Thursday, December 28, 2006

ILECs will Lose 30 Percent of Households by 2010

By 2010, 30 percent of households in the United States will completely cut their service with their local phone company, predict analysts at The Yankee Group. These households will upgrade to broadband and choose VoIP for their home phone service or become wireless-only households. But there are countervailing pressures.

Some 48 percent of households with both a wireless and landline phone say their wireless phone will never replace their landline phone. The main barriers to wireless-only service include reliability and quality. Some 19 percent of wireless users cited quality and reliability as primary reasons for retaining the landline phone. Twenty-two percent of wireless users cited indoor wireless coverage and 28 percent cited battery life as reasons not to cut the cord. Wireless quality and reliability will continue to improve, and will weaken as reasons to keep the landline phone.

About 37 percent of wireless users say Internet access requirements are a primary reason for retaining the landline phone. About 45 percent of households have DSL or dialup, which both require a landline connection. With the exception of Qwest and a few others who offer it as a retention strategy, local phone providers are still not offering consumers stand-alone DSL service. Over the next few years, Yankee Group researchers expect local phone providers to offer DSL without local phone service ("naked DSL"), reducing the need to keep a POTS line in service.

About 37 percent of wireless users cited emergency calling as a primary reason for retaining the landline phone. Some 26 percent of wireless users cite a unified family phone number as a primary reason for keeping the landline phone. A single phone number that provides a family identity, that can be given as the main contact number, is valued by this consumer segment.

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