Users Save $2 Billion Each Month by Using Opera?

Use of the Opera Mini browser, which compresses Web data by 90 percent, saves lots of bandwidth, and therefore costs for users of mobile broadband services who pay "by the byte."

Based on the costs of browsing the Web on a mobile phone (on a per MB basis), users in a representative sample of 10 countries save over $802 million per month, or over $9.6 billion per year, Opera says, though it is possible to question that estimate.

Of course, that estimate does not take into account pricing for users who have unlimited-use data plans, though. If you have a flat-rate plan, the compression makes no difference, cost-wise.

Using estimates from typical usage in its sample of 10 countries, Opera estimates that the global cost of browsing is 47 cents per MByte. Based on that figure and the amount of data transferred by Opera Mini users each month, we calculate that Opera Mini users around the world save over $2.2 billion per month, or over $27.4 billion per year.

One can quarrel with the savings estimates, though. Opera assumes a cost of $2 per megabyte for users in the United States. That works out to a cost of $2048 a month for use of 1 gigabyte worth of data. Most users quickly can figure out that they can benefit from an unlimited data plan costing $30 to $60 a month.

At $30 a month, a gigabyte nominally costs just three cents. Perhaps a better way to view the data is that if users purchased their mobile broadband bandwidth using the most-expensive a la carte plans, they might save the money Opera claims. In practice, most users can figure out they need to buy "wholesale rather than retail."

Opera: State of the Mobile Web, September 2010

Video Streaming Now Drives Global Bandwidth Demand

As you would expect, video streaming now is the fastest-growing source of mobile broadband bandwidth demand, Allot Communications reports.

Voice sessions created using the Internet now represent the second-fastest-growing source of bandwidth demand.

That isn't to say those apps consume much bandwidth, but rather than use of the application is growing fast.

Video Now Single-Largest Bandwidth Driver, Says Allot Communications

Video now constitutes about 35 percent of total global mobile device and network bandwidth, according to Allot Communications.

Web browsing consumes about 29 percent of bandwidth while file downloads represent about 16 percent of demand.

Peer-to-peer apps, which include video and file downloads, represents about 15 percent of mobile bandwidth demand.

VoIP and instant messaging account for about three percent of bandwidth demand.

None of those metrics represent revenue contributions, though.

Mobile Broadband Now 24% of All U.S. Consumer Connections

About 24 percent of all U.S. broadband consumer connections already are mobile, and in just six months in 2009, mobile broadband accounts in service grew 40 percent, the Federal Communications Commission reports.

Of 113 million broadband connections in service in the United States in mid-2009, about 35 million were mobile broadband connections, the Federal Communications Commission reports.

Compared to the beginning of 2009, when there were 25 million mobile broadband subscriptions in service, mobile broadband grew 40 percent in just six months.

There were 94 million residential connections in service at mid-year 2009, of which 71 million
were fixed-technology connections and 23 million were mobile wireless.

Mobile broadband connections are growing much faster than fixed connections are, but the ironic result is that average consumer broadband speeds might appear to be slower than they actually are, since in 2009 most mobile connections operated slower than most fixed-line connections.

That will change once fourth-generation networks become more widespread, and more consumers actually subscribe to 4G services. Right now, virtually all mobile broadband services operate at 3 Mbps or less. That should not be the case once 4G networks start to be used.

full report here

94% of U.S. Workers Stay Connected to Work While on Vacation

All but six percent of users polled by iPass say they stay connected, at least some of the time, to work, even when on vacation, a new survey by iPass has found.

Only 5.9 per cent of workers disconnect from the office while on leave, the study found. About 58 percent report they connect at least some days when on vacation. About 36 percent report they connect at least part of every day when they are on vacation.

For better or worse, most U.S. workers appear to be working at least some of the time when on vacation.

The majority of respondents (53.6 percent) never truly disconnect from technology when on vacation.  For the 46.4 percent of mobile employees that do on occasion disconnect, their reasons were mostly situational, such as being in a location with poor connectivity.

