Over-the-Top Video Complements Linear, At the Moment

Almost a third of urban consumers (31 percent) report they watch TV content using a computer, laptop, mobile device, tablet, or streamed directly from the Internet to the TV through an an Apple TV, a Vudu Box, an Xbox, or a Blu-Ray DVD player, according to Horowitz Associates.

Those who use alternative platforms for TV spend, on average, 15 percent of their viewing time on a platform other than traditional TV. This is in addition to time devoted to digital TV platforms such as DVRs and VOD.

Those findings probably make sense for most people who think about the matter. At this point, most people supplement linear video with over-the-top.

Separately, Nielsen data suggest that the alternative--dropping all linear video service in favor of online-only--remains quite rare. ESPN says there remains little evidence of consumer abandonment of multichannel video service, especially where it comes to sports programming. Analyzing Nielsen data, ESPN argues that Just 18/100ths of U.S. households “cut the cord” between fourth quarter 2010 and first quarter 2011. “Cord cutters” are defined as as multichannel users with a high-speed Internet connection that have dropped their cable/telco/satellite subscriptions, but retain their broadband connection to watch television. The current rate of 0.18 percent is less than the 0.28 percent found in ESPN’s previous analysis of cord-cutting from third to fourth Quarter 2010.

The amount of “cord-cutters” – multichannel homes with a high-speed Internet connection that drop their cable/telco/satellite subscriptions, but retain their broadband connection to watch television – netted out to only 0.11 percent of the television population over the past three months, according to an extensive ESPN analysis of Nielsen’s national people meter sample. The ESPN study provides a methodology for measuring and tracking cord cutting in the future, while debunking several stereotypes about the demographics of cord cutters.

The earlier ESPN analysis of Nielsen data found that just 0.28 percent of homes in the Nielsen sample dropped multichannel service but kept their broadband Internet connections. This migration was offset by a group of broadcast-only households that became subscribers to multichannel TV and broadband over the same period. These "un-cutters" represented 0.17 percent of homes in the Nielsen sample, so the net loss between the groups was just 0.11 percent of all households. Additionally, people who were heavy or medium sports viewers showed zero cord cutting. Heavy and medium sports viewers account for 83% of sports viewing and 90% of viewing to ESPN.  read more here.

The Cable & Telecommunications Association for Marketing argues that only 11 percent of the U.S. population currently watches "some TV shows and movies from the Internet on their TV sets." The vast majority of these Internet TV viewers (84%) say that they are still watching the same amount of traditional TV as before and have no plans to cancel their current cable subscriptions. read more here.

At least in aggregate, the number of users who dropped service altogether was almost exactly balanced by the number of consumers that bought multichannel video for the first time, or decided to subscribe again after an absence. These "un-cutters" also represented 0.18 percent of homes in the Nielsen sample, so the net loss between the groups was zero, ESPN argues.

Of course, there is a difference between current or immediately-past behavior and behavior as it might exist in the future. Almost nobody, if anyone at all, actually believes there will be anything but growth for over-the-top viewing, over time.

From ESPN's viewpoint, heavy or medium sports viewers showed zero cord cutting. Heavy and medium sports viewers account for 77 percent of sports viewing and 87 percent of viewing to ESPN. That makes sense. Live sports is one area of programming virtually none of the over-the-top providers can offer. To the extent that live sports is a major reason for watching linear video, there is little ability to shift viewing to online formats. The same is likely true of live news and live events that are for all sorts of reasons available only on broadcast and linear outlets.

Nielsen found that in households with people 25 years old or younger, 8.5 percent are cable-free, which is almost twice the national average. Younger people consider cable a “luxury item:” one that might be out of their budget right now, but would become an option once they grew older and could afford that extra $100 a month.

Horowitz Study Shows Online, Mobile, and OTT Platforms Gain Ground

Social Networking Overtakes Email

Internet activity patterns are changing, according to Nielsen Online. In the past, email has been the "killer app" for Internet users. More recently, search replaced email.

These days, email has been eclipsed by search and social networking.

