Thinking About Absconding with a Netbook Under Contract?

LM Ericsson has developed a new modem, intended for use in netbooks sold at a discount by wireless providers, that will remotely disable the computer if a customer on a contract stops paying his or her bills. Of course, there are other applications as well. An enterprise information technology manager dealing with a stolen laptop could lock down data on the machine to ensure security.

Lenovo Group, which makes the enterprise-oriented IBM ThinkPad line of PCs, has said it will build this sort of feature into its laptops.

The new Ericsson modem also is said to have the ability to remain active even when a PC is turned off, perhaps listening for messages such as email or Skype calls.

http://tech.yahoo.com/news/ap/20090331/ap_on_hi_te/tec_techbit_laptop_modems

Opera for Virgin Mobile

Opera Software will be available on some Virgin Mobile USA handsets as part of a deal that makes Virgin Mobile USA a distributor of the mobile browser. Helio was the first U.S. carrier to sign a deal with Opera Mini in the United States.

Open Range to Bring WiMAX to 6 Million Rural Homes

For those of you who might be wondering, high-speed broadband in rural America is not in as dire straights as you might think. There's a problem, but it is being solved. Consider that estimates of rural un-served or underserved households range from six million to 10 million.

Then consider that just one company--Open Range Communications--has raised enough money to bring fourth-generation wireless to about six million U.S. households in rural U.S. areas. And construction is about to begin.

Level 3 Communications has announced an agreement with Open Range Communications, which intends to deliver wireless broadband using WiMAX to 500 rural communities in 17 states, reaching an audience of six million potential subscribers.

Open Range will leverage Level 3’s extended on-net services to offer high-speed Internet and voice services to millions of previously un-served or underserved communities across North America.

Open Range has gotten a $100 million investment by One Equity Partners, the private equity arm of JPMorgan Chase and a loan provided by the United States Department of Agriculture's Rural Development Utilities Program (RDUP) for $267 million.

Personally, I'd argue Open Range is going to build more broadband facilities, reaching more potential customers, than every single project funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act ("broadband stimulus"). And for a lot less money.

U.S. Telecom Capex to Drop 7% in 2009

U.S. communications carrier capital spending will dip 7.3 percent in 2009, Yankee Group analysts now predict. That's less than the 10 percent figure some of us have speculated about, purely on a non-scientific “gut feeling” basis.

Actual declines will vary based on industry segment. Wireless investment is going to continue at healthier levels, as will broadband investments related to IPTV rollouts and broadband access generally. As you would predict, investments in legacy voice are going to be starved, by comparison.

Telecommunications carriers globally will chop about $12 billion from their capital budgets, decreasing their spending from $284 billion in 2008 to $272 billion in 2009.

Some observers will find that figure relatively heartening news, as it represents a bit more than a four percent dip, at least globally. And some regions and countries actually will increase spending, the Asia Pacific region in particular.

Globally, capex, as a percentage of revenue, will decline from 15.2 percent of revenues in 2008 to 14.1 percent in 2009.

U.S. IT Forecasts Revised: Down in 2009 (no surprise)

Gartner and Forrester have both lowered their expectations of U.S.technology spending this year.

Gartner now forecasts a 3.8 percent drop in spending worldwide to $3,200 billion, compared with the $3,400 billion recorded in 2008. Three months ago, it was predicting a modest rise in spend this year over last year. Gartner points out that the decline it now predicts is worse than the 2.1 percent fall in IT spending in 2001, after the dot-com bubble.

Gartner predicts a 15 percent decline in computer hardware shipments, a three percent fall in telecom spending, a two percent drop in IT services and 0.3 percent growth in software sales.

Forrester now expects information technology sales to shrink by 3.1 percent in 2009, compared with the 1.6 percent it previously suggested.

All analysts overshoot. We extrapolate from past trends, which generally works fine so long as markets are not at turning points. One can almost predict an overshoot to the down side at some point, as trends change again.

Ribbit Announces KillerApp Winners

Ribbit has announced the winners of its "KillerApps" challenge, a contest for developers of new applications using the Ribbit voice platform.

Lucid Viewer won the "Media, Advertising, Entertainment" category for its authoring tool that allows developers to create immersive experiences. The tool allows users to call up stores directly from a Flash interface, such as a three-dimensional view of a street in Rome, Italy. Lucid Viewer also won the Grand Prize in Ribbit's KillerApps contest.