Even while on vacation, 94 percent of mobile employees connect to the Internet, and the majority connect for work, pointing out the crucial role mobile devices now play in work life, the added productivity firms and organizations are gaining, and also the importance business applications have played so far in driving smartphone and mobile broadband adoption using dongles or cards to connect PCs.

Slowing Mobile Broadband Uptake?

Mobile broadband services and revenues include several different revenue components. Data access for smartphones is one driver.

But so are broadband "dongles" and "cards" that allow users to use 3G or 4G networks with their PCs, notebooks, netbooks or tablets.

Then there are a growing range of uses for specialized sensor networks, e-book readers and other devices that might use mobile broadband access occasionally.

It appears dongle revenues continue to climb, but possibly at a slower rate compared to 2008, at least in some markets. Yankee Group researchers say growth is slowing in France, for example.


Comparing the second quarter of 2010 with the second quarter of  2009, growth rates were 6.5 percent and 22.4 percent respectively. "We see the same trend if we compare performance during the first half of 2010 and the second half of 2009," says Declan Lonergan, Yankee Group analyst.

Orange, Vodafone, Telecom Italia, TeliaSonera, Telekom Austria and KPN results showed the same trend.

During the first half of 2010, mobile broadband users increased by less than 12 percent. Even allowing for seasonal buying patterns, this compares unfavorably with a growth rate of 42 percent during the second half of 2009, Lonergan says.

Indian Operator Aims at Wireless Broadband Market

Infotel Broadband Services plans to use its 20-MHz worth of national wireless spectrum in India to make a dent in that country's roughly one-percent broadband services penetration. But the company will not be able to offer switched voice services, according to the terms of its license. The restriction means Infotel will offer a fairly focused data access service, with users able to use PC-to-PC calling services to other Infotel subscribers.

The restriction illustrates the foundational impact regulation has on business models. Some observers say Infotel can only get so big while it has no ability to offer full mobile voice, which would require that it acquire another firm able to do so (a 2G or 3G provider, for example).

Government officials note that 30 percent to 40 percent of  36 million fixed line connections in India are not capable of supporting broadband services.

read more about Infotel

read more about fixed broadband in India

Mobile Accounts for 17% of European Mobile Connections

Mobile broadband accounted for 17.3 percent of the total number of European broadband connections in Europe at the end of 2009, " according to a new research report from the analyst firm Berg Insight.

The North American market has so far evolved at a slower pace, with mobile broadband accounting for just 7.1 percent of the total number of connections, says Berg Insight.

The number of HSPA/LTE mobile broadband subscribers (connected PCs) grew by 71 percent year-on-year in 2009 to reach 25 million and is forecasted to continue to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 21.6 percent to 81 million by 2015.

Berg Insight

Mobile Growth Shifts to Content

Mobile revenue growth now is shifting to mobile broadband and data, as you would expect, with the saturation of basic voice connections.

The next wave of growth will come from commerce and content sales, PricewaterhouseCoopers now predicts.

Wireless Broadband Would Account for More than 1/2 of Losses Under Net Neutrality Rules

Network neutrality rules would reduce the growth rate of the broadband sector by around 15 percent per year, according to an analysis by the Brattle Group. The loss—$5 billion in 2011, growing to $100 billion by 2020—increases over time and represents a 2.5 percent smaller sector in 2011 and a 17.7 percent smaller sector by 2020.

Wireless broadband would bear much of the brunt of the reduction, as mobile broadband is expected to be the driving force for broadband overall starting about 2013, Brattle Group says. The share of revenue from mobile broadband lines grows over the period, overtaking revenue from wireline broadband lines by 2013. The business versus residential split is fixed at its 2008 proportions of 37 percent business and 63 percent residential.

Residential fixed lines continue to grow at eight percent per year rate until they reach 90 percent of households and thereafter grow at two percent per year. The business fixed lines grow at the same rate.

Mobile broadband is expected to be the source of most of the broadband growth over the next decade and consequently would bear the largest share of the economic burden of network neutrality regulations.

