Friday, February 4, 2011
Apple iPhone From AT&T or Verizon?
Walt Mossberg takes a look at the devices and the networks.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
The Way "Disrupters" Think
I recently had an instructive conversation with a colleague I hadn't actually seen for more than a year, that amply illustrates how would-be "market disrupters" think. Keep in mind that "disruptors" have different business objectives than traditional executives might. A conventional approach might have companies N+1 and N+2 entering a market lead by company N because N+1 and N+2 believe they can take significant market share away from N.
Venture capitalists might fund company N+1 because the firm has technology that is 10 times better than that of company N that leads the market.
But here's another way of looking at the matter. There is an existing market worth 100x revenue and 300y usage. Disruptor firm N+1 has a business plan aimed at boosting usage to 400y but shrinking revenue to 10x. N+1 will do well because it will get a share of the 10x where N+1 now has no revenue.
N+1 knows it does not have to take share in the traditional way to disrupt the market, any more than Skype had to take away much existing international long distance to affect pricing across the entire market. N+1 simply has to gain enough recognition as a viable supplier, with dramatically-lower retail pricing, in the customer base.
The difference is in the notion of "growing" a market compared to "destroying" a market.
Venture capitalists might fund company N+1 because the firm has technology that is 10 times better than that of company N that leads the market.
But here's another way of looking at the matter. There is an existing market worth 100x revenue and 300y usage. Disruptor firm N+1 has a business plan aimed at boosting usage to 400y but shrinking revenue to 10x. N+1 will do well because it will get a share of the 10x where N+1 now has no revenue.
N+1 knows it does not have to take share in the traditional way to disrupt the market, any more than Skype had to take away much existing international long distance to affect pricing across the entire market. N+1 simply has to gain enough recognition as a viable supplier, with dramatically-lower retail pricing, in the customer base.
The difference is in the notion of "growing" a market compared to "destroying" a market.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
"End of Profit" for Mobile Service Providers in 4 Years?
Mobile service providers in developed regions of North America, Asia, Pacific and Western Europe markets could face they are no longer profitable in about four years, according to a new study by Tellabs.
Researchers looked at mobile service provider financial performance across the globe, and the fact that the study is called "The End of Profit" should tell you most of what you need to know about the fundamental trend.
See a summary here..
The study shows that widely-held industry beliefs about rising costs and falling revenues are correct. If the trends assumed in the model do not change significantly, if the assumptions are correct, and if service providers do not change, carriers in each region can expect to see an end of profit within a four year window.
That bears repeating. In the absence of relatively significant changes, mobile service provides, arguably in a better position than fixed-line providers to capture growth, will cease to be profitable within four years. The median expectation is that U.S. mobile service providers will reach "zero profitability" by the fourth quarter of 2013.
Service providers in developed nations in the Asia and Pacific region could reach zero profitability by the third quarter of 2014.
In certain regions, this point could be reached much sooner, Tellabs believes. It is clear that carriers are facing significant challenges in balancing cost and revenue. Mobile service providers in Western Europe could reach zero profitability by the first quarter of 2015.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Western operators should position mobile broadband as a complement to fixed broadband, not a substitute, says Analysys Mason - Press releases - News | Analysys Mason
Attempts to sell mobile broadband as an alternative to fixed broadband are likely to fail in European and U.S. markets because there is a strong, and correct, perception among consumers that mobile broadband is slower, less reliable and more expensive than fixed broadband, say researchers at Analysys Mason.
Where consumers have a choice between fixed and mobile broadband, mobile broadband should not be sold as the primary means of access, but as a complement. This is based on the findings of the Connected Consumer survey 2, a study of the telecoms and media activities of 6000 consumers across Europe and the United States.
More than 70 percent of respondents who expressed an opinion agreed with statements that mobile broadband was slower, less reliable and more expensive than fixed broadband.
More than 70 percent of respondents who expressed an opinion agreed with statements that mobile broadband was slower, less reliable and more expensive than fixed broadband.
Customers are also becoming increasingly happy with their fixed broadband service. Of respondents who said they were not interested in mobile broadband, 72 percent said it was because they are happy with their fixed service (up from 65 percent last year).
