Google: 44 Percent Of Searches For Last-Minute Holiday Gifts Will Be Mobile

Google now predicts, based on the past two years worth of data, that in the upcoming 2011 Christmas and holiday shopping season, “44 percent of total searches for last minute gifts and store locator terms will be from mobile devices."

That's a fairly staggering prediction. Google believes that 44 percent of all searches for the gift shopping purpose will be generated by smart phones. There are some potential implications for mobile advertisers, who will have to compete for limited screen real estate.

But the findings also are illustrative for the broader trend of mobile use for real-world shopping activities. That has implications for use of mobile coupons, location-based check-ins and offers and mobile wallet applications, even in advance of a widespread shift to use of mobile payment services.

One of the clear "big trends" now is that mobile and online applications and features increasingly are being applied to offline commerce. 

44 Percent Of Searches For Last-Minute Holiday Gifts Will Be Mobile

Search Results Follow Market Share Rules

Many years ago, I learned that there are fairly reliable relationships between market share and profitability. Basically, the rule is that the number-one provider in any market has twice the market share of provider number two, which in turn has twice the share of provider number three. It's a remarkably useful rule of thumb.

A new examination by Chitika, looking at the value of Google search results, ranked by share, is remarkably consistent with those rules of thumb about market share.

As it turns out, the number-one search result tends to get double the traffic of the number-two result. The Chitika data also shows that search result three has 11.4 percent share, while the number-four result has eight percent share. That's pretty close to what the rule of thumb would suggest.

If the number one result has 34 percent share, the rule would predict the second result to be 17 percent, which is precisely what Chitika found. The rule also would suggest result three would have 8.5 percent share. In the Chitika data, the third search result has 11 percent share. The fourth result has eight percent share, as the rule suggests would be the pattern.

In search results, as in other markets, share makes a huge difference. The other thing you might recognize is a standard Pareto distribution, sometimes known as a "long tail" or 80/20 rule.

Rules of thumb can be excellent guides to strategy, if a company really wants to lead a market. It's also nice to know that at least some things one learns in school turn out to be correct in real life. 

The Value of Google Result Positioning | Chitika Insights

Google Unveils Instant Mobile Search

Google Instant is a new search enhancement that shows results as users type. Google's key technical insight was that people type slowly, but read quickly, typically taking 300 milliseconds between keystrokes, but only 30 milliseconds (a tenth of the time!) to glance at another part of the page.

The most obvious change is that users should get to the right content much faster than before because they don’t have to finish typing a full search term, or even press “search.” Another shift is that seeing results as one types helps people formulate a better search term by providing instant feedback. Users can adapt their searches on the fly until the results match exactly what they want. 

Google Instant can save 2 seconds to 5 seconds per search, Google estimates. The new algorithms also will make smarter predications about what any user might be looking for. 

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Google Unveils Instant Mobile Search

Google Instant is a new search enhancement that shows results as users type. Google's key technical insight was that people type slowly, but read quickly, typically taking 300 milliseconds between keystrokes, but only 30 milliseconds (a tenth of the time!) to glance at another part of the page.

The most obvious change is that users should get to the right content much faster than before because they don’t have to finish typing a full search term, or even press “search.” Another shift is that seeing results as one types helps people formulate a better search term by providing instant feedback. Users can adapt their searches on the fly until the results match exactly what they want. 

Google Instant can save 2 seconds to 5 seconds per search, Google estimates. The new algorithms also will make smarter predications about what any user might be looking for. 

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Mobile Users 45% More Interested In Local Search

Perhaps it is intuitive, but users on mobile devices are 45 percent more likely to enter a local search query than users on non-mobile devices, according to data from online advertising network Chitika.

Chitika’s research division came to this conclusion after breaking down a sample of more than 24 million impressions.

Local search and mobile search do seem highly correlated.

Mobile Users 45% More Interested In Local than Non-Mobile – Chitika Research

Apple Wants to Replace, Not Compete, in Search

Apple CEO Steve Jobs says his company will not take on Google in the search business. That's a bit of legalese, one might argue. Apple does not so much want to compete in search as to make it irrelevant in a mobile context.

"Competing" implies one wishes to win something. "Displacing and replacing " is more like what Apple wants to do.

Many of Apple’s 200,000 app downloads, for example, are simply shortcuts to the web which eliminates the need for Google’s search functions.

Apple already competes against Google in the mobile phone, mobile advertising and operating systems areas, and soon there will be competition from Google in the music and mobile apps arenas as well.

Apple Says It Will Not Take On Google In Search, But It Already Has – 24/7 Wall St.

Google Adds "Nearby" Function for Search

Location has become an important part of the way we search, the Google Blog says, in something of an understatement.