Two thirds of the world’s Internet population visit a social network or blogging site and the sector now accounts for almost 10 percent of all Internet activity time. "Member communities" have overtaken personal email to become the world’s fourth most popular online acivity after search, portals and PC software applications, Nielsen says.

The total amount spent online globally increased by 18 percent between December 2007 and December 2008. In the same period, however, the amount of time spent on member community sites rose by 63 percent to 45 billion minutes,  and on Facebook by a massive 566 percent, says Nielsen, growing from 3.1 billion minutes to 20.5 billion minutes.

"The staggering increase in the amount of time people are spending on these sites is changing the way people spend their time online and has ramifications for how people behave, share and interact within their normal daily lives," says Nielsen.

Consumer engagement within social networks has the potential to change the way consumers are targeted, not just through the digital medium, but through all forms of traditional media, Nielsen adds.

According to Nielsen Online, more people in the United States, Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and the United Kingdom are using social networks and blogs than email. Where 85.9 percent of respondents say they use search, 65.1 percent say they use email.

In addition, time spent on social networks and blogging sites is growing at over three times the rate of overall Internet growth.

http://www.nielsen-online.com/pr/pr_090309.pdf

How Cloonan's Curve Suggests Cable Operators Can Extend the Life of HFC

Nielsen’s Law of Internet Bandwidth states that a high-end user’s connection speed grows by 50 percent each year, doubling roughly every 21 months. That suggests a top-end internet access connection in 2025 will offer 10 Gbps speeds in the downstream. 

But it is reasonable to assume Nielsen’s growth rates cannot continue forever, as 50 percent compounded growth without end has some physical limits (time, physics, cost, demand, substitutes). At some point, as was true with personal computer processors, parallel processing becomes the method for boosting performance, while raw processing itself loses relevance as a product differentiator. 

In the consumer internet access space, that suggests both new ways of supplying bandwidth, less value produced by ever-increasing speed offers and a shift to other forms of value. 

Nielsen’s Law only predicts the top speed available for purchase, however, not the average or typical speed a consumer might buy. It has taken quite some time for customer uptake of gigabit internet access services to reach as much as eight percent share of total, for example. 

Keep in mind that the first U.S. gigabit services began commercialization in 2013. It has taken seven years for adoption to reach eight percent of the installed base, in part because that grade of service is not universally available in the U.S. market, for example. 

Cloonan's Curve provides a way of estimating bandwidth speeds purchased by cable modem customers, in relation to the headline speed (Nielsen rate). Most customers do not typically buy the fastest-available service, as that also is typically the most-expensive tier of service. Instead, they tend to buy the mid-level service. 

The caveat is that Cloonan’s Curve obviously does not apply to service providers that sell only a single tier of service, at the advertised headline rate (“gigabit only,” for example). 

source: Commscope

This illustration of downstream bandwidth plans actually purchased by customers suggests that although both Nielsen and Cloonan rates increase at about 50 percent per year, most customers buy services that offer six times to 20 times less speed than the fastest-available service tier. 

Think of the fastest tier of service (1 Gbps, for example) as the “billboard tier” that is featured in service provider advertising as the “speeds as fast as X” rate. Then consider the “common or popular tiers” as those in the middle of the offered speed ranges. Then there is an “economy tier” for customers with light usage patterns, limited app requirements or willingness to pay profiles. 

That has implications for network planning, bandwidth upgrades and marketing. Internet service providers can advertise the headline speed knowing that a small percentage of customers are going to buy it. 

source: Commscope

Networks obviously must be designed to deliver the headline rate. But total bandwidth consumption, which affects the capabilities of the rest of the network, does not assume that every customer buys the headline rate service. Instead, the variable portions of the network can be designed on the assumption that most customers will, in fact, not buy the headline service. 

Since speed and data consumption tend to be correlated, that affects capacity planning for backhaul, for example. Simply, the Cloonan Curve informs thinking about how much capacity must grow to support the actual mix of demand from the full set of customers, based on their actual buying patterns. 

That is important to match capital investment as much as possible to the variable demands placed on the network by various customer groups. 

For a cable ISP, there are other implications. At some point, it will make sense to migrate the highest-usage customers--often identical with those buying the headline service--off the hybrid fiber coax network and onto a parallel access network using fiber to the home instead. 

