Mobile Operating System Disruption is Possible, but How Often Can it Occur?

Apple and Samsung had 62 share of the 141 million U.S.-owned smart phones in the March to May 2013 period, comScore reports.

Apple had 39 percent of the installed base, while Samsung had 23 percent. HTC had nearly nine percent while Motorola had nearly eight percent and LG had nearly seven percent.

Though some will question how much benefit Google yet has reaped as a result of its Android initiative, Android ranked as the top smart phone platform in May 2012 with 52 percent market share.

Apple ranked second with 39 percent market share, followed by BlackBerry with nearly five percent, Microsoft with three percent.

And we sometimes forget how rapidly operating system preferences have changed. Until 2010, Symbian lead globally. At the beginning of 2008, Android wasn’t a commercial platform.

By 2010, Android had become the clear market share leader (sales, not installed base) globally.

For new challengers, including Tizen, Firefox and even Windows Mobile, such sudden changes offer hope that, under the right circumstances, a new operating system can disrupt the existing market.

On the other hand, challengers also must confront the size of the content and application ecosystems that the leaders have managed to build.

Mobile operating system disruption can happen, as we already have seen. The issue is how often, and under what conditions, such disruption is possible.