ZenithOptimedia has raised its forecast for Internet advertising to10.1 percent global growth globally in 2009, up from the 8.6 percent it predicted in April 2009. By 2011 ZenithOptimedia expects online to account for 15.1 percent of all ad expenditure, up from 10.5 percent in 2008.
Most of this growth will come from paid search,. In the United States search advertising to grow 20 percent in 2009, while traditional display grows three percent and classified grows 1.8 percent.
The Internet is the only medium ZenithOptimedia expects to grow in 2009.
How important are national broadband policies in explaining broadband adoption rates?
Apparently not so important, according to economists at the Phoenix Center for Advanced Legal & Economic Public Policy Studies.
In fact, "91 percent of the differences in fixed broadband adoption rates in the 30 OECD member countries can be explained by reference solely to differences in income, education, population age, and other demographic factors that bear little relationship to broadband or telecommunications policy," the Phoenix Center says in a new study.
That isn't to say government regulations and policies are unimportant. It's just to say that such policies explain about nine percent of adoption rate results.
At a time when big brand marketing budgets have been cut about 20 percent on average,some channels, at many companies, are getting more funding: social media, Web site development, online advertising, and email marketing.
Traditional media is taking a hit, though. About 67 percent of big brand marketers say they have decreased spending on TV, print, radio and magazines (click on image for larger view).
About 52 percent say they have decreased spending on direct mail.
But 47 percent of respondents say they are spending 47 percent more on social media. About seven percent say they are spending less.
About 44 percent are spending more on Web sites, while 22 percent say they are spending less. Online advertising is being hiked at 40 percent of firms, while declining at 27 percent of companies. Email marketing is up at 38 percent of firms and down at 11 percent of big brand companies.
Perhaps significantly, the top two reasons why spending is being cut, the logic is a combination of tight budgets and inability to track ROI or track results.
That is important going forward as the recession will end. Budgets will grow again. But the desire for quantifiable returns of some sort will remain. And that will favor online and mobile campaigns.
Six in ten marketers surveyed by Forrester Research say they will increase their interactive marketing budgets by shifting funds from traditional media. Among the channels, it looks like direct mail will be among the biggest losers.
About 40 percent of respondents say they will be cutting it in favor of social, mobile or online. But 35 percent of marketers also say newspaper advertising budgets will be pared. Some 28 percent say they will shift budgets away from magazines while 12 percent say they will shift funds from TV campaigns.
But you might not see most of the movement until the current recession ends, as ad budgets overall are so tight that marketers cannot experiment much.
Among the interactive channels, Forrester sees social media and mobile marketing spending expanding significantly between 2009 and 2014, with social media jumping by 34 percent on a compounded annual basis and mobile marketing increasing by 27 percent.
But these are young channels, at least as compared with relatively mature interactive mediums such as e-mail, display advertising and search. Social media’s increase reflects a starting point of $716 million in 2009 (seen as increasing to $3.11 billion by 2014). Mobile marketing expenditures stand at 319 million this year, and are seen as jumping to $1.27 billion by 2014.
In comparison, online display advertising, which currently stands at $7.83 billion, will rise by 17 percent annually, ending up at $16.9 billion in 2014. Search marketing, which currently sucks up $15.39 billion in spending, will jump by 15 percent, to $31.59 billion, and email, now at $1.25 billion, will increase 11 percent, to 2.08 billion.
After about a three percent dip in 2009, U.S. ad spending on social networks is expected to climb 13 percent in 2010, with another eight percent rise in 2011, researchers at eMarketer say.
AT&T plans to sell the Nokia Surge, a handset optimized for social networking and messaging, starting July 19, 2009. AT&T will sell the Surge for $79.99 with a two-year service agreement and after a mail-in rebate. Without the contract, the phone will sell for $130.
The phone will use an advanced Web browser with Flash support to view sites in full HTML or watch YouTube videos. Additionally, AT&T will supply the phone with their popular network features, including AT&T Navigator for GPS navigation, AT&T Music for Napster music support, and AT&T Video Share for one-way video conference-like calling.
Nokia is not positioning this phone against their high-end Nseries or Eseries smart phone devices, but more as a mid-range smart phone, which many of us would argue is the sweet spot for users who are big on social networking but unable or unwilling to spend much more for a smart phone.
The Symbian S60-based smart phone features a full QWERTY keyboard, a browser with Flash and supports IM, text or e-mail, sending multimedia messages, AT&T Video Share and updating and connecting to popular social networks.
The Surge also features a 2.0 megapixel, GPS capability, AT&T mobile music and AT&T video share. Through the pre-installed JuiceCaster users can share videos and pictures from the Surge to sites including Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Flickr.
The "Nokia Surge hits the sweet spot between a quick messaging phone and a smartphone because of its low-price and strong feature set," says Michael Woodward,AT&T VP.
The Surge also features a microSDHC expansion slot and Bluetooth with stereo audio support.
Many observers think telcos, which have no legacy core competencies in content, will not be much of a factor in the video market to the same extent that cable operators have become. France Telecom suggests those views might be wrong.
Last year, France Telecom launched five channels featuring films and TV shows from several major U.S. studios. France Telecom subscribers could get Warner Brothers "Harry Potter" movies or "The Sopranos" on their TVs.
France Telecom also has exclusive rights to popular soccer matches by France's Ligue 1 to create a mini-ESPN that French consumers can get only by signing on with Orange.
And the move seems to be paying off. In the last year, sports and TV offerings have helped boost Orange's TV customer base by 69 percent.
There are a couple of ways this could play out in the U.S. market. DirecTV, which does own exclusive National Football League programming, might wind up wholely owned by a U.S. telco. Beyond that, firms such as Verizon and AT&T already offer exclusive content.
AT&T iPhone customers recently had the chance to watch AT&T National golf tournament coverage on their iPhones, for example.