"Simply put, location changes everything," Wired technology writer Mat Honan has said. That might be an exaggeration, but one intuitively can sense the potential to change behavior in the real world, if people easily can ascertain what is around them.

The key for marketers is to understand what kinds of information people want when they're tied to a certain place. One analogy might be that search solved the "what is" problem. Social networking provides a "who" context filter. Location awareness changes the "where" context.

In the early going, people are going to experiment with retail location offers. just as in the early days of the World Wide Web companies put up brochures online. But as the Web moved from static to active, interactive and real-time applications, so will the use of "location" features.

One might say the shift is from manually searching for "what is around me" to having that information show up automatically, without having to ask. Promotions and advertising will be important, but so will new applications that relate to where a person is, right now.

That might mean on-the-spot offers for travelers waiting to board a flight, missed connection options, or seat upgrade information.

"If you're a foodie looking for restaurant details, food blogs or the closest farmer's market, location can be vital to helping you find the right information," Google says. "Starting today, we've added the ability to refine your searches with the 'Nearby' tool in the 'Search Options' panel.

The search process also has been revised, Google says. If "Minneapolis" is the query, results will be returned for "St. Paul" or "Twin Cities," as well as "Minneapolis."

What Users Do on the Mobile Web

About 29 percent of mobile phone users logged on to the mobile Web at least once per month in 2009, up from 22 percent in 2008, say researchers at Marketer.

So what do those people use the mobile Web? About 19 percent search for local products and services. About 16 percent say they get information about movies and entertainment.

About 13 percent get information about restaurants and bars. Some 11 percent search fro products or services outside the immediate local area.

About four percent made a purchase of a physical items that had to be shipped, while three percent used a mobile coupon.

According to BIA/Kelsey and ConStat, many of those qualify as “heavy” users—those who go online via mobile more than 10 times each week. BIA/Kelsey and ConStat say heavy mobile Internet users represent about 21 percent of the total U.S. mobile population in October 2009, up from less than 15 percent a year earlier. And the overall average number of monthly mobile Web sessions has doubled in that time period.

Heavy users of text messaging and mobile e-mail have also increased over the past year. Nearly one half of mobile users text more than 10 times weekly, while 20 percent send and receive more than 10 mobile emails each week.

Non-local product searches seem not be as prevalent as local searches, which about 20 percent of users report they did in the last month.

Basically, consumers have doubled their use of the mobile platform for non-voice communications,” says Rick Ducey, BIA/Kelsey chief strategy officer.

58% Local Search Growth in 2008

Local search, using online search tools to find local businesses, products, or services, grew 58 percent in 2008, reaching an annual total of 15.7 billion searches, says comScore. By comparison, overall core U.S. Web searches grew 21 percent year-over-year, nearing 137 billion searches by the end of 2008.

About 75 percent of the top 100 keywords searched on Internet Yellow Pages sites were non-branded, indicating that a majority of consumers have not decided on a specific company or product brand when they begin their search, comScore says.

Nearly half (45 percent) of Internet Yellow Pages and local online directory searchers made an online purchase in the fourth quarter of 2008.

One wonders whether Google Maps and mobile Web access have at least something to do with the growth. Local search makes much more sense when one is out of the home or office, and Google Maps, with or without global positioning satellite support, makes it really easy to search for something one needs, where one is at the moment.

The other angle is that small businesses, which operate locally, now are investing more heavily in Web sites, which would allow them to be found more easily.

http://www.marketingcharts.com/interactive/local-search-grows-58-outpaces-overall-online-search-8929/?utm_campaign=rssfeed&utm_source=mc&utm_medium=textlink

http://www.marketingcharts.com/interactive/smbs-poised-to-triple-website-spending-8894/

Vertical Search Salvation?

It appears lots of online publishers think vertical search is one way to survive the Google assault and prop up their walled gardens. It's too early to tell. It won't hurt. Not so clear to me that it helps much.

48% Increase in Local Online Ad Spending This Year

Borrell Associates expects a 48 percent increase in local online ad spending in 2008, bringing spending to $12.6 billion. Local search and online video advertising will drive much of the activity, Borrell says.

Local search advertising will more than double to $5 billion, while locally placed online video will triple to almost $1.3 billion.

A major component of local video advertising will be long-form pieces for home, automotive and health-related categories, the firm argues.

Most yellow pages publishers, cable companies, newspapers, radio stations and TV stations are still pinning their hopes on their traditional sales reps being able sell online ad packages. But local sales entities might have to create separate online-only sales forces to get the job done.

Most sales entities face the same problem: it is tough to grow sales for new lines of business when those new lines represent a small percentage of the overall sales opportunity and might even cannibalize the existing business.