, cruise trips, fitness club attendance, travel in general and retail purchases will revert to pre-pandemic levels, over some period of time. Just as certainly, categories of spending that had increased dramatically will tend to revert towards mean as well.
That does not mean complete recovery to prior trends immediately, simply that over a year to a few years, mean reversion will reassert itself.
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