BlackBerry Enterprise Share Will Drop from 52% to 36% in 2012

BlackBerry Market Share Dropping Fast

The BlackBerry may not be dead, but it's dying, some now say. New research from Enterprise Management Associates likewise indicates that 30 percent of BlackBerry users in companies with more than 10,000 users will move to a different mobile platform in 2012.

That would move Research in Motion's standing in large enterprise accounts into that of a minority operating system. Today, 52 percent of users in such organizations "actively" use a BlackBerry for work purposes, EMA reports; a 30 percent reduction would bring that total to 36 percent.

"We expected to see some market share loss by RIM, but these results were far more dramatic than we could have anticipated," reports Steve Brasen, EMA's managing research director. They come on the heels of a larger defection: Users of all stripes are moving away from BlackBerry, as its continually declining market share shows.

Even the BlackBerry faithful are abandoning RIM

Bearish View of The Smart Phone Business

Here's a bearish view about the smart phone business. Microsoft and Apple are extracting royalty payments from Google Android suppliers, squeezing their margins.

Apple missed targets for iPhone sales and sales of Research In Motion’s BlackBerry have "collapsed," not to mention the recent multi-day global outage.

Analysts may argue that the rise of products like powerful tablets have hurt smart phone sales. Some of us think that is partly true. Tablet sales have grown much faster than did sales of Apple iPhones or iPods.

So attention now has been diverted to tablets, to some extent. But Mary Meeker, Kleiner Perkins Caufield Byers partner doesn't appear to share the pessimism.

But lower-cost smart phones now are about to pour onto the market, and the high penetration of mobiles means there still is a huge replacement market.

The Smartphone Business Loses Its Luster

RIM Halts BlackBerry Playbook Production, Some Say

 Has Research in Motion stopped making its BlackBerry Playbook tablet computer? Portfolio.com reports that Research in Motion has stopped manufacturing the tablets and is considering exiting the tablet market altogether.


"We believe RIM has stopped production of its PlayBook and is actively considering exiting the tablet market," Collins Stewart tech analyst John Vinh said in a report. The chip analyst said manufacturer Quanta had laid off a "significant number" of workers from a factory that produces RIM's PlayBook. RIM denies report


RIM dismissed reports that its PlayBook was in danger of extinction as "pure fiction." RIM spokeswoman Jamie Ernst said, "RIM remains highly committed to the tablet market."

RIM may have halted BlackBerry Playbook production

RIM Share, Earnings Fall in 2nd Quarter

So there has to be concern now that RIM, a star in the mobile handset space, might suffer a similar fate, as hard as that is to imagine, though it once might have seemed unthinkable.

Canadians, more than other people, are going to worry about what is happening at Research in Motion, for reasons of national pride and influence in the broader telecom business. Nortel once was the biggest company in Canada, by valuation, as I recall, and no longer exists.

For the first time in over a decade, shipments of BlackBerry smart phones have declined, year-over-year, RIM second quarter results show. RIM also said it shipped fewer than half of its PlayBook tablets than it did in the previous quarter. Revenue declines

Revenue was down 15 percent to $4.2 billion from last quarter’s $4.9 billion, which, to be fair, is what it predicted it would make. But it’s on the lower end of the scale. Last quarter, RIM estimated that its second quarter revenue would be between $4.2 and $4.8 billion.

Revenue was down 10 percent from the $4.6 billion RIM made in the same quarter last year. RIM smart phone, tablet shipments decline (Wall Street Journal subscription required)

Although BlackBerrys have dominated the corporate smartphone market, their popularity in the consumer market has been short-lived. U.S. consumers have moved on to phones with big touchscreens like Apple's iPhone and various models that run Google Inc.'s Android operating system.

"They are just not selling. They are not competitive," said Peter Misek, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. "They are getting really hit hard by Android phones."

PlayBook Runs Android Apps

Apparently the RIM PlayBook has an emulator that allows it to run Android apps. A wise move, one might suggest.

RIM Goes Multi-Platform, Losing Smartphone Battle?

In a move almost certain to be interpreted as a sign enterprises are migrating to iOS and Android devices and away from their past heavy reliance on BlackBerry devices, Research In Motion announced plans for a multi-platform BlackBerry Enterprise Solution for managing and securing mobile devices for enterprises and government organizations.

The solution is expected to incorporate secure device management for Android and iOS based devices and tablets, all managed from a single web-based console, RIM says.

Some might try to spin the announcement as an extension of BES features to other key enteprise operating systems, and that it is. But others will say the move suggests RIM already can see that enterprises and larger organizations are moving away from BlackBerry and towards Apple and Android devices.

In fact, some might already be ready to predict the possibility that RIM might someday be a provider of server solutions, not handsets.

RIM's business has traditionally been driven by IT departments at enterprises, as BES gave companies an easy way to do things like activate devices, manage passwords, push out software updates, and wipe lost or stolen devices clean.