Sugared Frog won the "Business" category, with an app that integrates SugarCRM's open source solution with Ribbit voice apps. Sugared Frog allows users to organize their voicemail, and dictate notes and memos right from their mobile phones.

Save A Life won the "Social Networking and Communication" prize by creating an Adobe AIR app that allows you to quickly reach a group of friends or community members by phone. Currently, the application focuses on blood donations, though the program could be used for other donation campaigns or emergency services as well.

CYHAA won the "Breakthrough" category. CYHAA, which stands for Control Your Home, Anytime, Anywhere allows users to control their smart home devices with their voice right from their phones.

Verizon and AT&T: No, Thank You, to Stimulus Funds

Verizon Communications Inc. and AT&T might very well pass on applying for any of the "broadband stimulus" programs, at least in part because of "strings" attached to the money.

Neither company is well placed to apply for the Rural Utilities Service portion of the funds targeted at rural areas, and access provisions might be unpalatable for the National Telecommunications & Information Administration grants. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aXx.QVEa9vpM&refer=home

More Wireless Broadband Substitution Coming?

It is no idle speculation to consider that more users will look at wireless broadband substitution as downlink speeds rise into the 50 to 60 Mbps range in the near future. And Verizon might be thinking along those lines itself, though mobile providers without wired assets to cannibalize have been more aggressive, so far.

There is speculation Verizon will introduce such a router at CTIA this week.

http://www.phonearena.com/htmls/Verizons-MiFi-2200-is-your-own-personal-Hotspot-article-a_4570.html

Zer01 Plays the "Interconnecting Carrier" Angle

Some observers might wonder how the new mobile service created by Zer01 is different from existing applications that provide VoIP calling over a mobile handset. Recently, Skype for Apple iPhones has gotten lots of attention, for example.

“I do not really see any comparison to the Zer01 value add here,” says Mark Richards, Pervasip CIO. Pervasip provides the underlying network, billing and customer care for the Zer01 effort.

The Skype calling feature uses a Wi-Fi connection, not the AT&T data network, and can require per-minute calling charges, where Zer01 uses an IP wide area network and a GSM wireless network for access.

And Richards argues there is a difference between an downloaded application running on top of a mobile operating system, and a native application. “To run VoIP over GSM is stodgy,” Richards says. “It is not simple.”

One problem is that the downloaded app is always contending for processor resources. To run a VoIP path on top of the OS, rather than natively on the phone, compression and decompression is required, and that uses processor resources.

Calling gateways is more complex, so there is some kind of inconvenience, he argues. “I have not yet seen a seamless desktop process that really changes habits,” says Richards.

United Technologies Group has developed a mobile application that seamlessly sits on the cell phone and takes over a phone’s dial pad by replacing it with its own, Richards notes.

The other great confusion is over the business model. To date, many firms that do not own their own mobile networks have operated as mobile virtual network operators, leasing wireless capacity and services on a wholesale basis, and then selling at retail.

Those of you familiar with the “unbundled network element-provisioned” (UNE-P) model will see the similarity. An MVNO or UNE-P reseller essentially is engaging in price arbitrage.

The difference here is that Pervasip is a licensed carrier. It has the legal right of interconnection with other carriers. So Zer01 essentially and simply interconnects with GSM mobile providers around the world. It is not a reseller of their services.

Private Interests, Public Purposes

For every public purpose, there is a corresponding private interest.

http://arstechnica.com/telecom/news/2009/03/microsoft-broadband-stimulus-should-help-hospital-schools.ars

VoIP Revenue Will Grow 20% in 2009, IBISWorld Says

Telecommunications and internet related services are now so ingrained in the daily lives of businesses and consumers that they will hold up relatively well compared to other areas of the economy, say analysts at IBISWorld.

"One shining light will be VoIP, which competes on price against more established service providers," the firm says. "Consumer substitution from wired telecommunications to VoIP will accelerate but a weaker economy and lack of available finance will result in many smaller VoIP providers exiting the industry."

