It would clearly be rational to argue that the smart phone is going to be the most ubiquitous device used to access the Internet, in most emerging markets. But tablet importance is going to grow, especially if smart phone communications are grafted onto a greater number of tablet models.
In some ways, it might not matter whether people rely on smart phones or tablets as their primary Internet access device, especially if it is a mobile network that provides the access. But the balance of tablets and smart phones in use for primary Internet access might have huge consequences for ISPs.
The reason is that if the tablet emerges as the key Internet access device, the odds of fixed networks being used would rise commensurately, if the assumption is that tablets will use Wi-Fi access, not a mobile 3G or 4G connection.
Right now, smart phones have the higher installed base. But tablet use is growing faster, from a much smaller base.
Smart connected device volume in emerging markets grew by 41.3 percent in 2012 with the tablet volume growing by 111.3 percent and smart phone volume by 69.7 percent year over- year.
By the end of year 2017, IDC predicts that the tablet and smart phone markets will have huge growth in the emerging markets.
In emerging markets, tablet unit shipments are expected to increase by 300 percent, while smart phone unit shipments are expected to double.
"In emerging markets, consumer spending typically starts with mobile phones and, in many cases, moves to tablets before PCs," says Megha Saini, IDC research analyst.
That could have important implications for providers of fixed broadband service in many markets, even if mobile networks remain the main way most people get access to the Internet.
Smart Connected Device Year-over-Year Growth by Region and Product Category, 2012-2017
Region
|
Product Category
|
2012
|
2013*
|
2017*
|
Mature Market
|
Desktop PC
|
-4.8%
|
-5.5%
|
-2.9%
|
Mature Market
|
Portable PC
|
-8.1%
|
-3.1%
|
-1.4%
|
Mature Market
|
Tablet
|
62.8%
|
41.4%
|
8.3%
|
Mature Market
|
Smartphone
|
20.6%
|
15.1%
|
4.6%
|
Total Market
|
15.6%
|
13.8%
|
4.2%
| |
Emerging Markets
|
Desktop PC
|
-3.8%
|
-3.5%
|
0%
|
Emerging Markets
|
Portable PC
|
-0.8%
|
4.1%
|
7.1%
|
Emerging Markets
|
Tablet
|
111.3%
|
60.7%
|
13.4%
|
Emerging Markets
|
Smartphone
|
69.7%
|
35.1%
|
12.2%
|
Total Market
|
41.3%
|
26.6%
|
10.9%
| |
Worldwide
|
Desktop PC
|
-4.1%
|
-4.3%
|
-1.0%
|
Worldwide
|
Portable PC
|
-3.4%
|
0.9%
|
3.7%
|
Worldwide
|
Tablet
|
78.4%
|
48.7%
|
10.6%
|
Worldwide
|
Smartphone
|
46.1%
|
27.2%
|
9.8%
|
Total Market
|
29.1%
|
21.2%
|
8.5%
|
Source: IDC
Smart Connected Device Market by Product Category, Shipments, Market Share, 2012-1016 (units in millions)
Product Category
|
2012 Unit Shipments
|
2012 Market Share
|
2017 Unit Shipments*
|
2017 Market Share*
|
2012—2017 Growth*
|
Desktop PC
|
148.4
|
12.4%
|
141.0
|
6.0%
|
-5.0%
|
Portable PC
|
202.0
|
16.8%
|
240.9
|
11.0%
|
19.3%
|
Tablet
|
128.3
|
10.7%
|
352.3
|
16%
|
174.5%
|
Smartphone
|
722.4
|
60.1%
|
1,516
|
67%
|
109.9%
|
Total
|
1,201.1
|
100.0%
|
2,250.3
|
100.0%
|
87.3%
|
Source: IDC
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