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Consumers Will Pay for Quality-Enhanced Service: Too Bad U.S. Consumers Can't Buy It
More than 60 percent of 2,000 consumers polled n the United Kingdom, France, Germany and United States are now ready and willing to pay for a higher quality of experience. About 74 percent of respondents who are willing to pay for a higher QoE said that they are prepared to spend more money for faster download speeds as well. Oddly enough, U.S. consumers might not be able to buy those sorts of features, though it appears consumers in most other countries will be able to.
The reason is the Federal Communications Commissions "network neutrality" rules, which forbid such services outright on fixed connections, and are for the moment more lenient about mobile features, but which ultimately are likely to be harmonized with the fixed network rules.
The survey was sponsored by Comptel Corporation, a provider of operations support system software. Read more here..
About 61 percent of respondents indicated that they want their communications service providers to offer service and price plans that are based on their individual broadband consumption habits. At the same time, consumers want these plans to be simpler; more than 80 percent of respondents prefer to have just one bill or data plan that covers all of their broadband access needs, across networks and devices.
"Eighty-seven percent of consumers see QoE as the driver that will influence their allegiance to their CSP, and the majority of them would not only move but also pay more money for faster and personalized services," said Ms. Arnhild Schia, senior vice president, global alliances and strategic marketing, Comptel. "This consumer-driven demand for a better mobile broadband experience is a tremendous revenue opportunity for CSPs. Policy and charging control can help them optimise QoE-smoothing data usage more evenly across their networks, while dynamically adapting and simplifying service bundles based on individual customers' wants or needs, and introducing progressive pricing strategies that monetise this consumer demand."
About 66 percent of the consumers surveyed in the U.K., France and U.S. reported accessing the Internet most frequently from smartphones. An exception was Germany, where laptop dongles were the most popular mobile broadband-enabled device, with 56 percent of consumers utilising them.
About 58 percent of respondents already have two or more broadband connections, and of those, four percent have four or more connections.
Consistency in terms of quality of service, more flexible service and price options and unlimited data download plans are bigger issues in the U.K., France and Germany, respectively, than anywhere else. Almost a third of U.S. respondents said that improvements were needed all round.
Given access to unlimited broadband, regardless of location and cost, more than half of respondents would use the extra bandwidth to watch more online TV, especially in France. In the U.S., respondents reported a preference to staying more connected to family and friends.
The reason is the Federal Communications Commissions "network neutrality" rules, which forbid such services outright on fixed connections, and are for the moment more lenient about mobile features, but which ultimately are likely to be harmonized with the fixed network rules.
The survey was sponsored by Comptel Corporation, a provider of operations support system software. Read more here..
About 61 percent of respondents indicated that they want their communications service providers to offer service and price plans that are based on their individual broadband consumption habits. At the same time, consumers want these plans to be simpler; more than 80 percent of respondents prefer to have just one bill or data plan that covers all of their broadband access needs, across networks and devices.
"Eighty-seven percent of consumers see QoE as the driver that will influence their allegiance to their CSP, and the majority of them would not only move but also pay more money for faster and personalized services," said Ms. Arnhild Schia, senior vice president, global alliances and strategic marketing, Comptel. "This consumer-driven demand for a better mobile broadband experience is a tremendous revenue opportunity for CSPs. Policy and charging control can help them optimise QoE-smoothing data usage more evenly across their networks, while dynamically adapting and simplifying service bundles based on individual customers' wants or needs, and introducing progressive pricing strategies that monetise this consumer demand."
About 66 percent of the consumers surveyed in the U.K., France and U.S. reported accessing the Internet most frequently from smartphones. An exception was Germany, where laptop dongles were the most popular mobile broadband-enabled device, with 56 percent of consumers utilising them.
About 58 percent of respondents already have two or more broadband connections, and of those, four percent have four or more connections.
Consistency in terms of quality of service, more flexible service and price options and unlimited data download plans are bigger issues in the U.K., France and Germany, respectively, than anywhere else. Almost a third of U.S. respondents said that improvements were needed all round.
Given access to unlimited broadband, regardless of location and cost, more than half of respondents would use the extra bandwidth to watch more online TV, especially in France. In the U.S., respondents reported a preference to staying more connected to family and friends.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
T-Mobile USA to Buy Clearwire Spectrum?