It is common to find that the top one percent of customers generate as much as 15 percent of total network usage, for example. So moving those customers off the core network frees up considerable capacity for the rest of the customers, 90 percent of whom might be supported on the legacy access network. 

That allows a longer useful life for the HFC network, as most customers will continue to buy the popular and economy tiers of service that still can be supported using HFC. 

Nielsen’s Law does not account for upstream bandwidth, however. Upstream capacity tends to grow at about half the rate of downstream bandwidth, or about 25 percent per year. 

Customer behavior also varies. On cable networks, the heaviest users (one percent) of customers generate as much as 47 percent of upstream bandwidth. And it often is the case that 80 percent of total upstream capacity demand is generated by just 10 percent of total users. 

ISPs using telecom platforms also will confront that same general issue of bandwidth growth, and the differential demand for tiers of service. Fiber to home platforms keep increasing performance as well, and some suggest future performance will be boosted economically based on use in the local loop of components originally commercialized to support data center optics. 

That is why 25 Gbps passive optical networks initially deployed for business-to-business applications in the local loop will be powered by commercial availability of data center optical components, Nokia argues. Commercialization for B2B use cases should then be leveraged for B2C applications as well. 

Nielsen’s Law and Cloonan’s Curve also suggest the potential limits of HFC as a platform. If consumer usage patterns do not change; if ISP usage policies do not change; if app usage patterns do not change; if pricing patterns do not change, then there is a point in time where HFC fails to support cable operator business models. 

The point of overlaying FTTH for the heaviest users is that, all other things being equal, the useful life of HFC is extended, with a more-gradual shift of cable platforms to FTTH over time. 

The issue is to avoid the stranded capital problem and immediate higher capital investment implications of a jump cut to FTTH. That would be as difficult for cable operators has it has proven to be for telcos.

High Social Media Use Also Means High Email Use, Nielsen Finds

At least in principle, as consumers and workers get access to unified communiations tools, there is a chance behavior will change. When a user can get a message in one media format and reply in another format, people might start using the tools they like best, and thereby decreasing use of other message formats.

Researchers at the Nielsen company, for example, guessed that as people began using social media, they would use less email, for example. To test that thesis, Nielsen broke the online population into four groups.

The first three are terciles of social media consumption in minutes, says Jon Gibs, VP, Media Analytics.  The fourth is a group that doesn’t use social media at all.

Nielsen then looked at each segment’s time of web based email consumption over the course of a year.
Finally, Nielsen subtracted the email consumption of those that do not use social media from those that do, basically to show a lift over possible external forces.

As it turns out, Nielsen found the opposite of what it guessed it would find.

"It actually appears that social media use makes people consume email more, not less, as we had originally assumed, particularly for the highest social media users," says Gibs.

In part, that might be because social media sites like Facebook can be set to send messages to user inboxes every time someone comments on a post, depending on user preferences.

But it also is likely that high users of social media are, well, "social." They might use any number of media to keep in touch with friends and associates.

Is TV Getting Cannibalized or Not?

A new IBM study reveals that online video is cannibalizing television consumption. Another study by Nielsen says U.S. TV watching actually has climbed. Maybe there are key differences between U.S. and global TV viewing that could account for the differences. But the Nielsen report also notes that “TV use is at an all-time high, yet people are also using the Internet more often; 31 percent of which is happening simultaneously,” Susan Whiting, Nielsen vice chairwoman says.

That's a potential way of harmonizing some of the difference. People could be watching online video while the TV is on in the background.

The IBM poll of 2,800 people in six countries found that 76 percent have viewed video online and that 45 percent do so regularly. About 15 percent of those who watch online videos say they watch "slightly less" TV than they used to, while 36 percent say they watch "significantly less" TV as a result of their online video viewing. Indeed, "place-shifting alternatives may be changing consumer couch-potato behavior," the study claims. IBM polled 2,800 people in six countries for the study.

