Apple iPhone Demand Seen Exploding

ChangeWave's latest smart phone survey of 4,028 consumers shows an "explosive transformation" occurring in consumer demand, suggesting some major new mobile handset winners and losers for second half 2010.

Changewave says its latest survey shows the strongest interest in smartphones ever recorded in a Changewave survey. But there's a significant change within that demand pattern: Apple and HTC devices are getting strong demand at the expense of Motorola and Research in Motion.

The future buying plans suggest coming huge moves upward for Apple and HTC, with a whopping 52 percent of respondents who plan to buy a smart phone in the next 90 days saying they'll get an Apple iPhone.

It also appears that Android demand has shifted to HTC and away from Motorola.

Explosive Changes in Consumer Demand Shake Up Smart Phone Industry

Net Neutrality Issues for Google in Search?

Network neutrality proponents implicitly assume that the key bottleneck, in terms of innovation or competition, is to be found in the broadband access connection, and the way such connections are managed.

It now appears that antitrust regulators in Europe have begun to look at other potential bottlenecks, and search practices already are getting a look, the Financial Times reports. Google's purchase (or planned purchase, as there might be antitrust review) of ITA Software, a travel technology company, is not going to help.

Joaquin Almunia, Europe’s top competition official, already has hinted that European Community regulators are taking Google’s search power seriously. An informal review of search practices already is underway, and seems to be getting more pointed attention now, given the growing issues regulators now seem to be detecting in the mobile content space.

Google has powerful competitors who will not be shy about adding their concerns, and U.S. regulators have been paying more attention to both Google and Apple of late.

The point is that gatekeepers might exist at potentially multiple levels in the Internet business ecosystem, and raising the issue in one area seems to be raising issues in other areas as well.

FT.com / Media - Net neutrality comes back to haunt Google

Mobile App Stores Shorten Time to Market and Time to Payment

Mobile app stores have shortened "time to market" for mobile apps, especially compared to older distribution methods such as placement directly on mobile phones.

Mobile app stores also mean developers get paid faster, according to Telefonica.

iPhone 4 recall would cost $1.5 billion

A full product recall of the iPhone 4, though highly unlikely, would cost Apple $1.5 billion, or 3.5 percent of its total cash on hand, says Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi.

Apple could issue a free rubber bumper case with each phone. Although Apple charges $29 at retail for the rubber cases, Bernstein estimates that giving them away to iPhone 4 customers would cost the company $1 per unit.

Analyst: iPhone 4 recall would cost $1.5 billion | Circuit Breaker - CNET News

Mobile Users 45% More Interested In Local Search

Perhaps it is intuitive, but users on mobile devices are 45 percent more likely to enter a local search query than users on non-mobile devices, according to data from online advertising network Chitika.

Chitika’s research division came to this conclusion after breaking down a sample of more than 24 million impressions.

Local search and mobile search do seem highly correlated.

Mobile Users 45% More Interested In Local than Non-Mobile – Chitika Research

Odds the iPhone 4 be Recalled

About 4:6 odds a full mechanical recall will be issued in 2010, oddsmaker says. Odds a full mechanical recall will not be issued by Apple in 2010 are 11:10.

Will the iPhone 4 be recalled? Betting from Paddy Power

Apple's iPad Is Going To Destroy The Netbook Market, Says Goldman Sachs

Whether you believe the tablet PC is a substitute for, or a complement to, a netbook, it does seem clear that a tablet's function is different.

The iPad is focused squarely on information consumption versus information production, analysts at Goldman Sachs note. A device that looks like “just a big screen” suggests what users should do with the device: consume information, with limited ability to manipulate it.

The lack of a physical keyboard suggests that the primary purpose of the device is not for inputting large amounts of information, but instead selecting among options, or performing light editing using a soft keyboard, the analysts suggest.

If that is the case, a key element of the experience will be relatively tight integration with content sources. 

I'm not so sure the netbook is destined by be replaced by tablet devices, though it seems obvious that if the reason lots of people carry netbooks or notebooks is simply to consume information and content, that will be the case.

For users who still have to "work" and create content, a tablet simply isn't going to be a viable choice.

Apple's iPad Is Going To Destroy The Netbook Market, Says Goldman (Sorry, Microsoft):

Apple Makes More Profit Than All the Rest of the Handset Industry

Since getting into the mobile handset business with its iPhone, Apple has blown away the whole rest of the handset industry in earnings (before interest and taxes), according to a new  analysis by Goldman Sachs analysts.

The other angle is that the rest of the suppliers have lost earnings momentum  precisely as Apple has grown.

At the moment, Apple likely accounts for about 58 percent of the mobile handset industry's annual earnings.

That's shocking, and a measure of Apple's new stature.

76% of Users Prefer Ad-Supported Apps to Paid

Users always have had a complicated relationship with advertising. If you ask them, they typically will say they "don't like ads."

But if you ask them whether they would like access to a desired type of content, for free or at vastly-reduced prices because of the presence of ads, they will tend to opt for the advertising.

