But Israel, Iraq, Uganda and Cambodia were other countries also viewed as countries where growth could occur.
Notably, just five percent of respondents chose Brazil, Russia, India, China or South Africa as among the nations having the strongest growth, though the so-called BRICS nations have been at the top of global growth lists for some years.
Regionally, Asia-Pacific (exclusive of China and India) was cited by compared to 61 percent of survey respondents as the region most likely to lead revenue growth.
Even the Middle East seems a more promising market, with 15 percent of respondents
choosing it as the next boom region.
In part, the shift of growth expectations is a logical consequence of rapid development in the BRICS nations over the last decade. The International Monetary Fund has cut its 2012 and 2013 growth expectations for China, India and Brazil, for example. Those countries have made large
investments in their technology and telecom infrastructure. Though not yet at a saturation
point, those countries are fast approaching saturation, at least for mobile and computing infrastructure.
In Indonesia, for example, there are around 55 million internet users. But that’s just a tiny fraction (22 percent) of its 245 million population. But growth is going to be rapid. The number of internet users grew 29 percent in the most recent year.
Predictions point to 76 million users by 2015. Perhaps ironically, the majority of Internet users are accessing the web while on the go, and not from a desk. While mobile penetration is at 54 percent, PC penetration is just five percent.
But PC sales are grew 36 percent in the most recent year.
In Vietnam, 2012 information technology spending will have increased by 19 percent, IDC says. The total number of smart phones in Vietnam is expected to rise by five percent in 2012 to 21 percent.
The number of people using mobile phone services is expected to reach 90 percent of its population by 2015 and 95 percent by 2020.
By 2015, about 45 percent of the population will be using the Internet by 2015, up from about 30 percent in 2012.
Tablet penetration currently stands at two percent, but it’s expected to rise 92 percent by the end of 2012.
IDC is expects 15 percent year-over-year growth of information technology and communications spending in Myanmar in 2012. Internet usage is quite low, probably in low single digits, while mobile penetration rates likely are similar.
Around 80 percent of the Myanmar population of about 60 million people live in rural areas, pointing out the challenges of getting Internet service to most people.
Qatar’s state-backed Qatar National Broadband Network Company plans to build a fiber to home network reaching 95 percent from the current five percent, reaching 30,000 homes by the
end of 2012 and 300,000 by 2015.
In most emerging markets, wireless will be the preferred access method. For example, in a recent project that Analysys Mason undertook involving nine countries in the Middle East and North Africa, Analysys Mason found that in Algeria it would be commercially viable to roll out fiber to the home to around 12 percent of the population and wireless technologies to around 70 percent of the population.
Economic Viability of Various Access Technologies
Retail cost of service remains a key business issue, though. A study by Ovum found that South Africa had the most expensive broadband tariffs of 19 studies countries. Entry-level services in South Africa cost as much as $1,443 per year, with the prices of high-end services up to $6,000 per year.
Ovum found that lower end entry-level services cost as much as $1,211 per year in Nigeria.
In the countries that Ovum looked at, broadband services using HSPA (mobile 3G) technology were the cheapest option for entry-level users, with an average price of $223 per year.
Still, since broadband penetration in the developing world is only about six percent , there is lots of room for growth.
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