In the third quarter of 2008, the average American watched approximately 142 hours of TV per month, five hours more than they watched in a typical month during the same period a year ago, Nielsen says. During the 2007 to 2008 television season, the average U.S. household consumed eight hours and 18 minutes of TV per day, a record high since Nielsen started measuring television in the 1950s.

Americans who used the Internet were online 27 hours a month, and people who used a mobile phone spent three hours a month watching mobile video. Men were more likely than women to watch via mobile phone, while women were more likely then men to watch video online.

Video, Social Networking Changing the Web

The growing popularity of online social networking and video content is deepening web users’ engagement with the Internet and is causing a dramatic shift in the global online landscape, says the Nielsen Company.

Nielsen’s research shows that since 2003, the interests of the average online user have shifted significantly, evolving from use of “short-tail” portal-oriented browsing sites, such as shopping directories, guides and internet tools, to sites that contain more specialized “long-tail” content geared to specific and interactive user interests.

This change is manifested by the fact that video and social networking sites are the two fastest growing categories in 2009, and will necessitate new ways of thinking about online marketing, Nielsen says.

The number of American users frequenting online video destinations has climbed 339 percent since 2003. The unique audience for online video surpassed that of email in November 2007.

Time spent on video sites has shot up almost 2,000 percent over the same period. In the past year, unique viewers of online video grew 10 percent, the number of streams grew 41 percent, the streams per user grew 27 percent and the total minutes engaged with online video grew 71 percent.

There also are 87 percent more online social media users now than in 2003, with 883 percent more time devoted to those sites, Nielsen says.

http://www.marketingcharts.com/television/socnets-web-video-radically-alter-online-behavior-8838/?utm_campaign=rssfeed&utm_source=mc&utm_medium=textlink

More At-Work Video Viewing, Nielsen Says

Though some studies continue to suggest that most online video is viewed at home, there also is growing evidence that at-work viewing is up as well. Among online TV viewers, almost nine out of 10 watch online broadcasts at home, according to the Conference Board. 

But a new study by Nielsen Online suggests people spend more time streaming video during weekday working hours than do so on weekends or at home on workday evenings. About 96 percent of at-work Web visitors in October 2008 were using a broadband connection. 

Since most online video is viewed on a PC, and with many employees spending nearly eight hours a day at their computers, workdays are prime time for online video viewing, Nielsen suggests. Nielsen says that 65 percent of online video viewers stream content between 9am to 5pm Monday through Friday, compared to 51 percent of online video viewers who log on between 6am and  8pm on weekends, or 43 percent on workday evenings between 8 pm and 11 pm. 

Operator App Stores Get More Traction Than You Might Think

Though many observers, including many service provider executives, might be skeptical about the long-term viability of operator-sponsored mobile application stores, a new study by Nielsen suggests consumers are favorably impressed with operator app stores, as compared to handset stores such as the Apple App Store.

(click image for larger view)

Many observers believe device app stores will ultimately gain favor, but a new Nielsen survey finds ongoing loyalty to carrier stores.  As of the end of 2009, half of all applications users were accessing carrier app stores according to Nielsen’s new App Playbook service.

That is not to say the Apple App Store has lost any luster in the United States. The relatively new BlackBerry App World Store also was the second most popular app store, in part because of BlackBerry’s industry-leading installed base.

But carrier application stores were not as far behind as some might think. About 84 percent of respondents said they were satisfied with the Apple App Store, while 81 percent said they were happy with the Android Market.

Some 59 percent of respondents said they were satisfied with the BlackBerry App World. About 56 percent reported satisfaction with the Windows Marketplace.

Most mobile carrier stores compare favorably with BlackBerry. About 64 percent of respondents were satisified witht he AT&T Application Store, while 65 percent said they were satisfied with the Sprint Application Store.

Some 66 percent said they were happy with the T-Mobile Application Store and 62 percent reported they were satisfied with the Verizon Application Store.

Nielsen’s App Playbook  surveys more than 4,000 application downloaders in the United States every six months about their mobile application usage.

more detail

Global Consumers' Distrust Advertising, Trust Word of Mouth

Some 92 percent of consumers around the world say they trust earned media, such as word-of-mouth and recommendations from friends and family, above all other forms of advertising, an increase of 18 percent since 2007, according to a new study from Nielsen. 


