Global Telecom Revenue Will Grow 3.8% Annually, to 2018

Forecasting is a hazardous business. Though one analysis shows European telecom service provider revenues have fallen for three straight years, other analysts continue to show steady growth, in ways that obscure the more granular trends.

Overall growth is undoubtedly a correct way to characterize the global business. It is just that growth will not be universal, for every service, in every country, for every provider, in every region.

Insight Research projects that global carrier revenue will grow from $2.2 trillion in 2013 to $2.7 trillion in 2018, at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8 percent.

Insight Research, for example, lumps the “Middle East” region with “Europe” and “Africa.” It is a standard way of reporting the data, if increasingly inaccurate, given growth in Africa and Middle East, and shrinkage in Europe.

Since 2010, revenue has been declining in Europe, according to the European Telecommunications Network Operators Association. Declines continued in 2011 and 2012.

As you would guess, mobile service revenue will outpace revenue from fixed network services.  From 2013 to 2018, wireline carrier revenue will grow from $1.0 trillion to $1.1 trillion
at a CAGR of 1.5 percent, while mobile carrier revenue will grow from $1.2 trillion to $1.6 trillion at a CAGR of 5.5 percent, Insight Research predicts.

North American carrier revenue will grow from $547 billion to $635 billion at a CAGR of three percent, Insight Research predicts. The EMEA region will do slightly better than North America, as the strength of growth in Africa and the Middle East.  From 2013 to 2018 EMEA carrier revenue will grow from $661 billion to $772 billion at a CAGR of 3.2 percent.

Asia and the Pacific Rim (AP) and Latin America and the Caribbean (LA) are the
fastest-growing regions.

From 2013 to 2018 Asia Pacific carrier revenue will grow from $832 billion to $1,047 billion at a CAGR of 4.7 percent, while Latin American carrier revenue will grow from $175 billion to $214 billion at a CAGR of 4.1 percent.