In 2008, mobile broadband lines accounted for only about a quarter of all broadband lines, but would likely account for more than half of the economic losses over the coming decade if the proposed network neutrality regulations are put into place.

Link to full analysis

Will 4G Adoption Mirror 3G?

Adoption of fourth-generation network services likely will miror adoption of 3G services in Europe, says Decaln Longeran, Yankee Group analyst, and that has to be seen as modestly good news, but not "great" news, as adoption will not be as fast as many will hope.

"Our assessment of the early days of 3G, from spectrum auctions through to the first one or two years of commercial services, tells us a lot about where 4G is today and where it’s heading," Lonergan says. The big danger is massive overpaying for spectrum, which happened with the 3G spectrum auctions.

"Overpaying for licenses will quickly destroy the 4G business case, just as it did for 3G in several countries, including the U.K. and Germany," says Lonergand. On the other hand, if bidders show reasonable restraint, they should be in a better position to the extent that the auctions will be dominated by incumbents, unlike the situation when 3G licenses were awarded.

There will be no new 4G contestants, Lonergan predicts.

Adoption will take longer than expected, he says. "Remember, it was a full five years after commercial launch before 3G handset ownership reached 6.5 percent penetration globally, and 4G will follow a similar path," he says.

The technology won’t sell itself, he says. Faster speeds will only provide so much incentive, and it is applications that could provide the bigger push to adoption.

Handsets matter more than most people think, as well. Early 3G players failed to understand the importance of quality and choice in their handset portfolios, Lonergan says. Prepaid plans might also be essential, as 3G adoption in Europe was severely hindered in the early stages due to limited availability of prepaid plans.

Coverage also matters less than most people think. Consumers don’t obsess about coverage, except in the places where they use their devices most. That might especially prove true where 3G service is available as a backup.

On the other hand, 4G is being deployed in different circumstances, where a reasonable base of mobile broadband customers exists, and new applications that take advantage of higher bandwidth and lower latency already are getting traction, ranging from video and social networking to mobile apps related to navigation and location.

The first commercial European 3G service was launched by Telenor in December 2001, with commercial 3G services launched in 2003 by 3 in the U.K. and Italy.

But it is worth remembering that 3G also promised major performance enhancements to existing mobile services, . new services, including video telephony, multimedia content and enhanced end user experience. Right now, 4G mostly promises "faster" broadband.

The issue is whether the shift from 1 Mbps to 3 Mbps, or 3 Mbps to 6 Mbps, represents so much a change in end user experience. One might argue the Apple iPhone or iPad represents something users find tangible, not the additional bandwidth.

One might argue that mobile Web access, like mobile email before it, and smartphones, are what is driving 3G adoption. Applied to 4G, will there be unique drivers, or will 4G simply be a 3G experience, albeit with more bandwidth?

In August 2005, for example, the Yankee Group predicted, at a time when 3G penetration in Western Europe was in the range of 0.5 to two percent, that by 2009, 3G penetration would reach 52.6 percent of the population. In reality, average 3G penetration in Western Europe was 27 percent as of December 2009.

The key takeaway from this comparison is that even 3G forecasts that were regarded as too conservative five years ago have proved to be too aggressive.

A new wireless technology will not in itself excite most consumers, no matter how amazingly super-fast its proponents claim it performs. Back in May of 2006, when 3G services had been actively promoted for at least two years in several European countries, Yankee Group conducted an end-user survey that suggested 29 percent of end users had no idea whether they had a 3G phone or not. About 27 percent of respondents claimed they owned a 3G phone. Of course, it is not always the case that a 3G phone uses a 3G connection, either.

In the U.S. market, matters are even more complicated, as various 3G platforms will be available nationwide by the end of 2010, and T-Mobile USA's network might actually operate faster than 4G networks, so even speed will not be a clear differentiator.

Handsets, on the other hand, could be more important. In the first 18 months after launch, Japan's DoCoMo failed to build any real momentum behind its 3G service, and 3G users accounted for well under one percent of the company’s total mobile customer base. Then DoCoMo moved aggressively on handsets, and penetration grew.

