U.S. Smartphone Market is a Bit Like Fashion

Smartphones and other mobile devices are a bit like fashion, introducing a great deal of volatility.

According to The Nielsen Company’s monthly surveys of U.S. mobile consumers from July 2010 to September 2010, consumers planning on getting a new smartphone had a very clear preference: A third (33 percent) wanted an Apple iPhone.

Slightly more than a quarter (26 percent) said they desired a device with the Google Android operating system. And 13 percent said they wanted a RIM Blackberry.

Those same surveys for January 2011 to March 2011 show significant changes. According to the latest figures, 31 percent of consumers who plan to get a new smartphone indicated Android was now their preferred OS. Apple’s iOS has slipped slightly in popularity to 30 percent and RIM Blackberry is down to 11 percent. Almost 20 percent of consumers are unsure of what to choose next.

U.S. Smartphone Market: Who’s the Most Wanted? | Nielsen Wire

Securities Analyst Evaluation of Windows Phone 7

Financial analyst reaction to Microsoft Windows Phone 7 operating system, as reported by the Wall Street Journal:

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: With WP7, [Microsoft] intends to gain customer mindshare which it hopes to translate to higher unit sales and smartphone OS market share. The momentum it can garner in the mobile space remains to be seen but MSFT appears to have a good start.

Morgan Stanley: While there is risk that MSFT is too late to the market, with positive reviews and ~$400M in marketing spend, MSFT may be able to curb or reverse share losses next year, which would be positive for the stock given extremely low expectations.

Wells Fargo Securities: While it has become fairly fashionable to kick MSFT, we think it is fair to say that the new phone looks pretty good. In our view, this isn’t going to move the market share needle in the short term and the absence of Sprint and Verizon at the launch is notable (2011 launches). We are the first to admit that Microsoft is fighting for 3rd place not 1st or even 2nd at this point, but we believe this is a key step toward rebuilding confidence in their ability to innovate in mobile and eventually restoring their earnings multiple.

Cross Research: We think the advantage that the company has is its ability to integrate deeply into its own popular apps like Word, Excel and Powerpoint, but also with Outlook email and calendar content.

Barclays Capital: While a credible offering, we believe Microsoft faces uphill climb in quest for market share given its late entrance to an already crowded field, an already weak reputation in the smartphone market and a lack of developer and application support which may limit consumer acceptance, at least initially.

Windows Mobile 7 Tries to Make Phone Use Easier

In a bit of a twist, it is Microsoft that now wants to offer consumers an "easy to use" smartphone, much as Apple once promised an "easy to use" PC.

Apple iPhone and Android Top OS Satisfaction Ratings

When it comes to satisfaction levels, the Apple iPhone continues to lead all other major cell phone manufacturers, with 74 percent of owners reporting they're "very satisfied" with their iPhone, according to ChangeWave Research.

But 72 percent of Android users also say they are "very satisfied." There's a big gap to the number-three OS, where 41 percent of Research in Motion users say they are very satisfied with the operating system.

It is worth noting that the "very satisfied" rankings for the Palm OS primarily reflect experience with the older OS, not the new  Web OS (Pre, for example). About 58 percent of Pre users say they are very satisfied, while for smart phones using the older Palm OS it was just 29 percent.

iPhone Mobile Browsing Tops Windows Mobile

In December, it appears that the iPhone OS was used by twice as many users as Windows Mobile, according to Net Applications data for that month. Considering the vastly greater number of Windows Mobile devices in use, that's something.

Sprint to Sell Touch

Sprint Nextel will sell the Touch by HTC, a smart phone using touch screen technology, starting Nov. 4 in the U.S. market. Sprint will sell the device for $250 with a two-year contract. Sprint joins Verizon and at&t in providing high-end touch-screen devices.

The iPhone, which launched this summer, is exclusive to at&t. Verizon Wireless is introducing the LG Voyager in time for Thanksgiving.

The HTC Touch lacks a keyboard, but it still has a stylus. The Touch runs Microsoft Corp.'s Windows Mobile 6 software.

So why do we care about new phones? Simply because most of the innovation in the communications space is coming in the mobile and Web domains. So it makes sense that the most innovation could come in the mobile Web space.

SlingPlayer for Symbian Phones

The SlingPlayer for Symbian S60 phones is out of beta and now available for sale. The software allows a selection of Nokia phones to stream television from any Slingbox.

SlingPlayer works on U.S. models of the Nokia E65, N75, and N95. It works on in the Nokia E65, N73, and 6120 handsets elsewhere. It already is available for Windows Mobile devices.

The Symbian software will cost $30 in the U.S., C$35 in Canada, and £20 in the U.K. market. The fee might be waived for U.S. Nokia N95 buyers. A free 30-day trial version will be made available. The Symbian SlingPlayer joins versions already available for Windows Mobile and Palm OS products, as well as Windows and Mac computers.

Still missing from the list of supported devices is the BlackBerry, although that undoubtedly is in the works. Of course, one sort of questions why, in a rhetorical I sense. Obviously Sling would want access to the large installed base of BlackBerries.

The issue is that the BlackBerry really isn't a very good media player, though it excels for email, obviously. If it is me, I would use the Nokia N95, which is a killer media player. I wouldn't use the N95 as my email device, however.

The point is that we are getting to a time when mobile devices really have to be optimized for one or just a couple applications: no single device is the best at all functions. To my way of thinking N95 is an iPhone, even without the touchscreen interface. Neither device makes any sense to me as an email device.

I was kicking around ideas with Stan Little over at Glenayre recently and he is experimenting with the notion that a person's identity increasingly can be tied to a single device. And he's right about identity. Whether that identity can effectively be broadened to encompass all the really important parts of a user's "life" roles, preferences, moods and tastes is more debatable. Stan is more optimistic about that than I am at the moment.

My issue with the single device is not, I suppose, so much with the "identity" so much as with the ability of any single device to competently handle all the tasks. I just can't see the email/work function and the media player function being something a single device does at a "best of breed" level in both scores. And it isn't so clear that any device optimized for either email or media playing is going to work as the absolute best "phone." The BlackBerry is adequate as a phone. But it isn't great.

Maybe we need a more robust version of a Subscriber Information Module so we can port the identities to whichever device makes the most sense "at the moment."