You might say such attitudes account for the greater interest in earned media (stories in mass media)  and owned media (sometimes called "brand publishing"). 


Online consumer reviews are the second most trusted form of advertising with 70 percent of global consumers surveyed online indicating they trust this platform, an increase of 15 percent in four years, Nielsen says. 


Nielsen’s survey of more than 28,000 Internet respondents in 56 countries shows that 47 percent of consumers around the world say they trust paid television, magazine and newspaper ads, confidence declined by 24 percent, 20 percent and 25 percent respectively since 2009. 


Still, the majority of advertising dollars are spent on traditional or paid media, such as television. In 2011, overall global ad spend saw a seven percent increase over 2010, according to Nielsen.

Not Much Actual Video Cord Cutting Going On, Nielsen Says

Consumers who really have stopped buying multi-channel video and watch online video instead are young and light TV viewers, a new analysis by Nielsen suggests.

Young, emerging households, younger college graduates and  lower to middle income consumers who may not be fully convinced of the need to pay for digital cable represent the core group abandoning their multi-channel video subscriptions and substituting online video.

Nielsen data shows that these individuals are typically light TV viewers who watch 40 percent less TV per day than the national average. And while they stream about twice the average amount of video, they still only stream about 10 minutes per day, hardly an indication of a monumental shift to online-only viewing, Nielsen says.

The number of people per month viewing online video increased six percent year-over-year, the study shows.

Online video streaming still only accounts for less than 2.5 percent of total video consumption across all demographics.

link

iPad on Wish Lists for Kids 6 to 12, Says Nielsen

The Apple iPad leads all devices (31 percent interest in future purchase) among American kids ages 6 to 12, according to The Nielsen Company.

Apple’s iPod Touch is also popular choice among kids, generating similar levels of interest as computers. Of note, the iPod Touch outpaces the perennial handheld gaming favorites Nintendo DS and Sony PlayStation Portable, Nielsen says.

Kids in the U.S. Eyeing Big-Ticket Tech This Holiday Season | Nielsen Wire

Gigabit Services are Right on Schedule According to Edholm's Law and Nielsen's Law

U.S. home broadband customers buying gigabit tiers of service grew 35 percent year over year in the third quarter of 2022, according to Openvault. At the moment, more than 15 percent of U.S. home broadband accounts use gigabit connections. 

Also, more than half of home broadband accounts buy service in the 200 Mbps to 400 Mbps range. That group grew 100 percent year over year. 

A little more than a year ago about half of households were buying service in the 100 Mbps to 200 Mbps range, showing that Nielsen’s Law and Edholm’s Law of bandwidth supply continue to operate. 

source: Openvault 

Edholm’s Law states that internet access bandwidth at the top end increases at about the same rate as Moore’s Law suggests computing power will increase. Nielsen's Law essentially is the same as Edholm’s Law, predicting an increase in the headline speed of about 50 percent per year. 

Nielsen's Law, like Edholm’s Law, suggests a headline speed of 10 Gbps will be commercially available by about 2025, so the commercial offering of 2-Gbps and 5-Gbps is right on the path to 10 Gbps. 

source: NCTA  

Headline speeds in the 100-Gbps range should be commercial sometime around 2030. 

How fast will the headline speed be in most countries by 2050? Terabits per second is the logical conclusion. Though the average or typical consumer does not buy the “fastest possible” tier of service, the steady growth of headline tier speed since the time of dial-up access is quite linear. 

Gigabit tier subscribers hit an inflection point last year. The rule of thumb is that any successful and widely-bought consumer technology enters its mass adoption phase when about 10 percent of homes are users. For U.S. gigabit adoption, that happened in 2021. 

Some might attribute the Covid pandemic and work from home as driving the change, but adoption rates would have taken off in 2021 in any case, as predicted by the 10-percent-of-homes adoption theory. 

It also is easy to predict that 2 Gbps to 4 Gbps is the next evolution, as speeds at the top end continue to increase by 50 percent a year. Ny 2025 we should start seeing the first 10-Gbps services deployed at scale.