Deutsche Telekom AG’s T-Mobile USA unit, which badly needs new spectrum to build its own Long Term Evolution network, may be close to a deal to buy wireless spectrum from Clearwire Corp., Businessweek reports.
T-Mobile USA is the only potential bidder and the sale of the spectrum could happen by the end of the first quarter, Businessweek says. That there is only one bidder speaks to the lack of demand for the excess spectrum Clearwire wants to auction off.
T-Mobile USA is the only potential bidder and the sale of the spectrum could happen by the end of the first quarter, Businessweek says. That there is only one bidder speaks to the lack of demand for the excess spectrum Clearwire wants to auction off.
Also, T-Mobile USA has just activated an HSPA+ network that actually will run as fast, and in some cases faster, than other 4G networks. T-Mobile USA doesn't need the spectrum "immediately."
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Video Cord Cutting Now a Global Phenomenon
Informa estimates that there were 1.2 million "cord-cutters" who have canceled their multichannel video subscriptions in favor of over-the-top video alternatives in 2010, equivalent to just 0.18% of the multichannel video subscriber base. See more detail here.
"While the impact of cord-cutting on pay TV has been extremely limited to date, this will change as OTT services will continue to improve and become increasingly attractive," said Adam Thomas, Informa Telecoms & Media senior analyst.
The number of cord cutters will grow to 16.1 million in 2015, the firm says. That's about two percent of the total pay TV subscriber base," said Thomas.
There are about 426,000) video cord cutters in the United States, about 395,000 in Europe, 251,000 in the Asia and Pacific region and 113,000 in the rest of the world. It is possible that less developed markets could ultimately be most vulnerable to the allure of OTT, as several of these markets are characterized by higher broadband penetration than that of multichannel video service penetration.
"We are already seeing significant numbers of cord-cutters in China, as households are attracted away from cable and IPTV by OTT services such as Tudou and Youku," said Thomas.
Overall, Informa does not seem to expect a massive disruption of the linear video business anytime soon, despite the growing expectation in many quarters that this will be the case.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Motorola Inventory Management on a Mobile
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
People May Want to "Cut the Cord," But Can They?
An Experiment In Cord Cutting from Hill Holliday on Vimeo.
In the case of the "typical end user," video cord cutting seems to be more of a barrier than some might think.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
$25.6 Trillion Telecom Industry Revenue in 2016? Absolutely No Way
Insight Research predicts that wireless revenues will jump from 60 percent of all telecommunications services in 2008 to 72 percent in 2013, which amounts to a 14.4 percent compound annual growth rate.
Insight Research also apparently believes telecommunications services revenues on a worldwide basis will grow at a compounded rate of nine percent over the next five years, bringing the sum spent globally on telecommunications to $25.6 trillion, a figure that some will consider wildly optimistic. If one counts all sorts of activities that have some relationship to communications (voice and data), plus all video entertainment, plus the value of data networking services and products, one likely could get to a number that big. See http://www.zimbio.com/New+York+News/articles/rbJJYS2aT3r/Insight+Research+Worldwide+Telecom+Industry.
The Asia-Pacific region will experience the highest growth rate in the next five years, at nearly 16 percent, led by China and India. The telecom sector in Latin America and the Caribbean will grow by 12 percent.
Insight Research also apparently believes telecommunications services revenues on a worldwide basis will grow at a compounded rate of nine percent over the next five years, bringing the sum spent globally on telecommunications to $25.6 trillion, a figure that some will consider wildly optimistic. If one counts all sorts of activities that have some relationship to communications (voice and data), plus all video entertainment, plus the value of data networking services and products, one likely could get to a number that big. See http://www.zimbio.com/New+York+News/articles/rbJJYS2aT3r/Insight+Research+Worldwide+Telecom+Industry.
But service provider revenues will not reach anywhere close to that figure. Global telecom services revenue reached $1.5 trillion in 2006, for example. To the end of 2011, growth is projected to slow to a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2 percent. See http://www.prlog.org/11216402-global-telecom-market-status-and-forecast-2006-2011.html.