At least in the European market, prepaid service plans have been important. Prepaid was first introduced to Europe in 1995, and it was a major factor in the rapid growth in mobile services during the past 15 years, Lonergan notes. Mobile services penetration has now reached 130 percent of the population, and prepaid accounts for the majority of these connections, fully 54 percent at the end of 2009.

Back in the early days of 3G, most of the focus (misplaced, as we now understand) was on video telephony because this was one of the few services that 3G could support and 2.5G could not. It should therefore have been a 3G marketing manager’s dream, but it turned into something of a nightmare due to unreliable performance and largely apathetic consumers.

But the single biggest difference between 3G and 4G is the world of demand into which they were born. Smartphone penetration and use of mobile broadband applications clearly is different today than was the case when 3G first was being introduced.

Mobile broadband (the laptop/dongle version) is a good example. This service didn’t exist when 3G was introduced. Neither did the iPhone.

Consumers in 2010 understand the differences between a 2 Mbps, 7 Mbps and 20 Mbps connection. In 2001, most did not.

It took five years for 3G penetration to reach 6.5 percent of global mobile users. Our projections for 4G follow a similar curve: relatively slow adoption in the first three years, with a noticeable pickup in years four to five, says Lonergan.

Some possible areas of upside include handset options, retail pricing plans and indoor coverage. "No matter how lousy the service provider's network or customer service, if they achieve the right balance and choice in their handset portfolio and price plans, just about any provider can build market share," Lonergan says.

Indoor coverage possibly could be a differentiator as well. In the early days of 3G, it was assumed 3G would be used by individuals out and about and as a complement to home land-line broadband service. 4G might be different: onsumers might use it more as a substitute for some home broadband usage, as they already use their 3G mobiles indoors.

80% U.S. Smartphone Penetration by End of 2012?

Is it possible 80 percent of U.S. mobile phones in use by the end of 2012 could be smartphones? The answer is "yes."

To get there, one would only have to assume that current use rates of mobile browsers are a solid indication of current smartphone use, that current rates of usage will grow at current rates of nine percent every quarter through 2011, and then will increase one percentage point faster during each quarter of 2012.


U.S. mobile users increased their use of browsers, downloaded applications and social networking at about a nine percent rate each during the first quarter of 2010, according to comScore. At that rate, by the end of 2010, 39 percent of mobile subscribers will use browsers, 38 percent will be using downloaded applications and 25 percent will be using social media.

If that rate continues throughout 2011, by the end of that year 55 percent of mobile subscribers will be using browsers, 53 percent will be using downloaded applications and 35 percent will be using social networking.

In an average month during the January through March 2010 time period, 64 percent of U.S. mobile subscribers used text messaging on their mobile device, up 0.6 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter of 2009.

Browsers were used by 30 percent of U.S. mobile subscribers, up three percentage points over the fourth quarter of 2009. About 29 percent of mobile users downloaded applications, up three percent from the fourth quarter of 2009.

Some 19 percent of mobile users used social networking sites and blogs in the first quarter of 2010, up three percent over the fourth quarter of 2009.

So the issue is what would be different about your life or your business if 80 percent of mobile users are on smartphones by the end of 2012, and those smartphones can download at speeds between 3 Mbps and perhaps 12 Mbps, and can upload at speeds from 1 Mbps to perhaps 5 Mbps.

Click on the image for a larger view.

See more detail here

Apple Gets Ready for 3G iPad Launch

You might think the launch of the 3G version of the Apple iPad, able to use both Wi-Fi and mobile broadband access, will not get the attention the initial launch itself has gotten. Apple will launch the mobile network version today, April 29, 2010.

But it appears every Apple retail location will be closed for one hour, starting at 4 p.m, in order to prepare for the launch of the iPad 3G. 

Apple might be expecting lines. It's a non-scientific, nearly random observation, but two Apple iPad owners I know of already plan to give their Wi-Fi-only versions to other family members and buy a 3G-capable unit. There could be lines. 

Will Rogers Introduce Bundled Mobile Broadband Plans?

