Saturday, June 22, 2019

How Much Upside from Mobile Substitution for Fixed Internet Access?

Strategy always is affected by a firm’s assets and liabilities. Consider U.S. fixed networks. Comcast, Charter and AT&T have 50 million to 60 million residences in each of their service areas. Verizon has but 14.6.

So relatively speaking, Verizon has much more to gain by attacking outside its fixed network footprint. It also has a smaller installed base to attack, compared to the other three biggest fixed network service providers.

AT&T, by virtue of its smallest ISP customer base, likewise is a less-inviting target. Of all the biggest four service providers, AT&T has the greatest need for a platform better able to compete for internet access customers.


T-Mobile US, with virtually no fixed network assets, has talked about attacking the installed base of cable internet access customers, for example, because cable has the lion’s share of customers to be taken.




Comcast has 45 percent take rates for internet access; Charter 48 percent; AT&T 26 percent and Verizon 48 percent.


Of the four biggest fixed network ISPs, Verizon has the greatest upside from out-of-region market share gains, while AT&T gains most from lower-cost access infrastructure of all types.

Cable operators, as the market leaders in internet access, have the most share to lose. Comcast and Charter are among the service providers with the most potential exposure, as both have big footprints and relatively high ISP market share. Verizon has relatively high share, but a much-smaller number of customers.


The ability to use the mobile platform to take fixed network internet access share therefore very much appeals to T-Mobile US, Verizon and AT&T.


At least in part, the big push by Comcast and Charter to supply gigabit speeds is a reflection of that exposure. Cable hopes its lead in gigabit internet access will provide protection against the assault from mobile and wireless alternatives.

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