Next Broadband Round Will Be Heavy on Middle Mile Projects

The National Telecommunications & Information Association and the Department of Agriculture's Rural Utilities Service have announced the second round of bidding, as well as a specialized third round specifically for satellite projects. These rounds will dispense about $4.8 billion in grants and loans  to expand broadband access and adoption.                    

NTIA’s program allocates $2.6 billion in this funding round of which approximately $2.35 billion will be made available for infrastructure projects. In this round, NTIA is adopting a “comprehensive communities” approach as its top priority in awarding infrastructure grants, focusing on middle mile broadband projects that connect key community anchor institutions – such as libraries, hospitals, community colleges, universities, and public safety institutions.

That is a significant development. NTIA projects, which have been seen as aimed more at metro areas than the Rural Utilities Service program, which exclusively aims to support rural projects, seems to have concluded that actual upgraded access projects are less valuable than middle-mile trunking services.

In other words, much of the spending in both the first and second rounds will go not to any new broadband access facilities, but to intermediate trunking networks that later can be used to provide actual broadband access.

The other interesting change is the new emphasis on a "third round" that specifically will accept satellite projects for the most-isolated locations.

In addition, NTIA plans to award at least $150 million of the funding for Public Computer Center projects, which will expand access to broadband service and enhance broadband capacity at public libraries, community colleges, and other institutions that service the general public.

NTIA also plans to award at least $100 million for Sustainable Broadband Adoption projects, which include projects to provide broadband education, training, and equipment, particularly to vulnerable population groups where broadband technology has traditionally been underutilized.

The separate Rural Utilities Service program will allocate $2.2 billion in this funding round. A second funding window will open later which will provide grants for satellite service for premises that remain unserved after all other Recovery Act broadband funding is awarded.

That round also will award grants for regional economic development projects using broadband, as well as make grants to rural libraries.

RUS will focus its round on last mile projects, which are anticipated to receive the vast majority of funding.

RUS will also fund middle mile projects involving current RUS program participants. RUS has decided to use a 75 percent grant, /25 percent loan model for all projects.

The application window opens Feb. 16 and closes March 15, 2010.

AT&T Announces New Pricing for Unlimited Mobile Plans

AT&T has announced new unlimited plans across all of its devices. The new plans, available beginning Jan. 18, 2010, feature an unlimited voice plan for $70 a month. "Family Talk" customers (two lines) will be available for $120  a month.

Texting plans remain unchanged at $20 for unlimited plans for individuals and $30 for Family Talk plans.

"Quick Messaging Device" (feature phone) customers can buy unlimited talk plans for $70 a month and Family Talk customers can buy unlimited talk plans for $120 per month (two lines).

These plans also require a minimum of $20 per month for individual plans and $30 per month for Family Talk plans for texting or Web browsing packages for new and upgrading customers.

All smartphone customers, including iPhone customers, may now buy unlimited voice and data for $100 a month.

For smartphone customers on Family Talk plans (first two smartphones), unlimited voice and data is now available for $180 a month. Texting plans remain unchanged at $20 for unlimited plans for individuals, $30 for Family Talk Plans.

Beginning Jan. 18, 2010, existing AT&T customers can change to any of the new plans without penalty or contract extension

Is Nexus One A Particular Threat to Service Providers?

Does Google's Nexus One launch mean anything in particular for mobile service providers? That might be a matter of some debate at the moment. Some observers were expecting something "more disruptive." Perhaps an ad-supported voice service; maybe a completely unlocked device able to work on any carrier's network; maybe a business model that clearly delineates a new role for the handset provider.

That didn't happen. Some observers think the bigger innovation is the way Google is selling from a
Web site. Some might see too much difference there, either. Selling from a Web site isn't too unusual these days, and Apple's retail stores and existing carrier Web sites.already provide models for handset distribution aside from the branded mobile carrier stores.