That might be the future of the business, not handsets.

read more here

Android Market Eclipses Apple App Store for Free Apps

The Google Android Market eclipsed the Apple App Store for iPhone in terms of free applications and now has 134,342 free applications, while the Apple App Store iPhone has 121,845 free applications, Distimo reports.

If all application stores maintain their current growth pace, approximately five months from now Google Android Market will be the largest store in terms of number of applications followed by the Apple App Store for iPhone and iPad, Windows Phone 7 Marketplace, BlackBerry App World and Nokia Ovi Store.

The rise of Windows Phone 7 and the relative decline of BlackBerry and Nokia as leaders in the smartphone category might have something to do with the state of the respective app stores. Some observers would say that the Microsoft deal with Nokia, which has Nokia essentially abandoning Symbian for Windows Phone 7, will vault Microsoft into position number three in the smart phone OS market, eclipsing RIM.

Looking at history, one would be hard pressed to imagine why RIM would remain a force, or perhaps even viable, in a market so dominated by the iPhone and Android, with Microsoft claiming the third spot, in terms of share. There is not much precedent for a viable "number four or five" provider in the mobile OS ecosystem. So as shocking as the assertion might be, it appears RIM's best days, even its existence as an independent company, are at grave risk.

The Windows Phone 7 Marketplace will also be larger than the Nokia Ovi Store and BlackBerry App World prior to the Windows Phone 7 Marketplace being available for even a full year, Distimo says.
One year after launching the iPad, Apple will be confronted with its first serious competition as both BlackBerry and Google enter the emerging tablet market.

Apple has already seized momentum and grown the App Store for iPad in the first year to 75,755 applications developed by 21,975 publishers. Daily downloads in the "Top 100 Overall" paid and free applications for iPad combined exceed 500,000, while the daily revenue in the Top 100 paid is approximately $400,000 excluding in-app purchases.

http://www.distimo.com/publications/

U.S. Smartphone Market is a Bit Like Fashion

Smartphones and other mobile devices are a bit like fashion, introducing a great deal of volatility.

According to The Nielsen Company’s monthly surveys of U.S. mobile consumers from July 2010 to September 2010, consumers planning on getting a new smartphone had a very clear preference: A third (33 percent) wanted an Apple iPhone.

Slightly more than a quarter (26 percent) said they desired a device with the Google Android operating system. And 13 percent said they wanted a RIM Blackberry.

Those same surveys for January 2011 to March 2011 show significant changes. According to the latest figures, 31 percent of consumers who plan to get a new smartphone indicated Android was now their preferred OS. Apple’s iOS has slipped slightly in popularity to 30 percent and RIM Blackberry is down to 11 percent. Almost 20 percent of consumers are unsure of what to choose next.

U.S. Smartphone Market: Who’s the Most Wanted? | Nielsen Wire

Apple Leads Smartphone Installed Base, Android Leads in Share

According to November data from The Nielsen Company, the popularity of the Android operating system among those who purchased a smartphone in the last six months (40 percent) makes it the leading OS in terms of market share, defined as new sales. Apple still leads in terms of installed base.

But despite its surge among recent acquirers, when it comes to overall installed base of users, Android OS (25.8 percent) is still behind Apple iOS (28.6 percent). RIM Blackberry’s position is less clear: Its share (26.1 percent) puts it within the margin of error of both Apple iOS and Android.

Apple Leads Smartphone Race, while Android Attracts Most Recent Customers | Nielsen Wire

The NPD Group: Android Extends its Smartphone Market Share in the Third Quarter of 2010

The Android smartphone operating system significantly grew its lead in the U.S. consumer smartphone market in the third quarter of 2010, according to The NPD Group.

Android’s OS was installed in 44 percent of all smartphones purchased in the third quarter, an increase of 11 percentage points since the second quarter.

The Apple iOS held relatively steady versus last quarter, rising one percentage point to 23 percent. The RIM OS fell to third position, declining from 28 percent to 22 percent.

The NPD Group: Android Extends its Smartphone Market Share in the Third Quarter of 2010

iPhone Passes Blackberry in Global Market Share

Apple has passed Research In Motion in global phone sales. During this year's third quarter, 15.4 million iPhones were shipped globally compared to only 12.4 million Blackberries, the researchers at Strategy Analytics says.

With the shipments, Apple grabbed a 15.4 percent share of the market during the period, while RIM finished well behind with a 12.3 percent share. Nokia still leads with 26.5 percent of the worldwide market.

A major factor contributing to RIM's slipping numbers is its 'limited presence in the high-growth touchscreen segment,' according to Strategy Analytics.

iPhone Passes Blackberry in Global Shipments - PCWorld

Android OS Now Number One for Sales Share

Android now appears to be the top operating system for new buyers of smartphones, according to Nielsen.

HTC Incredible Users Significant Wi-Fi Hotspot Users

Though Apple devices continue to dominate the top 10 devices using public Wi-Fi hotspots, the HTC Droid Incredible has become the most popular Android device, followed closely by the Motorola Droid.