VOIP revenue is expected to grow 20.1 percent in 2009.

http://www.ibisworld.com/recession2009/default.aspx

Wireless Providers to Collaborate on Marketing "Best Practices"

The Mobile Marketing Association says the four largest U.S. wireless service providers--Verizon Wireless, AT&T, Sprint, and T-Mobile USA-- have agreed to coordinate their mobile marketing guidelines with the MMA’s "best practices" guidelines. This industry-first agreement is intened to produce a dramatic reduction in the costs of launching mobile marketing campaigns, faster time to market for campaigns and improved consumer satisfaction by improving the consistency and efficiency of mobile marketing campaigns across the four major U.S. wireless service providers.

In addition to the four largest U.S. wireless service providers, major aggregators, brands and content owners includingVeriSign, Neustar, Limbo, and Thumbplay are supporting the process.

The agreement is expected to enhance efficiencies in running short code programs, accelerate the time to market for mobile campaigns, ensure monitoring programs and audit results are more consistent and reduce operational costs across the mobile marketing ecosystem.

http://www.mmaglobal.com/news/mobile-marketing-association-brokers-industry’s-first-cross-carrier-best-practices-verizon-wire

Cox Communications Plans CDMA, LTE Networks

Cox Cummunications is moving ahead with its plans to build an in-region moble broadband network using CDMA, the same platform used by Verizon Wireless and Sprint Nextel. Cox is said to be thinking more along the lines of Long Term Evolution for its fourth-generation network.

Huawei Technologies Co. says it has been selected to provide its end-to-end CDMA solutions and services to Cox Communications. Cox, the third-largest cable provider in the United States, will launch its new 3G wireless network utilizing Huawei’s LTE-ready SingleRAN solution and industry-leading 3900 Series base stations, Huawei says.

Cox might rely on its partnership with Clearwire or Sprint for out-of-region roaming. As Sprint's national network uses CDMA, it makes sense to rely on the Sprint network rather than WiMAX for out of region coverage.

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=174434&site=cdn

Addressing "Sustainability" of NTIA Broadband Stimulus Projects

The problem many applicants must face in crafting projects under the National Telecommunications & Information Administration portion of the American Recovery & Reinvestment Act ("stimulus bill") are the conflicting objectives.

The "broadband stimulus" portion of the ARRA is supposed to create jobs. Broadband is almost a secondary objective. The projects are supposed to have "measurable" goals. But economists aren't sure whether new broadband facilities actually create--or destroy--jobs.

All funds awarded under the NTIA program must be spent in two years, so are temporary, but the ARRA ideally expects "sustainability" of the projects once federal funding ends.

Nobody yet knows what "under-served" means, so many projects might actually be proposed in areas where there are two wired services providers as well as two satellite providers, plus three mobile broadband providers. Lots of people are "under-served" not because of lack of access to facilities but for some other reason: lack of interest, lack of knowledge, equipment or money.

Most people think the Rural Utilities Service portion of the program will address rural areas. But an argument can be made for rural programs under the NTIA rules that actually have a route to "sustainability" and "job creation" on a permanent basis.

That route is funding rural call center operations. NTIA funds can be used to create facilities, either "at home" or perhaps at new call center facilities, with monies used to train rural residents.

The sustainability of the jobs and connectivity once the NTIA funding runs out are provided by the call center operations. Since NTIA projects have a stated preference for education and job creation, proposals should be submitted by community colleges and state job training agencies, in conjunction with service providers that can provide the connectivity and equipment.

The objective would be to deliver a turnkey "call center" capability ready to be used by any firm requiring such capabilities.  It's a thought.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=100739283

Long Tail Yes, But Perhaps Not What You Were Expecting

In recent years much has been made of the implications of the "long tail" theorem, the notion that digital technology, digital goods and the Internet make possible a vast shift of commerce from the few large firms in any category to many hundreds to thousands of other firms.

Search market share indicates that the basic underlying theorem, the Pareto Principle, commonly understood as the "80/20" rule, does indeed operate.

But not in the ways some might predict. There is a search long tail, with four providers at the head of the curve, and then several score other smaller providers forming the tail.

Unfortunately, it does not appear that market share is much different from what might predict for physical goods. In search, as elsewhere in life, 20 percent of providers have 80 percent of the market share. In this case, a few percent of providers have 99 percent share.

http://www.altsearchengines.com/2009/03/27/the-top-30-alternative-search-engines-by-market-share/