ABC And Nielsen Partner On iPad App That ‘Syncs’ TV And Mobile Viewing

The ABC Television Group and The Nielsen Company have developed an iPad app for one of the network’s new primetime dramas in hopes of seeing how much of a connection there is between iPad viewing and regular TV watching.

The app is built on Nielsen’s Media-Sync Platform, which allows mobile apps to automatically detect and synchronize with TV programming using audio watermarks. That means users can watch, leave and come back again right where they left off.

The free My Generation Sync iPad app was available in iTunes’ App Store. In addition to promoting the show, "My Generation," the app also is also designed to help draw interest to Apple’s new $0.99 “TV show rental” offer with Apple.

ABC And Nielsen Partner On iPad App That ‘Syncs’ TV And Mobile Viewing

Mobile Twitter Passes ESPN, Facebook, and Google

Subscribers to paid community Predicto are different from users of the free mobile Twitter community, says Nielsen Mobile. Twitter has a dominant presence among young and male oriented audiences while Predicto attracts a more mainstream following with a broader penetration, particularly with the female and older demographics.

Twitter is the leading free mobile community, and Predicto is the largest paid mobile community, Nielsen says.

In the fourth quarter of 2008, Twitter amassed approximately 812,000 unique text messaging users, while Predicto Mobile interacted with over 2,303,000 unique users, according to Nielsen Mobile.

Some other key differences in the user breakdown of the two leading mobile communities include 57/43 percent male/female ratio for Twitter versus 45/55 percent for Predicto.

Some 49 percent of Twitter users are in the 35-plus age group versus 68 percent with Predicto. About16 percent of Twitter users earn $100,000 or more compared to 20 percent for Predicto.

During the fourth quarter of 2008, Twitter overtook other free mobile services including ESPN, Facebook, and Google. At the same time, Predicto remains the undisputed leader in the premium mobile space, further distancing itself from NBC in second place, Nielsen Mobile says.

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2009/04/prweb2367764.htm

Android People Heavier Web Users than iPhone People?

The Motorola Droid is the latest smartphone to be touted as a poential  “iPhone killer.” I'm not among those doing so, not for any lack of confidence in the Droid so much as a belief that the iPhone is not just a smartphone.

Like other Apple products before it, and like some other popular consumer products, the iPhone already has carved out an "experience" and "emotional bond" that cannot be broken by a substitute product.

Still, the Droid seems to be the sort of product that will advance the use and adoption of Web content to a connected device, especially for users whose Web experiences are heavily Google-mediated.

Significantly, Nielsen data from the third quarter of 2009 already suggests Android users are heavy mobile Web users, maybe even more so than iPhone users, who, up to this point, have been the heaviets mobile Web users.

But there is still plenty of room in the market for devices that are optimized around a lead application. The iPhone might have been the best example to date of a device really optimized around Web access as BlackBerry has been optimized around mobile email and other devices are plumbing the "turn by turn navigation" app, for example.

In the fourth quarter of 2009, perhaps 40 percent of all new devices sold will be smartphones of one sort or another. By 2011, smartphones will represent the majority of phones in use, Nielsen forecasts.

"Projecting Nielsen data out through 2010, we see smartphones crossing 50 percent of the market by the middle of 2011, roughly equal to 150 million users," says Jerry Rocha, Nielsen Online Division senior director.

Online and Mobile Video Still Incremental to TV

It still appears that online and mobile video consumption is incremental to regular TV viewing, The Nielsen Company says.

“Although we have seen the computer and mobile phone screens taking on a significant role, their emergence has not been at the cost of TV viewership,” says Jim O’Hara, The Nielsen Co. president. The reason is that consumers simply are increasing the total amount of video they consume.

“The entire media universe is expanding so consumers are choosing to add elements to their media experience, rather than to replace them,” O'Hara says.

Nielsen data also shows Americans are using DVRs more than ever, watching one hour more of timeshifted TV each month than a year ago. Currently, 30 percent of homes in the U.S. have DVR devices.