To be sure, an "unlocked handset" strategy always will be tough in the U.S. market until such time as most carriers are using one single air interface and handsets are equipped with enough frequency agility to adapt to whatever network si providing access. An unlocked handset today means a choice of no more than one or two major carriers (one WiMAX, two CDMA and two GSM).

The other angle is that U.S. consumers have not yet shown any desire to pay full retail price for a handset, when they can get a subsidized device at the price of a two-year contract. People might gripe about the existence of contracts, but they have choices. They can pay full retail for their devices and avoid the contracts. Not many make that choice.

The more interesting observation is about what various Android devices really are. A BlackBerry is an email device; an iPhone is a Web surfing device. Many feature phones are texting devices. Some models are social networking devices, or at least highly optimized for that purpose. Some devices are optimized for navigation.

Could a new niche be developing for a "search" device? Is "finding stuff" a sufficiently robust need that at least one of the Android devices becomes recognized as the single best device for finding things? That seems to me the most interesting question about what the Nexus One or broader family of Android devices might raise.

Matters always can change, but at least for the moment, it does not appear the Nexus One is especially disruptive of the existing mobile business model or standard practices, either.

http://connectedplanetonline.com/mobile-apps/news/googles-nexus-effects-0115/?imw=Y

Real Estate Advertising Trends: Newspapers Will Gain, Online Will Not

It might be true, at a strategic level, that newspapers are a declining medium while the Web is a growing medium. At a tactical level, that does not automatically mean ad spending always, inexorably is shifting from print to online.

The newspaper business, for example, might see a 16 percent increase in real estate advertising in 2010 while online real estate advertising actuall drops about four percent, more than it declined in 2009.

Ironically, media segments that have generally been perceived as weak, including newspapers and broadcasting, are set to do better. Conversely, those that have been otherwise least affected by the economic downturn, cable and online, are poised to do worse.

Real estate spending on broadcast TV will surge 39 percent in 2010 after declining 44 percent last year. Cable TV will drop 16 percent this year. In 2009, cable TV real estate ad revenue fell just two percent.

Part of the reason for the disparity among the major media segments is that local real estate advertisers have been increasing their spending, while national, out-of-market realtors are decreasing their spend.

The other angle is that so much money has shifted to online formats that there isn't a much room to grow, when other alternatives are more affordable.

About three of every five online ad dollars are currently spent by real estate agents and brokers. Not 60 percent of real estate advertising; 60 percent of all online advertising.

Another reason for the decline in online spending by realtors and brokers also is the result of a tactical shift. More money is being spent on less-costly paid search programs, less on display ads.

Sometimes the conventional wisdom can be wrong. It appears it certainly will be wrong about real estate ad spending in 2010. Newspapers and broadcasting will get more growth; cable and online less.

New Verizon Wireless Pricing Shows Growth Strategy

Verizon Wireless today announced that it is introducing new data, prepaid, and voice plans on January 18, 2010. The single biggest change is a new mandatory data plan requirement for all 3G multimedia devices. For "feature" phones, that will mean a $10 a month charge for use of up to 15 Mbytes. 

Smartphone packages remain at $30 a month. 

But Verizon also introduced new unlimited postpaid plans for voice ($70 a month) and unlimited talk and text for $90 a month. Prepaid unlimited plans sell for $75 a month for voice, and $95 a month for unlimited voice and texting.

"Nationwide Unlimited Talk Family SharePlans" will be $120 a month while "Nationwide Unlimited Talk & Text Family SharePlans" will cost $150 a month.

All Family SharePlan pricing includes the first two lines of service. The new plans do not apply to existing customers, though any current customer can change to any of the new plans without a penalty or contract extension.

So heree's the strategy background. Verizon wants to build the biggest-possible data customer base before it launches its new fourth-generation Long Term Evolution network. That's an essential part of getting a financial return on the 4G investment, and also reflects the growing importance of smartphones as a percentage of total devices sold and the importance of data service revenues.

Verizon also wants to protect its base of "high-value" customers by simplifying pricing plans, providing more value and encouraging uptake of higher-end plans. Verizon expects to see higher data penetration, higher average revenue per user and less churn, with lower-end customers moving up to unlimited plans in greater numbers. 

