Which Devices Will Drive Mobile Web?

Given a choice between believing what people say they will do and evidence of what they have done, I've always found it is more helpful to believe what they have done is a better predictor of what they will do in the future.

So consider a bit of survey data which seems to have the ring of authenticity and some purchase behavior that might bear on the development of mobile Web devices.

The clear winner in an In-Stat survey of U.S. consumers about preferred mobile Web devices is the smart phone, the research firm says. Nearly half of the respondents said they preferred the smart phone as a mobile Internet device.

Fewer than 10 percent indicated a preference for the capabilities of mobile Internet devices, such as an ultra-mobile PC or a mobile Internet device. In some ways that simply makes sense. The mobile device most people carry is a mobile phone. Given the ability to add Web access from that device, one would expect most people to say that is the preferred, "use every day and everywhere" device.

The issue is that consumers rarely if ever provide decent input on applications or devices they have not seen or used. Survey responses would seem to carry an awful lot of that sort of data.

About one quarter of users like the idea of the ultra-mobile PC as long as it does not involve sacrificing the capabilities of a full-function laptop. But few users have them, at least so far.

Those showing an interest in MIDs were unclear about how they would use these devices or where to buy them. Again, there is a lack of awareness and experience with such devices, which make the feedback less useful.

The main objection for non-users of mobile data technology in general, and smart phones in particular, is that users are skeptical of the benefits of mobile data and view it as a “luxury.”

On the other hand, there is data gathered from Finland mobile operators suggesting very strongly that it is in fact PCs that drive most of the mobile data traffic.

It might be that today's mobile Web users primarily are users with characteristics different from the ultimate base of mobile Web users. That might be the case for 3G data card users and iPhone users, for example.

The point simply is that we won't know what users actually will do until they have ample chance to see and use mobile devices capable of using the Web. There is ample evidence that iPhone users have mobile Web usage profiles astoundingly different from users of other Internet-capable mobile devices.