Google has "Groupon" Options, Says Mayer

So long, broadband duopoly?

Analysts at the Federal Communications Commission appear to agree with forecasts that project 90 percent of the U.S. population is likely to have access to broadband networks capable of peak download speeds in excess of 50 Mbps as cable systems upgrade to DOCSIS 3.0. See http://www.broadband.gov/download-plan.

But FCC analysts also estimate that about 15 percent of the U.S. population is likely to be able to choose between two providers, both cable a telco. At first glance, this would seem to be a problem for most telcos other than Verizon.

If in fact a large percentage of the U.S. broadband customer base does decide to buy 50-Mbps services, or even faster services, many telcos are going to be at a huge disadvantage, if one assumes broadband access will be the foundation service for most telcos.

As necessity typically is the mother of invention, one wonders whether ways of using fiber-to-neighborhood networks will be capable of upgrading to speeds not possible so far, much as cable operators are working on new ways to boost their own broadband speeds. One should not discount the possibility, or the incentives for suppliers to come up with such solutions.

On the other hand, "headline" speeds, as important as they are for marketing purposes, might not necessarily correspond to consumer buying preferences in the near term, or even in the medium term. So far, few U.S. consumers have decided 50 Mbps access services were valuable enough to buy them, where such services are available.

If that remains the case, services offering 20 Mbps or 25 Mbps might be good enough, at least for the medium term, and urban fiber-to-neighborhood networks ought to be able to reach 40 Mbps, as Qwest already offers in Denver, for example.

Telcos with lower density serving areas and longer loop lengths will find it rather expensive to match that sort of speed using any hybrid network (fiber distribution, copper access). But much might hinge on the actual state of end user demand (willingness to pay).

Nor should observers think there is no more speed that can be wrung out of all-copper access networks. A reasonable way of putting matters is that additional copper pairs can be bonded to achieve higher speeds. There are technical issues, of course, ranging from availability of requisite pairs in existing cable, and interference issues within cables. But researchers already are working on ways to create higher-speed circuits by using more extensive bonding.

Oddly enough, the dwindling number of fixed-line voice circuits actually helps to some extent, as it frees up additional copper pairs, in some cases. It isn't easy, but sometimes extensive pair bonding will prove workable. Beyond that, the costs of fiber-to-customer infrastructure continue to improve, especially where either aerial plant or underground conduit are in place.

So it is not clear that cable's current advantages are of a permanent nature. That might be the case, in some areas and perhaps in many areas. But telco executives have powerful incentives not to concede the long-term future.

And since all observers now agree that the goal of 100 Mbps, within a decade, is the aspirational target the market likely will support, technologists and business planners will be looking at any number of solutions. At one level, the issue is technological: how can it be done? At an equally important level, the issue is how to match investment to expected revenues.

One might argue that with multiple 4G wireless networks and growing use of mobile devices, actual end user demand at fixed locations might not grow as rapidly as some forecast. A large number of fast, but not super-fast connections--both mobile and fixed--might well prove quite workable.

That doesn't mean telco planners can avoid the work of figuring how to pay for and build networks running up to 100 Mbps at some medium term point in the future. But the scaling might wind up being more graceful than people sometimes assume.

So long, broadband duopoly?

Does Anyone Want Super Fast Wireless Service? - 24/7 Wall St.

Lost in the excitement about 4G is whether anyone will want to use it, says Douglas McIntyre, 27/7wallst.com analyst.

Consumers will have to buy a new handset in most cases to use the new networks, and there are few 4G handsets to choose from, at the moment. That is one reason why mobile broadband for PCs typically is a lead application for new 4G networks.

If 4G adoption is anything like 3G adoption, it might take a while before people figure out how and why to use it. For the moment, wireless service providers have other motivations, such as lowering the cost to deliver mobile broadband to end users. For the moment, that will be enough.

There's plenty of time to figure out what new "killer" apps will drive 4G adoption.

Does Anyone Want Super Fast Wireless Service? - 24/7 Wall St.

