By the end of 2025 there will be 1.2 billion fixed broadband subscribers worldwide, according to Point Topic. Between 2018 and 2025, fixed broadband subscription in the top 30 markets will grow by 22 percent. Global take-up, including rest of the world, is expected to grow by 24 percent.
But Point Topic also suggests that growth will flatten at about that level, globally. And mobile substitution using 5G networks is among the probable reasons for the slower growth.
“The slowdown in growth and, in some markets, possible decline in fixed broadband subscribers will be impacted by the launch of superfast 5G services,” says PointTopic. “We predict that the impact will be especially noticeable in more saturated fixed broadband markets.”
Much will hinge on tariffs, especially usage allowances and the pricing of 5G data consumption close to that of fixed networks. Mobile data prices, on a cost-per-gigabyte basis, often are 20 times to 60 times more costly than fixed network prices.
But mobile substitution will contribute to slower growth of fixed broadband accounts in many advanced economies, according to Point Topic.
Other forecasts also suggest slow growth of fixed connections through 2022. Also, significant growth rates occur from a really-low base (almost zero) in 2000, reaching perhaps one billion accounts in 2017.
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