Canadian wireless provider Rogers apparently is considering giving customers a data plan that would let them use an iPad (or other similar devices) plus mobile phones, on a single access plan,  according to Electronista.

That's the sort of innovation in pricing plans and packaging that seems almost inevitable as people start using multiple wireless devices, and start to rebel against paying separate access fees for every single device they use, especially when some of those devices might not require much bandwidth, while others are used often enough to justify a typical $30 a month plan.

Observers often criticize mobile and other service providers for unimaginative thinking on such matters. Fair or not, one wonders what changes might be in store when fourth-generation Long Term Evolution networks start to enter their marketing phases.

So far, Clearwire has been more experimental than other leading mobile providers. To be fair, it isn't clear how much creativity actually can be brought to bear on the basic access service. But we ought to expect some changes as the types of devices benefiting from mobile access proliferate, and people start using multiple devices.

link

Smartphones a Majority of all U.S. Devices in 2011

By 2011, there will be more smartphones in use in the U.S. market than feature phones, Nielsen now projects.

The share of smartphones as a proportion of overall device sales has increased to 29 percent for phone purchasers in the last six months and 45 percent of respondents to a Nielsen survey indicated that their next device will be a smartphone.

Given normal handset replacement cycles, it is possible to project that the installed base of devices will shift dramatically over the next two years. For those of you who wonder about such things, that would likely make the United States one of the world leaders in smartphone usage.

related story

T-Mobile USA's New Broadband Network Will Cover 180 Million, Offer Speeds of 21 Mbps or 22 Mbps

T-Mobile USA says it expects to have 100 metropolitan areas in the United States covered by its upgraded high-speed wireless network, which should operate up to about 21 Mbps or 22 Mbps in the downstream direction, by the end of 2010.

The new HSPA-Plus network is a "3G" technology that operates at speeds very comparable to 4G alternatives, and might very well give T-Mobile the fastest national network, for at least a while, by the end of the year.

HSPA Plus will cover roughly 180 million Americans by the end of the year, T-Mobile USA says. The technology is already live in some regions, including the New York metropolitan area, the Washington DC suburbs, and will be coming soon to Los Angeles.

Oddly, many observers continue to insist there is "no competition" in the U.S. broadband market. Aside from cable operators and telcos, there now are going to be four mobile broadband networks in national operation by the end of the year, offering speeds equivalent to, or faster, than is available in many markets from terrestrial providers.

Global Spending on Mobile Networks to Grow 4% in 2010

Given dramatic increases in mobile Internet and broadband use, it is perhaps not surprising that mobile service providers will be hiking their network investments about four percent in 2010.

Informa Telecoms & Media estimates that mobile broadband subscribers worldwide  reached more than 225 million subscribers in mid-2009, representing 93 percent year-over-year growth.

Global mobile data bandwidth usage increased by about 30 percent during the second quarter of 2009, says Allot Communications.

The investment growth comes on top of about two years of flat to negative spending where mobile service providers tried to hold down spending in the face of the global recession.

Overall investment was down about three percent in 2009, says ABI Research.

Investments in 3.5G technologies such as HSPA and HSPA+, along with the rollout of 4G LTE networks by large operators such Verizon Wireless and Telia Sonera, are driving much of the activity. The fastest growth in capital expenditures is expected to be in South America, where compound average growth rates will average 10 percent between 2009 and 2015.

”The rapid adoption of smartphones will drive service revenue growth in 2010, as more consumers adopt data plans to take advantage of their handsets’ features,” says ABI Research analyst Bhavya Khanna.

Developed markets such as North America and Western Europe saw more than 17 percent year over year growth in mobile Internet revenues, a trend that is likely to continue into 2010.

ABI Research forecasts mobile Internet service revenues to grow at a CAGR of 9.4 percent between 2009 and 2015.

Netbooks Are Changing Consumer Expectations

A new survey by PriceGrabber.com suggests netbooks have set new expected price points for computer purchases, an outcome many suppliers likely feared would be the case.

