That could potentially allow majority control by foreign investors. Observers say that if the liberalization moves succeed, it likely will drive a major wave of consolidation among Canadian providers, driven in part by the need to bulk up in advance of an expected wave of new entrants, many of whom will have significant resources.
The Canadian telecom business is about a $40 billion a year business and only recently allowed Egyptian-backed Globalive Communications Corp. into the mobility market.
Some speculate that any new rules would cap such control to firms controlling about 10 percent of the total Canadian market. One logically would expect the major interest to be in wireless assets, as wireless is the segment of the business with the strongest growth prospects.
Canada's leading service providers, such as Rogers Communications, BCE and Telus have criticized the Globalive decision.
Some financial analysts are not so sure there will be too much interest, though. "Even if foreign ownership restrictions were lifted today, we do not see much foreign strategic interest in Canadian incumbents," says Dvai Ghose, Genuity Capital Markets analyst.
AT&T, Verizon and Comcast still seem focused on domestic operations. In addition, Canadian telcos and cable companies currently trade at significant premiums to U.S. and European peers.
Still, mobile challengers are likely to attract some interest. That likely means more cap[ital will be available for mobile upstarts Wind, Public Mobile and Dave. Incumbents are likely to consider mergers as a defensive move, says Jeff Fan of Scotia Capital.
"We believe opening the doors to foreign investment in Canada will benefit the new wireless entrants in the near term by providing them with greater access to capital and allowing them to simplify their business structures," says Phillip Huang, UBS Securities Canada analyst.
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