That appears to be true for 76 percent of smartphone owners with web access, who say they would rather have access to ad-supported applications for no additional cost, rather than pay for them, Jiwire has found.

see the survey results here

Why Google Isn't Good at Social Apps Yet

The kind of application that Google knows how to make well are the kind that serve a utilitarian function. Google's search engine excels at allowing users to search for something, consume, and move onto the next thing.

Google so far does not excel at applications that are by their nature designed for "hanging around."

Can Google Figure Out How to Appeal to Lobsters As Well As Pandas?

PR Experts: iPhone 4 Hardware Recall Is “Inevitable”

Some now believe Apple will be forced to recall the iPhone 4 because of hardware defects related to its antenna design.

“Apple will be forced to do a recall of this product,” said Professor Matthew Seeger, an expert in crisis communication. "This is potentially devastating.”

That seems a bit of hyperbole. Every smartphone I can think of has some issues. Sure, users might have to adjust the way they hold their devices, or add a bumper. Users of other devices need to make adjustments to account for battery life, presence or absence of a keyboard, the size of their fingers and lots of other small adjustments. Some people use the speakerphone function whenever possible, or simply limit the number or length of calls to limit brain exposure to emitted radio frequency energy.

The iPhone 4 reception issue is not hazardous to health. The device does not fall apart. It is not perfect, but what device actually is "perfect" on every measure? As the Eagles song goes: "Get over it."

PR Experts: iPhone 4 Hardware Recall Is “Inevitable” | Cult of Mac

Slow Recovery Ahead for Total Media Ad Spending

Online ad spending will grow while traditional advertising channels will remain stagnant or decline, says eMarketer.

Marketers who turned to digital for its effectiveness and measureability in tough times will continue to appreciate those qualities as budgets go up, and with the world’s population spending more and more time with digital media, dollars will follow eyeballs, eMarketer predicts.

One also wonders whether the greater efficiency of online and mobile formats also is having some effect. Advertisers might reason they can achieve their objectives even while reducing overall spending.

Slow Recovery Ahead for Total Media Ad Spending - The eMarketer Blog

Skype Blocks Fring Video Calls

Commercial disputes in the communications business are not uncommon. Now fring says it has been forced to stop its four years of Skype interconnectivity following threat of legal action by Skype.

The apparent reason is fring’s recent launch of mobile video calling on the Apple iPhone 4.

www.fring.com - Following fring’s string of mobile video calling wins - Skype blocks fring

Google SEO Includes "Human" Ranking

Some people might be worried about whether Google can, does, or might be tempted to manipulate search rankings in ways that favor its own business interests. But every search engine has to use some specific algorithms to attempt to assess "quality" and "relevance" of content found on the Web.

All of which has spurred a rather-robust search engine optimization business, with a sort of constant "cat and mouse" game between the keepers of search algorithms and content providers who try to come up with legitimate, perhaps sometimes questionable methods of "gaming" the Google search algorithms.

"There’s good SEO, allowing people to get to more relevant content,” says Google’s Amit Singhal, an engineer who works on the algorithms, according to the Financial Times.

“Sometimes people do shitty things and sometimes our algorithms are fooled,” he said. That appears to be one reason why Google says it does use some human oversight as part of its overall system.

Given the potential for some abuse, that's likely a necessary and legitimate undertaking. Algorithms are precise, people are fuzzy. Sometimes adding a little human fuzziness might be a good thing, producing more-valuable search returns.

The potential for mischief, real or imagined, will always exist. But that's why markets and competition are so important. Too much mischief should lead to less-useful results, which will lead users to switch to rival search applications. It might not be a perfect system, but it is hard to imagine any other better set of safeguards.

FT.com / FT series / In depth - Groups magnify chances of Google hits

HTC: Carry a Spare Battery

Sprint Nextel Chief Executive Officer Dan Hesse has a solution for his carrier’s Evo 4G’s infamous battery drain: Carry a spare, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Before you dismiss the idea, consider that a spare, original manufacture HTC Evo battery runs between $25 and $40 online. Those of you who have purchased spare batteries for other smartphones, that might seem a bit steep, but bigger screens and heavy Web use will drain any battery fairly quickly.

In fairness, users who want longer battery life should buy devices with much-smaller screens, and then not use mobile Web features unnecessarily. Battery advances do not occur at the same rate as changes in processor and memory, so the advent of larger screens and mobile Web usage is simply going to be a bigger issue.

Lots of us use, or have used, devices with much-smaller screens, as well as devices more typically used primarily for voice and texting. Battery life is longer on such devices, period. In phone technology, as with other devices, there are trade offs.

The HTC Evo's battery life is noticeably shorter than many would like. That's the price of the bigger screen, for the most part. Would I be willing to trade down to a smaller screen? No. But I routinely carry two mobiles, one primarily for voice, the HTC for Web apps. So in a sense I alrady carry a spare battery.