Verizon believes the moves to unlimited plans also will reduce operatinal costs. Since a large percentage of customer service costs are driven by consumers concerned about their usage and overages, unlimited plans will blunt the volume and cost of handling such requests. 

Strategically, the data plan moves also are a reflection of the vanishing voice revenues business, and the absolute centrality of data revenues as the mainstay of Verizon Wireless revenue. 

Are Emerging Market Consumers Different?

A new study by Accenture suggests that, in a globalized world, consumer demand for a wide range of technology products is remarkably similar, at least among those emerging market buyers with disposable income.

In fact, consumers in emerging markets are twice as likely as those in developed markets to purchase and use consumer technology in the next year and are more willing to pay a premium for “environmentally friendly” consumer electronics products, says Accenture.

The Accenture survey of 16,000 consumers in four “mature” countries (the United States, Germany, France and Japan) and four “emerging” countries (China, India, Malaysia, and Singapore) suggests current and future spending and usage patterns for 19 different consumer technologies, including smartphones, high-definition TVs and computers, is remarkably similar in developed and emerging markets, with one exception: developing market consumers are more likely to buy smartphones, PCs and other devices over the next year.

Compared with consumers in mature countries, consumers in emerging countries are more than two and a half times as likely to buy a smartphone during the next year (52 percent  compared to 20 percent).

Emerging market consumers also are more than twice as likely to have bought a smartphone in the past year (67 percent compared to 32 percent).

Twice as many emerging market consumers are likely to have bought a computer in the past year (40 percent vs. 20 percent). They also are more than twice as likely to have at least occasionally played video games on handheld devices (58 percent compared to 28 percent).

Do they use social networking? Yes, at about a 69 percent rate, compared to 38 percent in the developed markets.

Emerging market consumers also are significantly more likely to pay a premium for consumer products marketed as being environmentally friendly (84 percent compared to  50 percent).

“One of the reasons for this emerging-country growth is the rapid expansion of the middle class with its substantial disposable income,” says Jean-Laurent Poitou, managing director of Accenture’s Electronics & High Tech industry group.

“Furthermore, our research shows that the increased demand for smart connected wireless devices such as smartphones is being driven by social-networking applications.

“Emerging-country consumers use mobile devices more than they do computers to access Internet-enabled applications and services, and consumers in mature countries are also headed in that direction.”

Are Social Networks More Like Email or Google?

Social networks already have become a lead application for mobile devices. A new study by Accenture finds that “increased demand for smart connected wireless devices such as smartphones is being driven by social-networking applications," in both developed and developing economies.

But you likely still can get a good argument about whether social networking is a "feature" or a business model. Email for the most part remains a "feature." Early in the development of the dial-up business, email was so important it actually drove adoption of Internet access. These days, with the advent of Web mail and business and organization email, it simply is a feature, but not a direct revenue model (except for providers of email hardware and software).

Google and other Web mail providers have started building an advertising revenue stream, but it largely is ancillary.

The same sort of argument can be made about social networking applications. Skeptics point to Twitter, Facebook, MySpace,  Bebo and Geocities, which either are struggling to create a business model, or have been shut down.

Optimists might say that although many attempts will fail, a normal situation for the Internet applications business, one or two of the players will discover a sustainable business model and possibly even achieve "Google" style success.

Most believe advertising will be significant, and skeptics say social networks are not conducive to most types of display advertising, for example.

That would explain why no social networking company has yet emerged as a public company: there is not yet a viable business model.

It is possible that some new model will be discovered in time. Twitter, for example, is nearly at breakeven as a result of a search results deals with Google and Bing. That's not a complete answer, but it helps.

It is not yet possible to determine the final outcome. It is conceivable that some social networks will drive so much engagement and value that some will be acquired by larger firms able to leverage the networks to deepen and extend their other existing business models. In that scenario social networking winds up more like email than Google.

Right now, it likely is a coin toss which model is most believed.