Both the Android and RIM platforms increased 1.2 and .07 percent respectively, while Apple's platform declined 2.3 percent in the second quarter of 2010.

Android might or might not be viewed as representing the most-successful class of "iPhone killer" devices. What seems clear is that it is seen by many users as a workable alternative, and is used in much the same way as an iPhone is.

Media Center - JiWire.com

Signs of Trouble in the Mobile Handset Business?

Trouble might be brewing in the mobile handset business, if one looks at profits in the industry. Apple is the outstanding winner, and Research in Motion isn't immediately troubled, either.

But Apple's growth seems to have come at the expense of other providers, and doesn't seem to have grown the market.

Industry profits dipped to a bit under $4 billion at the trough of the recession, and have recovered to nearly $6 billion in the holiday quarter last year. But the aggregate data hides a stunning shift of market share.

Motorola and Sony Ericsson had been losing money and only recently have reached breakeven status. LG turned negative in the second quarter of 2010.

Samsung has been consistently profitable and has gained market share.

But Apple and RIM now ern about 65 percent of all profits in the business.

asymco

Is Mobile Phone Market Bifurcating?

One feature of market structure in many highly-competitive markets is a bifurcated distribution of firms, measured by size (revenue, typically).

What one has tended to see in retailing and communications is a concentration of firms that are very large, a squeezing of the number of phones in the middle ranges, and then relatively lots of firms that are small.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank think that is happening in the mobile phone business as well, favoring devices that are high-end smartphones or low end devices.

In part, the new competitive pressures are the result of Apple's entry into the market, Deutsche Bank says.

"Hardware has become a commodity with heavy pressure on margins" while "software is the only way for vendors to differentiate their products." At the moment, that is favoring Apple and Android. 

The result is that the best software platforms at the high end are taking share from smartphones. The other trend is that "feature phones" in the middle are losing share to smartphones. The result might be called a barbell, with high volumes at the low end of the market and high end, but little in between.

One might also note a Pareto distribution, where a few market-leading firms are able to get the majority of share or profits. Deutsche Bank analysts note that Apple and RIM sell 10 percent of devices, but get 66 percent of the profit.

Apple and RIM Still Sucking Profits from the Smartphone Industry

Android Making a Breakout Move?

Android devices collectively have done something significant in the smartphone market. Since March 2010, Research in Motion market share has dropped and Android share has exploded.

As RIM supports a family of devices, sold across carriers, as does Android, the comparison is instructive.

Whatever else the results may be, they indicate a fairly-dramatic shift in end user demand from QWERTY keyboards and email centric behavior to touch screens and web activity.

RIM Execs Deny Apple Test Data on Signal Fade

The Research in Motion "BlackBerry Bold" device, as tested by Apple, appears to show the same signal fade issues as the Apple iPhone 4 when held in certain ways. RIM executives deny they have a signal reception problem.

watch the demo: signal fades

"Apple's claims about RIM products appear to be deliberate attempts to distort the public's understanding of an antenna design issue and to deflect attention from Apple's difficult situation," say Mike Lazaridis and Jim Balsillie, RIM Co-CEOs. They don't specifically refute the Apple test data, though, which is odd.

They simply say "RIM is a global leader in antenna design" and say RIM "has avoided designs like the one Apple used in the iPhone 4 and instead has used innovative designs which reduce the risk for dropped calls, especially in areas of lower coverage."

Again, that doesn't specifically address the Apple test data.

link

HTC Seems to Be Taking Motorola Android Share

The latest survey of smartphone demand by Changewave Research suggests HTC is taking Android device share from Motorola.

The change seems to have occurred about March 2010.

BlackBerry Satisfaction Plummets, Changewave Finds

Though end user satisfaction with the iPhone has remained fairly constant over the last year, Research in Motion BlackBerry devices seem to have suffered a dramatic decline in satisfaction, dropping from a high of about 55 percent in January 2008 to June 2010, Changewave Research reports.

A reasonable observer would suggest this portends some trouble for RIM, the reception issues with the new iPhone 4 notwithstanding.

Apple iPhone Demand Seen Exploding

ChangeWave's latest smart phone survey of 4,028 consumers shows an "explosive transformation" occurring in consumer demand, suggesting some major new mobile handset winners and losers for second half 2010.

Changewave says its latest survey shows the strongest interest in smartphones ever recorded in a Changewave survey. But there's a significant change within that demand pattern: Apple and HTC devices are getting strong demand at the expense of Motorola and Research in Motion.

The future buying plans suggest coming huge moves upward for Apple and HTC, with a whopping 52 percent of respondents who plan to buy a smart phone in the next 90 days saying they'll get an Apple iPhone.

It also appears that Android demand has shifted to HTC and away from Motorola.

Explosive Changes in Consumer Demand Shake Up Smart Phone Industry