It doesn't appear that consumers view the iPad primarily as an e-book reader, but more as a media appliance, a comScore study suggests.

Though 37 percent of respondents indicated they were “likely” or “very likely” to read books on the device, nearly half indicated a high likelihood of using the iPad for browsing the Internet (50 percent) and receiving and sending email (48 percent).

More than one third said they would use it for listening to music (38 percent), maintaining an address book or contact list (37 percent), watching videos or movies (36 percent), storing and viewing photos (35 percent) and reading newspapers and magazines (34 percent). says comScore.

“These devices have the potential to be incredibly disruptive to the way consumers currently access digital content," says Serge Matta, comScore EVP.

The big issue is whether there exists a sizable market for a digital appliance somewhere between a netbook or notebook PC and an iPhone. In that regard, when asked whether they would use an iPad “instead of” or “in addition to” other digital devices, the highest amount of potential substitution was for the iPod Touch (37 percent).

Conversely, despite widespread belief that the iPad might threaten netbook adoption, only 22 percent of consumers said they would use an iPad in place of a netbook.

The most important device attributes that consumers indicated they would like to have included in the iPad were: ability to use multiple applications/programs at once (43 percent), having a screen the same size as a laptop or desktop computer (37 percent) and having a built-in camera (34 percent). Among iOwners, the percentages were substantially higher at 56, 66 and 51 percent, respectively.

Some 34 percent of males indicated they were likely to use the iPad for playing action, strategy or role-playing games, as did 28 percent of females. More than half of those 18 to 24 year olds (53 percent) said they were likely to use the iPad for gaming.

Younger consumers indicated a high willingness to pay for news and magazines specially formatted for e-readers. About 68 percent of 25 to 34 year olds and 59 percent of 35 to 44 year olds said they were willing to pay for this type of content.

If comScore's results prove to be correct, the iPad will emerge as a media appliance.

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CTIA Reports Gains, As It Always Does

Almost nothing is more predictable than the CTIA reporting that revenues, subscribers and wireless data increased over the last six-month period. In fact, many of us cannot remember a six-month period where that has not happened. So it is that the CTIA says wireless data service revenues increased 25.7 percent from the last half of 2008 to reach more than $22 billion for the last half of 2009, CTIA-The Wireless Association says.
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Wireless data revenues now represent more than 28 percent of all wireless service revenues. The number of data-capable devices has grown to 257 million units, up from 228 million at the end of 2008.

About 50 million of these devices are smart phones or wireless-enabled PDAs and nearly 12 million are wireless-enabled laptops, notebooks or aircards.

More than 822 billion text messages sent and received on carriers’ networks during the last half of 2009, amounting to almost five billion messages per day at the end of the year.

As of December 2009, the industry survey recorded more than 285 million wireless connections. This represents a year-over-year increase of more than 15 million.

Also, wireless penetration is now equal to more than 91 percent of the U.S. population, CTIA says.

Other highlights of the survey include wireless customers using more than 1.12 trillion minutes in the last half of 2009, up 38 billion from the last half of 2008—and breaking down to 6.1 billion minutes-of-use per day. Wireless service revenues for the last half of 2009 amounted to almost $77 billion—up from a little more than $75 billion in the last half of 2008.

AT&T Now Sells Triple-Play Bundles With Mobile Voice, Rather than Landline Voice

AT&T now allows consumers to buy a $99 triple-play bundle that allows customers to choose wireless as their voice option, rather than a fixed landline voice service.

The not-unexpected move shows both the appetite end users have for such packages, as well as AT&T's decision that now is the time to put more emphasis on gluing wireless users to the landline services, and less emphasis on using broadband and television to slow the rate of wireline erosion.

That isn't to say the original impulse is no longer important. It remains important for many customers. But the new bundles reflect the growing demand for wireless voice in triple-play bundles, rather than fixed line voice service.

AT&T "U-verse Choice" bundles start at $99 a month for three AT&T services, including U-family; U-verse High Speed Internet Pro (up to 3 Mbps downstream); and a choice of AT&T Nation 450 wireless voice or U-verse Voice 250 home phone.

Other packages featuring faster broadband speeds and more wireless or home phone calling minutes or more TV channels for $127 to $150 a month.

Where U-verse service is not available, customers can bundle DirecTV service with broadband and voice.

Twitter Users Want News, MySpace Users Do Not, Unless it is Celebrity News

Twitter is a social networking medium, but it also is a news distribution mechanism, it appears. A new stydy by Chitika shows Twitterers mostly consume news while MySpace users want games and entertainment.

Click the image for a larger view.

Facebook also is a news site, but less so than Twitter is. About half the traffic (47 percent) that Twitter generates falls into the news category. In fact, Twitter users’ interest in the news genre surpasses that of Facebook users by nearly 20 percent, which would appear to make it the number-one social network for news-focused users.

MySpace users, on the other hand, seem to have no interest in news whatsoever. Instead, MySpace members seem to prefer video games (28 percent) and celebrity and entertainment content (23 percent).

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Free E-Book on Cloud Computing

Light and Electric, Thomas Howe's consulting company, has produced an e-book on cloud computing, featuring essays by 20 "thought leaders."

The idea was to capture thinking about where are in early 2010 and where we might be over the next several years.

