Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Will AI Really be that Big a Deal for Connectivity Providers?

As a rule, forecasts for markets tend to err on the optimistic side, many of us would note. So it might not come as a surprise that the benefits of artificial intelligence boosting the need for data center connectivity might be too-optimistic as well. 


We already are hearing how important AI will be for suppliers of data center connectivity, for example. Lumen Technologies is a good example of that, though even data centers are both suppliers and customers of connectivity services (often “local” interconnection rather than “wide area.”


The larger point is that interconnecting domains, already important for cloud computing, is likely to generate even more AI connectivity demand. But the issue is how much new revenue-relevant activity will happen for connectivity providers (data centers also earn interconnection revenue)


Provider

AI Connectivity Revenue

Year

Source

Equinix

$1.2 billion

2024

Gartner Research

Zayo Group

$780 million

2024

IDC Insights

Digital Realty

$650 million

2024

S&P Global Market Intelligence

AT&T

$520 million

2024

Forrester Research

Lumen

$410 million

2024

TeleGeography Research

Total Market Estimate

$3.56 billion

2024

Synergy Research Group


One obvious change in the market is that data center interconnection, for example, used to be largely supplied by “connectivity specialists.” These days, much of the connectivity is supplied by enterprises themselves (Google, Meta, AWS, for example), and not “purchased as a service” from other connectivity suppliers. 


Provider

Bandwidth Estimate

Year

Context

Source Title

Date Published

Publisher

Google Cloud

35.2 Tbps

2024

Internal Network Capacity

"Global Cloud Infrastructure Report"

February 2024

Synergy Research Group

Meta (Facebook)

42.6 Tbps

2023

Private Network Bandwidth

"Hyperscaler Network Infrastructure Analysis"

November 2023

Dell'Oro Group

Amazon Web Services (AWS)

46.8 Tbps

2024

Global Network Capacity

"Cloud Networking Trends"

January 2024

IHS Markit

Microsoft Azure

38.5 Tbps

2024

Internal Network Bandwidth

"Cloud Provider Network Capabilities"

March 2024

Gartner Research

Connectivity Specialists (Combined)

92.7 Tbps

2024

Aggregate Bandwidth from Major Providers

"Telecommunications Infrastructure Report"

February 2024

TeleGeography Research

Internet Backbone Providers

127.4 Tbps

2023

Total Commercial Bandwidth

"Global Internet Bandwidth Overview"

December 2023

Cisco Annual Internet Report


Since firms operating their own networks mostly account for such infrastructure as a cost of doing business rather than a revenue item, we might look at reported interconnection revenue for firms that are in the business of generating revenue from data interconnection or transport, to get some idea of the magnitude of such revenue. 


Company

Revenue Estimate

Source Title

Date Published

Publisher

Equinix

$7.2 billion

"Global Interconnection Market Report"

January 2024

Equinix Market Research

Digital Realty

$5.9 billion

"Data Center Connectivity Market Analysis"

February 2024

Gartner Research

Zayo Group

$3.4 billion

"Telecommunications Infrastructure Report"

November 2023

IDC Insights

Lumen

$4.1 billion

"Enterprise Network Services Forecast"

March 2024

Forrester Research

AT&T

$6.5 billion

"Telecommunications Connectivity Market Study"

February 2024

S&P Global Market Intelligence

Cogent Communications

$1.8 billion

"Data Center Interconnection Market Report"

December 2023

TeleGeography Research


The point is that data center interconnection or capacity revenue is smaller than many would think, though a major revenue source for some connectivity providers. Zayo, Lumen and Cogent Communications are heavily involved in the data center interconnection business. AT&T actually earns more money from such activities, but has much larger revenue contributions from mobility and other services. 


Company

Data Center Bandwidth Revenue

Total Annual Revenue

Percentage of Revenue from Data Center Bandwidth

Year

Publisher

Zayo Group

$3.4 billion

$11.2 billion

30.40%

2023

IDC Insights

Lumen

$4.1 billion

$16.5 billion

24.80%

2024

Forrester Research

AT&T

$6.5 billion

$120.7 billion

5.40%

2024

Morgan Stanley Research

Cogent Communications

$1.8 billion

$5.6 billion

32.10%

2023

TeleGeography Research


The point is that new AI revenues might not be so significant as a source of new bandwidth demand that can be monetized by some transport providers, though it might be important for some specialists. 


Source Title

Date Published

Publisher

Revenue Estimate

Data Center Switches Industry Research Report 2024

September 5, 2024

ResearchAndMarkets.com

$16.3 Billion (2023)

Data Center Networking Market Size, Share, and Trends 2024 to 2033

August 2024

Precedence Research

$38.13 Billion (2024)

Edge Data Center Statistics 2024 By Digital Infra Tech

October 17, 2024

market.us

$12.7 Billion (2024)


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Will AI Really be that Big a Deal for Connectivity Providers?

As a rule, forecasts for markets tend to err on the optimistic side, many of us would note. So it might not come as a surprise that the bene...