28 Percent of Cable Subscribers Might Switch to Web Video

JP Morgan equity analyst Imran Khan says a recent survey he conducted suggests that 28 percent of people would consider "cutting the cord" and substituting broadband-Internet-delivered entertainment video in place of their current multichannel video service.

Perhaps significantly, those who report they might consider such a change include at least some potential switchers from the 16 percent of people who report they are not unhappy with their current video provider.

The data is another example of the consumer marketing dilemmas service providers face. You would not be surprised if people who are unhappy with their service say they might switch. But even "satisfied" customers seem to be willing to consider a switch.

In some ways, of course, the survey doesn't indicate as much real churn potential, in the near term, as you would think. The questions do not actually test for the attributes an over-the-top substitute would have to feature, ranging from content choices to price and whether the video can be watched on one or more in-home TVs.

It is easy to say one might "consider switching." It is quite another thing to "consider switching" at high prices, or for services that are not equivalent to current offerings in meaningful ways. Most consumers do not watch more than seven to a dozen channels. If those 12 are among the sources a consumer could get "over the top," at a perceived reasonable price, then switching behavior is much more likely to occur.

At some combination of value, price and ease of use, switching will happen.

28 Percent of Cable Subscribers Might Switch to Web Video - Survey

Sprint Declines Increased Clearwire Investment

Sprint Nextel let a Jan. 2, 2011 deadline pass without exercising its right to buy $760 million of Clearwire Corp convertible debt, ruling out that source of funding for Clearwire. It's a bit hard to tell what the decision means, beyond the obvious unwillingness on the part of Sprint to put more money into a venture that has become a source of tension.

Sprint already owns about 56 percent of Clearwire and uses its network to offer 4G services. Some might interpret the decision as a sign Sprint is not interested in buying the remainder of Clearwire. That might not necessarily be the case, though. If Sprint believes Clearwire will encounter difficulty, Sprint might be able to buy the remaining portions of the company for less money.

On the other hand, Sprint might have other ideas about where to deploy additional capital to support its 4G efforts. If Clearwire proceeds with its plans to sell off excess wireless spectrum, Sprint could purchase that spectrum and build its own LTE network.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0317604520110103

Apple Dominates Holiday Mobile App Installs

Apple had 61.5 percent of the mobile app downloads, Android had 30.1 percent, according to Flixter. About 7.9 percent of app downloads over the holidays went to RIM devices and Windows Phone had 0.5 percent. The percentages were from 1,027,000 downloads over the holiday week.

Flixter Tells How Mobile App Installs Went Over The Holidays. | VOIP IP Telephony

Best Buy to Launch "Buy Back" Program?

Best Buy is reported to be planning a new "buy back" program aimed at keeping users who constantly upgrade their smartphones off-cycle, and who buy from Best Buy Mobile. The program reportedly will cost $59.99 at the time of handset purchase. Between months one and six of handset ownership, users can then trade-in their device to Best Buy Mobile for 50 percent of the phones full retail value.

Between months six and 12 the device can be turned in for 40 percent of its original value. Between months 19 to 25, users can get back 20 percent of the original retail value.

The offering likely will appeal to users who purchase new smartphones long before their two-year commitments have expired.

read more here

28% Say They Plan to Buy a Kindle

Some 28 percent of Internet users surveyed by J.P. Morgan in December say they either own a Kindle or plan to buy one in the next year. That's a significant number, even if actual behavior doesn't exactly track expectations.

The Kindle is already Amazon's top-selling product, with an estimated more than five million sold since August, and with that kind of buyer intent, the e-reader will continue to be a hot item in 2011.

The survey also bolsters the claim of Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos that iPad owners are buying Kindles: 40 percent of iPad users surveyed already own one, and 23 percent plan to buy one in the next year.

See http://www.businessinsider.com/ipad-owners-are-buying-and-loving-kindles-too-says-amazon-ceo-2010-12.

Almost One-Third Of Internet Users Plan To Buy A Kindle

Is Media Industry at a Crossroads?

When investment capital floods into any industry, you can be sure it is because of expectations of major growth. Conversely, when such capital does not get deployed, you can be equally sure that investors are skeptical about outsize returns.