During the second quarter of 2009, the number of people watching mobile video increased 70 percent from last year and people who watch video online increased their viewing by 46 percent compared to a year ago. In addition, the average American TV consumption remains at an all-time high (141 hours per month) compared to the same time frame last year.

Online usage is relatively flat since last year, though more people are viewing video online than ever before. But adults 18 to 24 watch more than five hours each month.

Short form video (such as YouTube clips) still makes up 83 percent of online video viewing, while name-brand TV network content comprises the majority of mobile video viewing.

Mobile video viewing continues its upward trend, with over 15 million Americans reporting watching mobile video in the second quarter of 2009, an increase of 70 percent versus last year and the largest annual growth yet seen, Nielsen says.

Regulators Cannot Keep Up with Pace of Change in Computing and Communications

It often has been said that regulators cannot keep up with the pace of change in computing, broadband and applications. That has proven to be true for regulators looking at home broadband performance. 

About 2010 or so Ofcom, the U.K. regulator laid out a national goal for “superfast” internet access of about 30 Mbps, at a time when the typical speed most consumers were able to use was about 6 Mbps.

Average actual U.K. fixed-line residential broadband speeds grew from about 3,6 Mbps in 2008 to about 15 Mbps in 2013. 

source: Ofcom 

In 2011, Ofcom warned of low interest in 50-Mbps services, for example. 

Ofcom also worried about low interest in 30 Mbps services as well. 

That same year, a 50-Mbps internet access connection (home broadband) cost close to $100 a month. 

The next formal goal will be gigabit per second access, which shows you just how fast improvements are coming in the home broadband business. 

That same degree of improvement was seen in the U.S. market as well. Back in 2010 average U.S. home broadband speeds were about 5 Mbps. By 2019 speeds had climbed to about 33 Mbps. 

U.S. median home broadband speeds were about 131 Mbps in October 2021.  

source: Nielsen Norman Group 

By 2050 the home broadband headline speeds are likely to be in terabits per second. Though the average or typical consumer does not buy the “fastest possible” tier of service, the steady growth of headline tier speed since the time of dial-up access is quite linear. 

And the growth trend--50 percent per year speed increases--known as Nielsen’s Law--has operated since the days of dial-up internet access. Even if the “typical” consumer buys speeds an order of magnitude less than the headline speed, that still suggests the typical consumer--at a time when the fastest-possible speed is 100 Gbps to 1,000 Gbps--still will be buying service operating at speeds not less than 1 Gbps to 10 Gbps. 

Though typical internet access speeds in Europe and other regions at the moment are not yet routinely in the 300-Mbps range, gigabit per second speeds eventually will be the norm, globally, as crazy as that might seem, by perhaps 2050. 

The reason is simply that the historical growth of retail internet bandwidth suggests that will happen. Over any decade period, internet speeds have grown 57 times. Since 2050 is three decades off, headline speeds of tens to hundreds of terabits per second are easy to predict. 

source: FuturistSpeaker 

Some will argue that Nielsen’s Law cannot continue indefinitely, as most would agree Moore’s Law cannot continue unchanged, either. Even with some significant tapering of the rate of progress, the point is that headline speeds in the hundreds of gigabits per second still are feasible by 2050. And if the typical buyer still prefers services an order of magnitude less fast, that still indicates typical speeds of 10 Gbps 30 Gbps or so. 

Speeds of a gigabit per second might be the “economy” tier as early as 2030, when headline speed might be 100 Gbps and the typical consumer buys a 10-Gbps service. 

source: Nielsen Norman Group 

Faster Home Broadband Just Keeps Coming, As Edholm and Nielsen Laws Predict

Google Fiber will launch 5-Gbps and 8-Gbps internet access service in early 2023. Both products will offer symmetrical upload and download speeds, Google says. 

Google Fiber launched gigabit service in 2010, 2-Gbps service in 2020 and (and is testing 20-Gbps service. 

The 5-Gbps tier will cost $125 per month, while the 8-Gbps tier will cost $150 per month. 

Separately, it seems increasingly likely that Comcast will begin to introduce service at speeds possibly in the 4-Gbps to 6-Gbps range in 2023. And those services might well be symmetrical, able to extend to 10-Gbps symmetrical. 