The percentage of online consumers who personally own a netbook has increased from 10 percent last year to 15 percent early in 2010. Moreover, 11 percent of consumers plan to purchase a netbook in 2010.

The disparity between the dollar amount consumers are willing to pay for their next device compared to the amount they paid for their last device is evident. About 65 percent of consumers say the maximum amount they plan to spend on their next computing device is $750, even though 52 percent of online consumers spent more than $750 on their last device.

The average price of products in the PriceGrabber.com laptop category dropped to $645 in December 2009, from $808 in December 2008. This suggests a 20 percent decrease in average price.

Netbooks are more of a complement than a replacement for laptops, though. Some 55 percent of consumers do not see a netbook as a feasible replacement for a laptop. Additionally, 63 percent indicate that a netbook is best described as an additional device while on the go, not a substitute for a notebook or desktop PC.

The largest age group of netbook owners has shifted from 35 to 54 years to 45 to 64 years over the past year, the survey suggests.

In January 2009, 53 percent of netbook owners were between the ages of 35 and 54 as compared to only 31 percent one year later. In January 2010, 55 percent of netbook owners fall within 45 to 64 years of age as compared to 43 percent last year.

Of those consumers who indicate personally owning a netbook, 86 percent also own a laptop and 73 percent also own a desktop. More netbook owners indicated also owning laptops and desktops last year.

The survey suggests there is an opportunity for netbooks to cannibalize other products, though. In fact, 72 percent of consumers see a laptop as a feasible replacement for a desktop, 45 percent of consumers see a netbook as a feasible replacement for a laptop, and 27 percent of consumers see a netbook as a feasible replacement for a smartphone.

Users Prefer Flat-Rate Pricing. Duh!

Mobile internet users across the United Kingdom and United States prefer flat-rate pricing, a new survey by YouGov has found. That finding should surprise nobody in the U.S. market, given the development of the whole Internet access business since AOL dropped metered billing and went to flat rate packaging.

Unsurprisingly, respondents said they would use the mobile Web more if flat rate access is available. That does not necessarily suggest consumers would reject flat-rate plans that are tiered for usage, even if any rational consumer would say they prefer a low flat rate for unlimited usage.

Smartphone users might be used to low rate, unlimited access, but users of mobile PC dongles and cards are well accustomed to the idea that usage and price are related for "buckets" of usage.

Some 4,324 consumers,18 or older, were polled as part of the study.

In the United Kingdom, 33 percent of respondents  reported that they don't use the Internet despite having access on their phone, while 25 percent of U.S. respondents with an Internet-ready phone say they do not use that feature.

The study also found that users want Web sites and services optimized for their specific mobile device, especially if it means that they could more quickly access the services they want. About 32 percent of respondents say that would increase their usage.

About 51 per cent of all respondents said they were only prepared to spend up to three minutes surfing for a specific piece of content on their phones, emphasizing the importance of navigation and usability.

About 13 percent of U.K. users, and 17 percent of U.S. respondents now access the Internet more than once a day from their phones. About 27 per cent of U.K. consumers and 28 percent of U.S. consumers surveyed now use the mobile Internet at least once a week, if not more.

Broadband "Overshoot": How Big an Issue?

Fixed network operators, including cable operators and telcos, face two different problems when considering upgrades of their broadband access networks. One danger is not investing enough to keep capacity in line with the level of market demand. The opposite problem is investing too much.

In fact, that is a scenario at least some mobile competitors hope might be the case. "Fixed line broadband will overshoot the performance needs of the market, resulting in increasing data cord cutting as individuals, families, and businesses appreciate the value of mobility more than the value of excess bandwidth," says Russ McGuire Sprint Nextel VP.

That's not an unexpected view,coming from a wireless-only company building high-capacity wireless networks, but it is worth considering.Mobile broadband might, or might not, be a reasonable substitute for users who really want to watch lots of video on their PCs, smartphones or other mobile devices.

But mobile is likely to be quite a reasonable alternative for users who don't stream or download much video, especially if they are fairly mobile, either locally or over larger distances.