Mobile subscriber penetration in the U.S. market is nearing saturation, no doubt about it. But it seems wildly wrong to maintain, as does Craig Moffett, Sanford C. Bernstein & Company analyst, that “this industry is collapsing”
Slowing subscriber growth will lead to devasting price wars, he believes. To be sure, analysts always are worried about price wars. But "collapse"? Slowing subscriber numbers are a fact. But so is higher average revenue per user.
Moffett notes that in 2008, wireless carriers added 5.9 percent more subscribers in the United States, but he thinks they will add only three percent this year. A reasonable assumption, many might agree.
“The fourth quarter saw the lowest growth rate ever for the U.S. wireless industry,” Moffett notes. And yes, that is what happens in a maturing industry, at least on the subscriber front. But Moffett always seems to be more bearish on virtually all telecom companies than on cable companies, which also are losing video customers, though growing voice and broadband accounts.
No comments:
Post a Comment