So it might be said that a lack of fresh investment in "Hollywood" ventures signals lack of expectations. Still, many would argue that the entertainment industry remains at a critical inflection point.

That game-changer is already here in the form of technological innovation: new media, web-based streaming and the hardware that is catching up to these virtual-era breakthroughs. But all of those developments might lead investors to conclude that fresh capital is better deployed in companies that try to harness new media, not the legacy content creators.

Calling Netflix or Huffpo: After 2010, Hollywood Needs a Game-Changer

TV apps will be key focus at CES 2011 - Lost Remote

While new tablets, smartphones and 3D television sets will grab much of the attention at the upcoming Consumer Electronics Show, perhaps another important theme will be the surge of internet-connected sets and TV apps.

“TV manufacturers see the opportunity to provide that content built in,” says Jason Oxman, senior vice president of the Consumer Electronics Association.

TV apps will be key focus at CES 2011

Apple Leads Smartphone Installed Base, Android Leads in Share

According to November data from The Nielsen Company, the popularity of the Android operating system among those who purchased a smartphone in the last six months (40 percent) makes it the leading OS in terms of market share, defined as new sales. Apple still leads in terms of installed base.

But despite its surge among recent acquirers, when it comes to overall installed base of users, Android OS (25.8 percent) is still behind Apple iOS (28.6 percent). RIM Blackberry’s position is less clear: Its share (26.1 percent) puts it within the margin of error of both Apple iOS and Android.

Apple Leads Smartphone Race, while Android Attracts Most Recent Customers | Nielsen Wire

10 Huge Companies That Facebook Is Now Worth More Than

Facebook's recent investment from Goldman Sachs gives it a valuation of $50 billion, which makes it bigger, in terms of valuation, than Starbucks.

Facebook is worth more than United, American, Delta, JetBlue, and Southwest Airlines combined (About $32 billion combined market cap.

Valuations are what they are. But comparisons like this remind me of the Internet bubble at the turn of the century. Scary.

10 Huge Companies That Facebook Is Now Worth More Than

Facebook Worth $50 Billion?

Facebook has raised $500 million from Goldman Sachs and a Russian investor in a deal that values the company at $50 billion, according to the New York Times.

The deal makes Facebook now worth more than companies like eBay, Yahoo and Time Warner.

Goldman Invests in Facebook at $50 Billion Valuation - NYTimes.com

Wi-Fi Could Drive VPN or Mobile Broadband Demand

Firesheep allows anyone with a Firefox browser to hijack the sessions of anyone on the same Wi-Fi network using a few dozen popular content, commerce, and social-networking sites by snarfing cookies that pass in the clear.

A virtual private network connection that encrypts all data is the most-secure form of protection, but most people don't buy such service, which retails for $40 to $70 a month. Beyond that, Secure Socket Layer protection for email and HTTPS Everywhere for web browsing are helpful.

If a user wants security, and is willing to pay $40 to $70 a month, some of us might say "why bother?" with Wi-Fi and just buy a mobile broadband service. All the other tools to protect email and web browsing are available no matter what the connection, and a mobile broadband connection is arguably more secure than any public Wi-Fi connection is.

How to stay safe at a public Wi-Fi hotspot

How Userful is Groupon?

How useful is Groupon, for people who aren't so attuned to the game of "finding deals?"

Amazon iHTC EVO Shift 4G is Coming

Touchscreen interfaces generally are well received by end users, but there are just some activities that seem to work better when a QWERTY keyboard also is available. So many users who might like the HTC Evo and other touchscreen devices might want to take a look at the HTC Evo Shift, which adds a keyboard.

Amazon is gearing up for sales already, though pre-orders apparently aren't possible, yet. Apparently devices will cost $200 when bundled with a two-year contract. And for those who prefer the no-contract route, the device will cost $500.

Amazon is teasing the yet to be officially announced HTC EVO Shift 4G

Why Use SIP Trunking?

Saving money and simplifying communications are the traditional reasons for adoting SIP trunking. The actual business cases tends to vary quite a lot, though, based on an organization's readiness to use IP telephony and the existing level of tariffs any organization already is paying.

