Developed Asia-Pacific Telecom Markets Will Shrink Between 2012 and 2017

Aggregate statistics do not tell us very much about the health of various markets and product segments. Consider revenue projections for the Asia-Pacific region, generally acknowledged to be the fastest-growing region globally, with some estimates pegging revenue growth at about seven percent a year.

But telecom retail revenue in developed Asia–Pacific markets, for example, is set to decline at a compound annual growth rate of –0.4 percent during the next five years, according to new research by Analysys Mason.

Overall revenue is expected to fall from US$217 billion in 2012 to US$213 billion in 2017, even as gross domestic product grows three percent during this period.

As you might guess, the revenue decline will be driven by a fall in fixed revenue from US$86 billion in 2012 to US$74 billion in 2017.

The mobile sector will grow at around 1.5 per year from US$131 billion in 2012 to US$139 billion in 2017.

Fixed voice connections will decline by five percent between 2012 and 2017, from 138 million at the end of 2012 to 132 million at the end of 2017.

Mobile network connections will increase by 21 percent, from 255 million to 267 million in the same period, but mobile retail revenue will decline because the average revenue per voice minute will decrease – drastically in some countries.

“It is becoming increasingly difficult to extract the value of a mobile minute in developed economies,” says Tom Mowat, Analysys Mason principal analyst.

Still, mobile penetration will grow from 115 percent at the end of 2012 to 133 percent by the end of 2017.

Smart phones represented 42 percent of handset subscriber information modules at the end of 2012 and will grow to 84 percent by 2017.

By the end of 2013, smartphone SIMs in the region will outnumber those of non-smartphones.

The number of fixed broadband subscribers will grow from 75 million at the end of 2012 to 81 million by the end of 2017.

The proportion of fiber-to-the-home and business connections will grow from 42 percent of the region’s fixed broadband connections at the end of 2012 to 48 percent at the end of 2017.

The most rapid growth will be in Australia and Singapore, where national broadband projects could life penetration from about one percent up to perhaps 13 percent in Australia and 46 percent in Singapore by the end of 2017.