Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Securities Analyst Evaluation of Windows Phone 7


Financial analyst reaction to Microsoft Windows Phone 7 operating system, as reported by the Wall Street Journal:

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: With WP7, [Microsoft] intends to gain customer mindshare which it hopes to translate to higher unit sales and smartphone OS market share. The momentum it can garner in the mobile space remains to be seen but MSFT appears to have a good start.

Morgan Stanley: While there is risk that MSFT is too late to the market, with positive reviews and ~$400M in marketing spend, MSFT may be able to curb or reverse share losses next year, which would be positive for the stock given extremely low expectations.

Wells Fargo Securities: While it has become fairly fashionable to kick MSFT, we think it is fair to say that the new phone looks pretty good. In our view, this isn’t going to move the market share needle in the short term and the absence of Sprint and Verizon at the launch is notable (2011 launches). We are the first to admit that Microsoft is fighting for 3rd place not 1st or even 2nd at this point, but we believe this is a key step toward rebuilding confidence in their ability to innovate in mobile and eventually restoring their earnings multiple.

Cross Research: We think the advantage that the company has is its ability to integrate deeply into its own popular apps like Word, Excel and Powerpoint, but also with Outlook email and calendar content.
Barclays Capital: While a credible offering, we believe Microsoft faces uphill climb in quest for market share given its late entrance to an already crowded field, an already weak reputation in the smartphone market and a lack of developer and application support which may limit consumer acceptance, at least initially.

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