Though Automation is a Given, Business Model Disruption is Big AI Upside

One frequently hears that artificial intelligence is going to change work, jobs and productivity by  automating tasks, enhancing efficiency, and providing predictive insights not feasible at low cost in the past. And all that is likely to happen. 

Study Title	Date	Publisher	Key Conclusions
How Will AI Affect Jobs	2024	Goldman Sachs	AI could replace the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs, but may also create new jobs and boost productivity.
AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let's Make Sure It Benefits Humanity.	2024	International Monetary Fund (IMF)	AI could impact 60% of jobs in advanced economies, with half potentially benefiting and the other half facing lower demand or displacement.
Which U.S. Workers Are More Exposed to AI on Their Jobs?	2023	Pew Research Center	Higher-paying, white-collar jobs are more likely to be exposed to AI, but the impact on job loss or gain is uncertain.
Why there will be plenty of jobs in the future - even with AI	2024	World Economic Forum	While AI may eliminate some jobs, it could also create new ones and increase productivity, leading to overall job growth.
The Impact of AI on Jobs	2019	UK Government (PwC analysis)	AI will likely shift job demand, creating roles in healthcare, IT, and research while reducing positions in administration and customer support. Regional and skill-level impacts vary significantly.
Artificial Intelligence and Jobs: No Signs of Slowing Labour Demand	2023	OECD	AI adoption is increasing demand for specialized skills and roles, without causing overall job losses yet. Task automation drives shifts in job nature rather than outright displacement.
The Impacts of Artificial Intelligence on Jobs	2017	Emerald Publishing	AI will automate both routine and nonroutine tasks, emphasizing human-robot collaboration. Skill transformations and enhanced adaptability will be key.
Future Jobs: AI's Impact on Manufacturing	2022	Springer	In China, AI in manufacturing reduced repetitive tasks but promoted job creation in skilled areas, aligning with a shift toward higher productivity.

Perhaps even greater disruption could happen if AI enables a big shift in revenue models. For example, how did the internet affect most content businesses?

Traditional newspapers and magazines saw steep declines in print ad revenue as readers--and advertising revenue--migrated online. Sure, one might argue that a shift to virtual rather than physical distribution--in some cases--led to lower production costs. 

But the biggest change was a shift from “essentially non-targeted advertising to “targeted” advertising venues, with a higher ability to specify audience on a wider range of behavioral characteristics. And that was a huge negative for legacy media. 

Also, online content aggregators and independent publishers have intensified competition for attention and audiences​, away from legacy media. 

The music industry experienced a collapse of physical media sales, which attacked the revenue which provided 85 percent to 90 percent of total revenue.

In video and film, linear formats suffered as on-demand formats grew. So revenue shifted from legacy intermediaries (TV broadcasters, cable TV services and linear networks) to  direct-to-consumer alternatives. 

And the video industry also was affected by the shift away from physical media sales. Global physical home entertainment revenue fell from $25 billion in 2004 to $5 billion by 2020, according to the OECD. 

So far, it is unclear whether--or how--AI could similarly disrupt revenue models in various industries. But that potentially will have a bigger impact than any efficiency-related AI gains.