Assume for the sake of argument that the $1.5 trillion 2006 figure was correct. An eight-percent annual growth rate would result in global revenue of $2.2 trillion by the end of 2011. Or assume a baseline of $2 trillion in 2006, a figure that might be considered on the high side for that time period.
That would result in a global market of $2.9 trillion. I do not have access to the full methodology used by Insight Research, but the forecast of $25.6 trillion seems off by an order of magnitude, which means the researchers are including all sorts of other revenue streams arguably related to communications.
In fact, Insight Research's own 2009 forecast of global communications revenue projected "worldwide revenues are predicted to grow from under $1.7 trillion in 2008 to over $2.7 trillion in 2013." See http://www.insight-corp.com/ExecSummaries/review09ExecSum.pdf.
Research companies change methodologies from time to time. Obviously something major has changed in that regard. The new forecasts absolutely cannot reflect service provider revenues alone. But one might ask whether such major "lumping" of multiple revenue sources from multiple industries actually provides much analytical clarity.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Mobile Augmented Reality: A Small Business by 2015
Mobile augmented reality applications and services will generate global revenues close to $1.5 billion by 2015, according to Juniper Research.
Of course, to keep things in perspective, consider that global ad spending is something on the order of $500 billion. See http://adage.com/mediaworks/article?article_id=147493, for example.
The installed base of AR-capable smartphones had increased from eight million in 2009 to more than 100 million in 2010. At the same time, AR apps that initially were the preserve of smaller development companies and researchers at technological institutes, are starting to get some use from larger brands.
The installed base of AR-capable smartphones had increased from eight million in 2009 to more than 100 million in 2010. At the same time, AR apps that initially were the preserve of smaller development companies and researchers at technological institutes, are starting to get some use from larger brands.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Africa Mobile Advertising Grows19% Growth |in 90 Days
Mobile advertising views grew nearly 19 percent in just 90 days, says InMobi, breaking the three-billion impressions mark to reach 3.3 billion monthly impressions. Smartphones remain relatively nascent in the market, and 88 percent of all mobile ad impressions are on advanced feature phones.
Nokia strengthens its’ already dominant market position by gaining 2.7 share points. About two out of every three ad impressions in the region occur on Nokia devices.
Nokia strengthens its’ already dominant market position by gaining 2.7 share points. About two out of every three ad impressions in the region occur on Nokia devices.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
Phantom Data: How Big a Problem?
Phantom data usage being billed against customer accounts appears to be a growing problem.
Apple iPhones apparently have had the issue, a consultant study has found. Microsoft Windows Phone 7 users have complained of inexplicable data usage being charged to their cell data accounts. Microsoft tracked down the "phantom data" bug that they attributed to a third party.
Apple iPhones apparently have had the issue, a consultant study has found. Microsoft Windows Phone 7 users have complained of inexplicable data usage being charged to their cell data accounts. Microsoft tracked down the "phantom data" bug that they attributed to a third party.
Apple continues to remain silent and some customers of the iPhone in the U.S. and abroad continue to complain to their carriers about 'phantom data' usage.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
10 Common Misconceptions New Users Have About Skype
Skype has become, for many, one of the preferred modes of communication, particularly over long distances. For newer users, though, there are a few misconceptions. Here are 10 of those issues.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
66% of Enteprises Plan to Use Cloud Services in 2011
About 66 percent of 1,ooo enterprises who are customers of Ipswitch are making cloud computing investments in 2011. For security reasons, most are choosing either private cloud, or a hybrid public-private mix.
Not Planning Any Investment: Some 36 percent of respondents are not planning any cloud spending. About 29 percent will use a private cloud approach. Some 13 percent will use a public cloud approach (Amazon, Microsoft Azure or another computing infrastructure provider). About 21 percent will use a mix of public and private approaches.
Not Planning Any Investment: Some 36 percent of respondents are not planning any cloud spending. About 29 percent will use a private cloud approach. Some 13 percent will use a public cloud approach (Amazon, Microsoft Azure or another computing infrastructure provider). About 21 percent will use a mix of public and private approaches.
Gary Kim was cited as a global "Power Mobile Influencer" by Forbes, ranked second in the world for coverage of the mobile business, and as a "top 10" telecom analyst. He is a member of Mensa, the international organization for people with IQs in the top two percent.
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