SIP trunking eliminates the need to purchase dedicated ISDN gateways when a premises IP telephony system is connected to the wide area voice networks. In addition, the services more flexible in terms of use of "channels" and bandwidth.

Some will argue that eliminating overhead and processing improves performance. In practice, one doesn't hear end users mentioning that advantage very much. It normally comes down to "can you save me money?"

The Growth of SIP Trunking Solutions

9 Things Businesses Have Learned About Social Media

Someday, most businesses will use social media as they now embrace websites. Today, we are in the early stages of that transformation.

This is a reasonable summary of many of the issues organizations face only after they have started their social media programs, typically with Facebook or Twitter. Every organization experiments by adding new responsibilities to existing personnel.

Occasionally somebody gets "tasked" to do so, but almost always as an addition to existing duties. You can figure out what happens next. Organization executives are invited to help out, and that works for a little while, before the press of the business leads to waning participation.

Social media does not necessarily cost lots in terms of incremental out of pocket cost, But it takes time, and significant time if done properly.

In part, the generation of fresh content is part of the issue. A bigger issue is what happens when business partners or consumers actually start participating, or if an organization ramps up its optimization activities.

The other angle is that social media works best when lots of people within the organization are participating, and that can require a shift of organizational attitudes, support and practices that extend far beyond assigning somebody to "do it."

9 Things Businesses Have Learned About Social Media

Mobile Video Models Still Uncertain

It is easy to forget that Qualcomm, AT&T and Verizon have been offering subscription-based mobile TV since 2004, though the FloTV service will be shut down.

Some will argue that video subscriptions don't resonate with consumers, though cable operators and others tend to have a different view, suggesting that both on-demand access and subscription-based models have a role to play.

According to Yankee Group surveys, at the moment only 12 percent of smartphone users watch live TV through a service provided by a carrier, while 37 percent stream content through a Web site. That should not be surprising, since streaming from many websites, such as YouTube, is essentially "free." One might wonder why the percentage of mobile video usage is not even more skewed to "no incremental cost" sources, in fact.

When it comes to specific content consumers want, 58 percent of smartphone users buy or rent content through online stores and download it either directly to the smartphone or to their PC and transfer it to the smartphone.

That might be a more-important observation. Application-specific devices can succeed, of course. Personal navigation units and e-readers are examples. But Flo TV required a special-purpose device, though, and that might not match current user preferences for watching TV directly on smartphones.

With any content product, the availability of highly-desired content always matters. In addition to the apparent lack of interest in the Flot TV dedicated TV-viewing device, one might argue there were cost and choice issues as well.

Choice here meant that other devices could support video consumption, including iTunes matched with portable or mobile devices, plus availability on Flo TV of many content types users might have wanted, but could not get when using the service. Also, many users might have simply decided that existing game consoles, PCs and smartphones are reasonable substitutes for casual viewing.

Cost also might have been an issue. Few video subscription services aside from Netflix have gotten much traction, no matter which devices are used to support consumption

Yankee Group :: Research Report

Integrating Mobile with Existing Marketing Channels

Mobile doesn't make sense for any marketer if customers and prospects don't use the channel. But it is hard to argue with the proposition that just about everybody uses mobile these days, and more people are going to be using Web-enabled devices, meaning that more interactions with email and Web applications are going to be driven by mobile devices.

At the same time, there is little doubt that tablets now are becoming an established product category, meaning more overall usage will come from tablet devices that will offer different capabilities for marketers, both in terms of apps and apps using video and gaming.

Web analytics will inform a decision about how much mobile access a company's prospects and customers already are using.

If mobile visits are growing, consider optimizing a site for mobile. that generally includes advice such as removing JavaScript, Flash, ActiveX, and other proprietary technologies that might not support the mobile phone Web experience.

Site navigation can be tricky if it requires too many buttons and other "small" interface points.

Transaction-heavy sites might consider using WAP or smartphone applications that allow the user to complete regular transactions quickly and easily. The countervailing trend, though, is for heavier use of tablets. Tablets do not require such recrafting quite so much, with the salient exception that they encourage content consumption as well as mobile app access.

How Do You Integrate Mobile With B2B E-mail? | ClickZ