U.S. Wireless Business Twice the Size of Wireline in 5 Years

In five years, the U.S. wireless business will be more than twice the size of the entire landline services business, say researchers at Insight Research Corp.

Keep in mind that the U.S. wireless and wired network businesses were roughly equivalent revenue producers in 2009.

That is but one example of a profound change in the telecommunications business globally, where wireless already has emerged as the key telecommunications service, with wireless accounts outnumbering wireline voice lines by a four-to-one margin.

In 2000 there were 738 million global mobile subscribers. In 2010, there are 4.3 billion mobile subscribers. In other words, mobile users have doubled twice in just 10 years.

It took just four years to double the number of global mobility users, from 2000 to 2004, and just another four years to double yet again, from 2004 to 2008.

All U.S. landline communications spending stood at $161.4 billion at the end of 2009 and will grow slowly to $165.7 billion by the end of 2014, representing a negligible compound annual growth rate of 0.5 percent.

Total U.S. wireless spending stood at $160.3 billion in 2009. But wireless revenue will grow at an 18.4 percent annual rate between 2010 and 2014, reaching $373.2 billion in 2014.

It now appears 2000 was the year U.S. wired voice accounts hit their peak, as they have been steadily declining ever since.

It is a truism that new technologies cause far less change in the early going than observers predict, but also cause more change than expected once the changes really take hold. It is a related truism that tipping points occur with great suddenness. Long periods of gestation, where each year appears to be much like the next, suddenly erupt, with acute changes unexpectedly obvious.

It appears the U.S. communications industry is about to hit one of those important inflection points, where a new pattern suddenly is obvious.