Those speed increases are predictable and expected according to two theorems. 

Nielsen's Law suggests that the top-end speed will grow 50 percent per year. Edholm’s Law states that internet access bandwidth at the top end increases at about the same rate as Moore’s Law, which is about a doubling every 18 months or so. 

That means the top-end home broadband speed could be 85 Gbps to 100 Gbps by about 2030. 

source: NCTA  

Nielsen Norman Group estimates suggest a headline speed of 10 Gbps will be commercially available by about 2025, so the commercial offering of 2-Gbps and 5-Gbps is right on the path to 10 Gbps. 

AT&T, for example, just activated symmetrical 2-Gbps and symmetrical 5-Gbps service for 5.2  million locations across 70 U.S. markets, with plans to deploy across the whole footprint in 2022 and later years. 

There is widespread expectation that the headline speed for home broadband, in many markets, will be 10 Gbps by about 2025. 

By other rules of thumb, that also suggests the "typical" home broadband customer will be buying service at rates between 1 Gbps and 2 Gbps, with a significant percentage buying service at 4 Gbps. 

Nielsen’s Law has operated since the days of dial-up internet access. Even if the “typical” consumer buys speeds an order of magnitude less than the headline speed, that still suggests the typical consumer--at a time when the fastest-possible speed is 100 Gbps to 1,000 Gbps--still will be buying service operating at speeds not less than 1 Gbps to 10 Gbps.  

source: FuturistSpeaker 

So top end speeds in the terabits per second are virtually inevitable by about 2050. The emergence of offers between 2 Gbps and 5 Gbps now is simply evidence that the trend continues. 

At the moment, top speeds in the U.S. market are in the 2 Gbps and 5 Gbps ranges.Comcast has introduced 3-Gbps services for business. Ziply has introduced symmetrical 2-Gbps service. Google Fiber has added 2-Gbps as well. 

Frontier Communications is doing the same. Verizon offers 2-Gbps Fios service. AT&T sells both 5-Gbps and 2-Gbps service. Many of those offers feature symmetrical bandwidth. 

Perhaps the greatest value change, though, is not the headline downstream speed, but the symmetrical speeds, as in the U.S. market asymmetrical services sold by cable operators have nearly 70 percent market share. 

Though the cable hybrid-fiber coax networks can be configured to support more upstream bandwidth, fully-symmetrical service typically requires switching to fiber-to-the-home platforms. 

To scale new capital investments, cable operators in many cases will choose to extend downstream speeds and lift upstream speeds, approaching or reaching fully symmetrical service with DOCSIS 4.0 before considering other measures such as switching to FTTH. 

If the “typical” customer buys a service operating at up to an order of magnitude less than the highest headline speed, we might infer that the typical home account--offered by ISPs with various speed plans--will be buying service at speeds between 500 Mbps and 800 Mbps in 2025. 

Keep in mind that Google Fiber’s footprint is quite limited, so not many households will be able to buy Google Fiber service, now generally available at either 1-Gbps or 2-Gbps speeds. In such cases, the headline speed and the median speed tend to be virtually identical. 

The real local market test will tend to be the 2-Gbps to 5-Gbps services sold by Comcast, which has the biggest home footprint, or AT&T, with perhaps the third-biggest footprint. But those services are marketed mostly to business customers, at this point. 

Consumer Ratings, Reviews are Preferred Product Information Sources

Consumers are spending more time than ever using social media, according to Nielsen and NM Incite, a Nielsen/McKinsey company. And social media seem to be quite  influential. In fact, 63 percent of survey respondents say their "preferred" way of learning about products and services is from consumer ratings. 


Some 62 percent say their preferred method of learning about products is from consumer reviews. 


About 60 percent of consumers researching products through multiple online sources learned about a specific brand or retailer through social networking sites, Nielsen says. 


Active social media users are more likely to read product reviews online, and three out of five create their own reviews of products and services. Women are more likely than men to tell others about products that they like (81 percent of females vs. 72 percent of males). Overall, consumer-generated reviews and product ratings are the most preferred sources of product information among social media users.

How Social Media Impacts Brand Marketing