How Many Voice Lines in Use by 2018?

The Federal Communications Commission Technology Advisory Council thinks U.S. time division multiplex fixed consumer access lines could dip to perhaps 20 million units by about 2018.

Others, such as Kent Larsen, CHR Solutions SVP, think lines overall could dip to about 50 million over the next five years, then to about 40 million on a long term and somewhat stable basis.

The TAC forecast might be tempered by its omission of business lines or perhaps voice lines provided over broadband connections. But the general direction, if not magnitude, are hard to argue with.

Access lines in use are declining. A peak seems to have occurred sometime between 1999 and 2001, in the U.S. market. Mobile lines grabbed leadership, in terms of lines in use, shortly thereafter.