Howe says that "in the not-so-long-ago past, the thought leadership for communications belonged to those large service providers, vendors and media outlets, as they were the only entities with the practical authority to comment on or effect changes large enough to matter."

That isn't exclusively the case anymore.

The e-book is free and available for download directly from this site: http://cloudcommbook.squarespace.com/get-the-book/.

In addition, for a nominal fee to cover printing and delivery, it is also available in tree-killing hardcopy edition, and bit-killing Kindle edition.

National Broadband Plan: Where Does U.S. Rank? Where Can it Rank?

A six-spot gain to 9th place in international broadband rankings would be a successful outcome for the Federal Communications Commission’s National Broadband Plan, says the Phoenix Center.

Historical trends suggest the United States will likely move to 13th in broadband adoption by 2012 even without significant policy changes, however.

The new Phoenix Center study, "Evaluating Broadband Stimulus and the National Broadband Plan: Establishing Expectations for Broadband Rankings", uses a variety of standard econometric techniques to determine where the United States is expected to rank given current trends, and where the United States should rank if the National Broadband Plan and federal broadband stimulus are successful.

“As we point out in our prior research, relying upon the OECD’s flawed methodology as an
accurate metric of a country’s broadband performance is fraught with peril,” says Phoenix Center
President and study co-author Lawrence J. Spiwak. “However, as some policymakers continue to
use the OECD’s methodology as the definitive broadband metric, our analysis establishes a
performance metric by which to assess the success or failure of new broadband interventions using
the OECD’s rankings. In so doing, we hope that our analysis can make a positive contribution to
the debate by establishing a standard by which to measure the success of new policies.”

Many observers point to U.S. rankings on global indices of broadband penetration, cost or speeds as evidence that the United States is lagging behind other nations. But comparing very-large countries with very-small countries, with different population densities, government policies, household sizes and incomes is difficult.

For example, the United States ranks no better than 15trh in global measures of telephone density. But nobody really suggests the United States has a fixed-line voice availability problem. In fact, most observers say demand for that product is declining.

So where does the United States currently rank on per-capita measures of broadband penetration? 15th, as it turns out; precisely where it has long ranked in terms of fixed-line voice line penetration. If one is not a problem, why is the other?

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Service Providers Now Will Have to Contend with Decades of Belt-Tightening

As if forecasting telecom, cable and Internet spending were not hard enough, it is about to become much-more uncertain, for reasons most of us probably could never have expected: a decades-long suppression of end user consumption to re-balance structural deficits.

Developed countries with big budget deficits--including the United States--must start now to prepare public opinion for the belt-tightening that will be needed starting next year, John Lipsky, says International Monetary Fund first deputy managing director.

Gross general government debt in the advanced economies will rise from an average of 75 percent of gross domestic product at end-2007 to 110 percent of GDP at end-2014, even assuming that temporary, crisis-related stimulus steps are withdrawn in coming years.

Reducing the ratio to the pre-crisis average of 60 percent by 2030 would require raising the structural primary balance -- before interest payments -- from a deficit of about four percent of GDP in 2010 to a surplus of about four percent of GDP in 2020 and keeping it at that level for the following decade.

That clearly implies an eight percent swing in balances, before interest payments.

Lipsky also says the scale of the adjustment is so vast that less-generous health and pension benefits, government spending cuts and increased tax revenues are needed.

The drops in government services to individual citizens and businesses could be unprecedented, some therefore suggest.

The obvious danger is that the U.S. Congress seems hell-bent on making the problem worse by continuing to spend as though it had the means to pay for its spending. The IMF has for decades both scolded and disciplined developing nations unable to balance their budgets.

Now it appears the United States, for the first time, is headed that way as well. The ramifications are not entirely certain, but slower economic growth is likely and social strife virtually inevitable.

It is not immediately certain what all of this fundamental change will mean for providers of communication and other services to businesses and consumers, but it probably will a mixed impact.

If one assumes consumers will have less disposal income, one would expect pressure on overall revenues and profit margins. But consumers will also have to make choices about discretionary spending, and past behavior suggests that communications and entertainment services are high priorities.

All indications are that broadband access will become, with mobility, anchor and foundational services, the key issues for service providers being the cost of delivering those and other services, as well as creating a sustainable new role in the revenue chain for application usage.

It is not so clear what will happen to demand for today's packaged multi-channel video services. So far, mobile and online video usage seems incremental to other existing forms of video consumption, but much depends on what content owners decide is in their best long-term interests. Major change in distribution methods is possible, but not likely in the short term.

But businesses also will be forced to operate more frugally, which could have a variety of effects. In the recent recession business revenue dropped, except for providers taking market share.

The upshot is that most consumers will have less to spend, though. That could send the United States and other developed nations into a downward spiral where muted consumer activity undermines GDP growth.

The point is that our historical experiences with post-recession recoveries will be stressed in new ways this time around, specifically because the macro-economic stresses are so novel. The United States never before has had to be told by the IMF to adopt austerity measures, and people have not had to live through such a period.

But we are about to. And means everybody who tries to forecast revenue for telecom, cable and Internet companies, as well as others in the ecosystem, must face increased uncertainty. That doesn't necessarily mean the underlying assumptions will change. They might not. But it is not clear at the moment what could change, and we might not know for several years what the nature of those changes are.

Reuters article